In the recent months leading up to the presidential
election, the Obama administration sought fervently to keep foreign policy out
of the headlines. This meant, among
other things, deferring hard decisions on Iran and Syria, and diverting
investigations into the Benghazi consulate attack. Now as President Obama begins drafting his
second inaugural address and assembling his second term team, he and his
administration are thinking about their legacy when they leave office four
years from now. What kind of foreign
policy accomplishments and what manner of world will they bequeath to the next
president? This is the time to set
priorities and take steps to address those challenges and accomplish those
goals, and the strategic planners on the administration's national security
team are (or should be) now undertaking those kinds of assessments.
Immediate decisions will need to be made on a number of
headline issues, such as Iran, Syria, and Afghanistan (see this
article by Max Boot on those topline challenges, and see Dan Twining's
informed cautions on Afghanistan here),
and everyone knows that the vexing U.S.-China relationship will preoccupy much
presidential time over the next four years. Yet there are a number of other issues -- both challenges and
opportunities -- that while far from the headlines should be near to the Obama administration's planning for the next four years. Here are five opportunities and needs:
Jihadism and the war
of ideas. Four years ago, I
expressed the hope that the new Obama administration would do a better job than
we had in the Bush administration at building a strategic framework for
engaging in the "war of ideas," specifically by building a multifaceted
campaign and policy infrastructure to delegitimize the appeal of violent
jihadism to would-be terrorists. Two
years later, the onset of the "Arab Spring" seemed to offer a singular
opportunity to further marginalize jihadist ideology, given that it caught
extremist groups by surprise and put the lie to much of the jihadist grievance
narrative. Now things look much
worse. Jihadist groups adapted and have
now capitalized on the Arab Awakenings to expand their recruiting and bases of
support. The Obama administration's
tactical focus on targeting Al Qaeda and affiliate leaders through drone
strikes has not been accompanied by an effective counter-radicalization
strategy. Now that the White House seems
to be quietly (and wisely) abandoning its earlier intentions of declaring
premature victory against Al Qaeda, the second term presents the opportunity
and need to finally build a comprehensive strategy and system to fight and win
the war of ideas.
North Korea. Now into the third generation of the vile Kim
dictatorship, North Korea is the most vicious and unstable nuclear state on the
planet. Like the Clinton and Bush 43
administrations before it, the Obama Administration has thus far pursued an
erratic policy (or series of policies rather) consisting variously of benign
neglect, containment, engagement and inducements, and sanctions and
isolation. Yet the passing of time has
not made the North Korean regime any less menacing. Considering its recent record of illegal
nuclear and missile tests, attacks on South Korea, and nuclear proliferation to
Syria, North Korea can be counted on to stir up further mischief -- or worse --
in the next four years. China remains
the key hinge of leverage on the Kim regime, and the Obama administration
should put North Korea on the top of its agenda items for the first meeting
with new Chinese ruler Xi Jinping. Perhaps now is also an opportune time for renewed American pressure on
North Korea, through stepped-up smart sanctions that target the gangster state's
ill-gotten gains, and a multilateral human rights initiative that highlights
the torment of the North Korean people.
Latin America. A
truism in American diplomacy is how virtually every presidential administration
takes office promising to elevate its focus on Latin America -- and virtually
every administration then gets distracted by other priorities and other regions. Meanwhile the United States' influence in the
region is diminished, even while our hemisphere is replete with all manner of
opportunity and challenge, from dynamic emerging economies like Brazil to
autocratic mischief-makers like Venezuela. I have no doubt that the Latin America specialists at the State
Department and NSC have conceived a number of potential initiatives to deepen
American engagement in the region; the question is will those memos get read by
President Obama and the new Secretary of State?
India. One of the Obama administration's major first term mistakes was letting the U.S.-India
relationship fall from dynamism into drift. As Dan Twining has described,
a combination of blunders and neglect by the White House arrested the positive
trajectory that had been established by the Bush administration -- and of course
India's sclerotic politics bears a good deal of the blame as well. But now a renewed sense of purpose and
political courage from the ruling Congress Party, exemplified by a revitalized
government and a new
basket of long overdue economic reforms, indicates that India may once
again be a willing and able strategic partner. Will the Obama administration reciprocate?
Free trade. Here I'm tossing the White House a
second-term softball (or maybe I'm just indulging in that cheap pundit trick of
urging an administration to do what it is already doing). Yes, the Obama team's record on free trade in
its first term was largely abysmal: no new free trade agreements initiated, and
only grudging support and relitigation for the FTAs
inherited from the Bush administration. But as Dan Drezner pointed
out the other week, the Obama administration appears to be working on trade liberalization policy initiatives
on a range of fronts. Among other things
a second term brings freedom from catering to the protectionism of the
Democratic Party's labor union base, and an opportunity to pursue a far-reaching
trade liberalization agenda.
Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.