Against the East Asia 'pivot'

Posted By Daniel Blumenthal Friday, November 18, 2011 - 1:54 PM Share

There has been much ado in the media and from the Obama administration about a great strategic shift from the Middle East and South Asia to East Asia. Obama and senior administration officials are making the case for this shift by claiming that we have accomplished our Iraq and Afghanistan goals, and that the time has come to focus on the "real problem": China. This week, the president announced the basing of 2,500 marines in Australia and a pushed for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional free trade agreement that excludes China. The U.S. military has also released some details on its new AirSea battle concept -- an answer to the dense network of submarines, mines, anti-aircraft capabilities, and missiles that China has created to keep the United States out of China's periphery. All of these moves are to be commended. However, they do not and should not add up to a new "pivot." Here are some reasons why:

1) There is no way for the U.S. to project the necessary influence into East Asia if Aghanistan and Pakistan are on fire. One major reason is that if India is tied down in a competition with Pakistan, China, and Iran in Afghanistan, it cannot become the kind of East Asian power we wish it to be. The Bush administration's India strategy was designed to help India break out of its squabbles in South Asia and exert influence in East Asia. A hasty pull-out of Aghanistan will reverse that sensible strategy.

2) China is exercising more influence in the Middle East in ways harmful to our larger goals (e.g., support of Iran). To compete with China in East Asia, we must retain our influence in the Middle East and South Asia and check destabilizing Chinese diplomacy.

3) The deployment of U.S. Marines to Australia and the highlighting of a military concept to respond to China's military build-up are necessary but insufficient first steps. These developments cannot make up for the fact that our military has faced deep cuts in its budget and will face more. No matter what administration officials say, these cuts will affect our posture in Asia profoundly. We need more ships, more aircraft, more missile defense. To be a bit flippant, we are putting Marines in Australia without sufficient equipment to get out of Australia. Our allies and China need to see and feel our presence. That can only be accomplished with more sea patrols, surges in exercises that promote freedom of navigation, and so on.

4) The AirSea battle concept is a serious effort to meet the China challenge. But based on information released about it, the concept suffers from two flaws. First, the resource question -- how would we shut down Chinese military operations without sufficient platforms and munitions? Second, AirSea battle fails to take into account China's nuclear ambitions. China is already a nuclear-armed country with every incentive to continue its build-up of nuclear forces. That is because we have agreed on a bilateral (with Russia) rather than multilateral basis to cap our nuclear forces. Since China is bound by no important arms control treaties, and because we are openly talking about major conventional strikes on the Mainland, China has every reason to seek nuclear parity with us over time.

5) The TPP is a great idea. In particular, securing Japanese agreement to an FTA would be a great success . The question is, are we serious? It took the better part of Obama's term to ratify the FTA with South Korea. Are we really to believe that he will take on his base and sign more major FTAs?

There is no dispute that we need to take serious steps to balance China's power. But we cannot do so by "pivoting" away from two critical areas of the world. We need India to have peaceful borders in order to compete with China, and we need to diminish China's influence in the Middle East. And finally, the Obama Administration needs to resource its stated Asia strategy, which it so far shows little sign of doing. 

JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images

EXPLORE:EAST ASIA, CHINA, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY
 

WOLFBOY

8:09 PM ET

November 18, 2011

India

The best way to advance peaceful borders for India would be to push for a mediated resolution of the Kashmir dispute, and broader alleviation of tensions with Pakistan. Sadly, neither Bush nor Obama has put any appreciable effort into this. It's not clear that continued US military presence in Afghanistan accomplishes anything useful with respect to this issue.

 

EZRA

3:13 AM ET

November 19, 2011

?

"our military has faced deep cuts in its budget"

Would you kindly point out on the following table just when these "deep cuts" have taken place?

Nat. Defense + War Supplement =
FY 2001 411 + 21 = 432
FY 2002 436 + 16 = 452
FY 2003 469 + 84 = 553
FY 2004 503 + 72 = 575
FY 2005 464 + 107 = 571
FY 2006 489 + 118 = 607
FY 2007 499 + 166 = 665
FY 2008 547 + 174 = 721
FY 2009 572 + 140 = 712
FY 2010 689 + 33 = 722
FY 2011 720 + n/a = 720

 

ARVAY

12:35 PM ET

November 19, 2011

the fastest route

. . to enable a "pivot" from the ME would be to finally abandon the israel albatross.

 

MARTY MARTEL

4:39 PM ET

November 19, 2011

China-Pakistan axis is against America

Mr. Blumenthal misleads by stating that ‘Bush administration's India strategy was designed to help India break out of its squabbles in South Asia and exert influence in East Asia’.

Because Bush administration continued to mollycoddle Pakistan at the expense of Afghanistan and India.

It is only under Obama administration that U. S. has finally come to publicly accept Pakistani State for what it really is - a terrorist haven and the SPONSOR/SUPPORTER of Taliban/Al Qaeda terrorists.

While Obama administration still mollycoddles Pakistan just like Bush, America’s problems in Afghanistan and India unable to exercise its influence in East Asia, will continue as long as Bush/Obama’s America continues to refuse to lump Pakistan with Pakistan’s all-weather friend China.

America has to take Pakistan to task for advising Afghanistan not long ago to break with U. S. and join China-Pakistan axis.

America has to accept that Pakistan decided long time ago to befriend China at the expense of America and Afghanistan.

 

WALTSWRONGWITHTHISPICTURE

7:24 PM ET

November 19, 2011

We are not at war with china, we ARE at war with islam

we need to be in the right theatre.

PR is all this admin does well.

 

SEA_CHINESE

3:47 AM ET

November 20, 2011

"Enemy" Is Not A Trade-Marked Concept

Many in America use the term "enemy" with a tone of an absolute truth. This is very much like when Christians use the word "God". It is capitalized; it is absolute and therefore indisputably universal. In fact, so universal that anyone who does not believe in that "God" is essentially believing in entity that is the opposite of god. So when America see China as an enemy and a "problem", China can easily do the same to America.

Lets not forget: The last time China fought a war with America was in the middle of last century. Back then China was so much poorer in terms of economic and technological powers when compared to America.

Chinese understand the immense difficulty in settling a historical territorial dispute. This difficulty is not uniquely Chinese; it is all over the world. A territorial dispute can never ever have a crisply satisfactory result for all parties that are directly involved. A winner-takes-all approach that is favored by the West is not an option that Chinese will take. Chinese instead favor a "lets develop together for mutual prosperity" approach. No one gains all of it, but everyone shares some of it. That is an admirable approach in my eye but one that has now invited criticism from some Chinese as being "weak". And because of this perceived "weakness", China unavoidably invites behaviors from countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines.

I am from Malaysia. I remember a period when ASEAN was practically ignored by non-regional power countries. America has always maintained some military bases in this region, though. The Taiwan issue and the fact that Japan is a staunch U.S. ally--and the fact that Sough Korea also wants to be a U.S. ally--have caused Chinese to see America as a potential enemy. And a "problem" that will never go away.

China's rise as brought ASEAN onto the world stage. I can see why some ASEAN leaders have behaved with a sense of importance. Filipinos have always been seen by other Southeast Asians as the "sick man" of ASEAN, while Vietnamese have been held at arms length. There was a time when Malaysia did not allow the Vietnamese "boat people" to land. A fact that I am very much ashamed of.

If India is now being brought into the island disputes in South China Sea as a "East Asian" country, China can also bring importance to Central Asia, which includes Iran and many West Asian (AKA Middle-eastern) countries by referring to itself as a "Central Asian" or "West Asian" country. Geographically, Iran is mid-point between Europe and China.

In fact, when China is being seen as a "Central Asian" or "West Asian" country, I believe that China has the ability to elevate the West Asian countries as a important region that the rest of the world powers cannot ignore.

If the importance of ASEAN is due to China, then China can bring--or cause, if you want to be sinister--that same importance to Central/West Asia as well. Therefore, it is vital that China puts more energy in widening the scope of SCO.

 

WALTSWRONGWITHTHISPICTURE

2:53 PM ET

November 21, 2011

"pivot" is another obama admin PR tactic, not a sound strategy

pivot from what? to where? at the expense of whom? why?

 

JANIELLE

10:29 PM ET

November 24, 2011

China-Pakistan

i Agree in Afghanistan and India unable to exercise its influence in East Asia, will continue as long as Bush/Obama’s America continues to refuse to lump Pakistan with Pakistan’s all-weather friend China....Thanks! Ar Condicionado Imoveis Massagista Acompanhantes Ar Condicionado Automotivo

 

SIEGFRIEDCANNON

7:58 AM ET

December 16, 2011

While Obama administration

While Obama administration still mollycoddles Pakistan just like Bush, America’s problems in Afghanistan and India unable to exercise its influence in East Asia, will continue as long as Bush/Obama’s America webhostingplay continues to refuse to lump Pakistan with Pakistan’s all-weather friend China.

 

Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.

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