Posted By Peter Feaver Share

In a recent post, I flagged an inconvenient fact that is rarely touted in White House press releases: the extent to which President Obama's greatest foreign policy successes have come when he followed in his predecessor's footsteps while his most frustrating foreign policy set-backs have come when he charted a whole new path.

There is nothing particularly novel about a White House giving itself credit for inventing wheels (the Bush administration had the same reflex), though the Obama team has been especially loathe to note any parallels with its predecessor ... except in one particular area. In public and private settings, Obama supporters have taken pains to remind people that it was President Bush who negotiated and signed the 2008 Status of Forces Agreement (SoFA) Strategic Framework Agreement that obligates U.S. forces to leave Iraq by the end of 2011. Indeed, some have claimed that this is an inconvenient fact of its own, at least for Republican critics who want to charge that Obama is being reckless in his Iraq policy.

The implicit message is obvious: "we can't be criticized for ending the war in this way because, after all, we are just following the treaty obligations that Bush agreed to. If they were good enough for Bush, they are good enough for us."

That's not quite fair to the Bush policy, however. The Bush team viewed the 2008 SFA, and in particular the 2011 sunset, as a least-worst deal that they could strike with Maliki in advance of Iraqi elections. It was widely understood - and this understanding was directly encouraged by Iraqi interlocutors - that the SFA would be renegotiated after the Iraqi elections, when the new Iraqi government would have a bit more freedom to take necessary but unpopular decisions like allowing a follow-on stabilization force. Bush officials disagreed amongst themselves as to how forthcoming the Iraqis would be in a follow-on deal, but most agreed that it was imperative that a serious attempt be made to renegotiate the SFA at the earliest possible moment.

You don't have to take my word for it. If the plan all along had been simply to implement the 2008 SFA, why did President Obama send a team to Iraq to negotiate a new agreement? Why did the military plan on leaving a residual force? Indeed, as Tom Ricks quotes a colleague as asking, if that was really the plan then why the heck didn't the military plan on leaving at the end of 2011?

In other words, it sure looks like Obama supporters are trying to hide behind the Bush policy, trying to share credit (blame?) for a policy that might be problematic and in need of a little bolstering.

I find it curious that this would be one of the few places where the current team hugs the previous one, and it reminded me of a similar moment in the Bush era. Back in the day, a standard talking point was that it was silly to claim that Bush "lied" about Iraqi WMD because his description of the Iraqi threat was consonant with Clinton's. Moreover, President Bush secured a strong bipartisan Congressional vote in support of confronting Iraq. After reading the same intelligence Bush read, a large number of Democratic leaders voted to endorse the very description of the Iraqi threat that they later pretended was a Bush fabrication. This bit of spin had the virtue of being true, but that didn't mean that every time it was deployed that Democrat leaders merrily conceded the point.

One of those leaders was Senator Clinton who struggled throughout the 2008 primary campaign to explain her 2002 vote. It is not an exaggeration to say that her inability to satisfy Democratic primary voters on this matter explains why President Obama is her boss. Yet her own effort at spin was not without merit. She said that she viewed the 2002 vote as an authorization to confront Iraq with coercive diplomacy -- threatening Iraq with dire consequences unless it revived the dormant inspections regime -- not an authorization to go to war and impose regime change. In other words, she saw this bill as one step in the process, not a blank check -- the next word, not the last word, on the subject.

Do you see the interesting parallel between her frustration with how her vote got used by defenders of the Bush policy and the current frustration of Bush-era policymakers with the way the Iraq SFA is used by defenders of the Obama policy? Obama supporters are now doing the exact same maneuver, mimicking the style as much as the substance of an administration they have hitherto denounced as a matter of course.

As I hope to outline in future posts, I think this pattern holds more widely than the current team would want to admit. In structuring their policy to leave Iraq, there is an uncanny echo to many of the most trenchant critiques that were leveled against how we entered Iraq.

President Obama's best campaign line about Iraq was that he promised to leave Iraq more responsibly than we entered. Far from fulfilling that promise, to a remarkable degree, I think we may be on track to leave Iraq rather in the fashion that critics claim we entered it.

Update: The agreement Bush negotiated in 2008 was a Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA), not a Status of Forces Agreement (SoFA) as I erroneously called it above.  What remained to be negotiated after 2008 was a follow-on Strategic Framework Agreement that would include a Status of Forces Agreement that would permit U.S. military units to remain in Iraq after 2011.  Despite lengthy deliberations, the U.S. and Iraqi negotiators were unable to agree on the terms and that is what precipitated President Obama's recent announcement.

ALI AL-SAADI/AFP/Getty Images

 

SCOOP

8:21 PM ET

November 3, 2011

Obama's Tragic Iraq Withdrawal

by MAX BOOT (WSJ) OCTOBER 31, 2011

"So why was it possible for the Bush administration to reach a deal with the Iraqis but not for the Obama administration? Quite simply it was a matter of will: President Bush really wanted to get a deal done, whereas Mr. Obama did not. Mr. Bush spoke weekly with Mr. Maliki by video teleconference. Mr. Obama had not spoken with Mr. Maliki for months before calling him in late October to announce the end of negotiations. The administration didn't even open talks on renewing the Status of Forces Agreement until this summer, a few months before U.S. troops would have to start shuttering their remaining bases to pull out by Dec. 31. The previous agreement, in 2008, took a year to negotiate."

 

WOLFBOY

1:16 AM ET

November 4, 2011

Exit vs. Entry - more popular

I don't doubt that some Bush officials believed that there would be an extension beyond 2011, only that this notion was ever realistic.

Dr. Feaver and his like would have us believe that more negotiating effort could have persuaded a popularly elected Iraqi government to grant immunity to an extended troop presence. I find this implausible. Immunity for US forces is very unpopular in Iraq, and a full US departure by year's end is popular, and these sentiments affect the agreements the Iraqi government is willing to make.

Withdrawal by the new year is popular in the US too, garnering around 75% support. This far exceeds the popularity of the initial invasion, even before the WMD claims collapsed.

Rather than hiding behind what "critics claim" Dr. Feaver, let's stipulate to how, in fact, the US entered Iraq:
With a casus belli later shown to be based on false claims;
Without an implementable plan to provide security or stability;
With so little capability to control borders that we were reduced to pleading with Syria -- which we had implied might be next on the list -- to control their side;
With no realistic estimate of the cost in lives and dollars;
In a manner that led to abuse and torture of detainees in the custody of both the US and post-Saddam Iraqi authorities;
In a manner that inflamed sectarian tensions leading to massive bloodshed and dislocation.

I can scarcely fathom how we might exit less responsibly than we entered.

 

NBGRTYUGD

4:00 AM ET

November 5, 2011

http://www.yahoofashion.net Coach Outlet fgyhrdhds fg

http://www.yahoofashion.net

Nike s h o x(R4, NZ, OZ, TL1, TL2, TL3) $35.
Handbags(Coach lv fendi d&g) $35.
Tshirts (Polo , ed hardy, lacoste) $16.
free shipping.you will get nice

xdjkhf kjsfgn rta fgnjes arklcfjg lksej jfcgnjkaseh klawfjngkjsh

 

WOLFBOY

1:27 PM ET

November 5, 2011

Consider correcting your correction, Dr. Feaver

The US and Iraq entered into two agreements: The Withdrawal Agreement (http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/122074.pdf) and the Strategic Framework Agreement (http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/122076.pdf).

The former is, in effect, a Status of Forces Agreement for the period through the end of 2011.

The latter is focused on cooperation in non-security areas, and does not concern, in any detail, the status of US forces. Nor it does not have a termination date, so there is no basis for asserting the need for a "follow-on Strategic Framework Agreement."

Rather, what would presumably be required to accommodate an extended US troop presence would be a new Status of Forces Agreement to supersede the withdrawal provisions in the Withdrawal Agreement.

 

Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.

Read More