Posted By José R. Cárdenas Share

Many of the news reports on Argentinean President Cristina Kirchner's landslide reelection victory this past weekend contained a healthy dose of skepticism on the sustainability of her populist economic model. The skepticism is well-founded. We've all seen this movie before, and know exactly how it ends.

Heavy state intervention in the economy, massive subsidies, and the redistribution of income -- the hallmarks of economic populism -- have a way of playing themselves out, proving time and time again that lasting prosperity can never be built on acquiring unlimited debt or just printing more money.

As UCLA economist Sebastian Edwards, a Chilean, writes in his brilliant takedown of Latin American populism, Left Behind: Latin America and the False Promise of Populism, all populist experiments begin with great euphoria and surges in economic growth, but invariably lead to rapid inflation, higher unemployment, and lower wages -- and soon thereafter, stagnation and crisis.

There is no question that right now times are good in Argentina. Since the country hit rock bottom in 2002, when it defaulted on $100 billion in debt, the largest sovereign debt default in history, the country has undergone a seemingly remarkable turnaround under the stewardship of the late Nestor Kirchner and now his widow, Cristina. The economy is expected to grow by 8 percent this year and unemployment is at a 20-year low.

But the problem is that Argentina's economic success has been built not on strong fundamentals, but on a tenuous foundation of heavy government spending, high commodity prices, and strong demand from China and Brazil for soy and other agricultural products. And what goes up in economics can always come down.

Other troubling signs are double-digit inflation, which private economists put at 25 to 30 percent; capital flight ($9.8 billion was pulled out of the economy in the first half of this year, compared with $11.4 billion in all of 2010); and plummeting foreign investment (down 30 percent in the first half of 2011).

The other elephant in the living room is the fact that Argentina has been shut out of credit markets since it left bondholders holding the bag in billions of dollars of unpaid debt from its 2002 default. Not only has there been no reconciliation, but the Kirchner government has gone out of its way to reject lawsuits and other claims from creditors. As a result, the Obama administration and multilateral lenders have refused further loans until Argentina begins to repay what it owes investors and settle with holders of defaulted debt, as well as adhere to its obligations with institutions such as the International Monetary Fund.

Yet despite warnings by economists that the government's profligate spending, coupled with a global economic slump, could spell disaster, the Kirchner administration soldiers on. Indeed, why wouldn't it see her overwhelming reelection victory as anything but a mandate to continue its unorthodox ways? "After a lifetime of pushing those ideas," she said after her victory, "We now see that they were not a mistake and that we are on the right path."

On the other side, former President Eduardo Duhalde, who unsuccessfully challenged Kirchner, said, "We're happily dancing on the Titanic."

Given the prevailing capital flight and declining investment in Argentina, the smart money is obviously on Duhalde. Fortunately, those players are in a position to avoid the risk; what's unfortunate are the millions of poor and middle-class Argentineans who will once again pay the price for Argentina's populist folly when the inevitable day of reckoning returns.

 

TECHMANE

4:47 PM ET

October 28, 2011

great progress

Argentina’s economic success should be inspring EU countries as well.
hayat

 

SCOOP

7:12 PM ET

October 28, 2011

Argentine Central Bank Targets Tighter Exchange Rules

by Bill Faries and Silvia Martinez (Bloomberg) October 28, 2011,

"Argentina stepped up its efforts to stem capital flight and shore up the peso by tightening restrictions on foreign-exchange purchases in South America’s second-biggest economy. Investors purchasing companies or real estate will be required to deposit the full amount of the sale in Argentina, according to a statement sent by the central bank yesterday. The measures target the unregulated foreign exchange market, which investors and companies use to skirt currency limits. The move came one day after President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who won re-election on Oct. 23, issued a decree requiring energy and mining companies to keep all of their export revenue in the country as capital flight accelerates to $3 billion per month, according to estimates by Banco de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires."

 

KILGORE_NOBIZ

10:51 PM ET

October 28, 2011

Where have I seen this before?

"Heavy state intervention in the economy, massive subsidies, and the redistribution of income -- the hallmarks of economic populism -- have a way of playing themselves out, proving time and time again that lasting prosperity can never be built on acquiring unlimited debt or just printing more money."

Anyone know where George Soros, Cass Sunstein and Moveon.org stand on this?

 

WAVILES

5:06 AM ET

October 30, 2011

What happened in the 1990s?

Didn't you market fundamentalists take your shot in the 1990s under Menem? Oh, right it actually led to an economic catastrophe leading to the removal of three Argentinian presidents in less than a month, mass unemployment and incredible inequality...why do you think the Kirschners were in a position to pursue the policy agenda that they have been pursuing?

Its unfortunate, though not surprising, that this history of relative market orthodoxy didn't merit attention in this post. Also, for those interested in a counter-argument to Edwards see here: http://www.princeton.edu/~kohli/SCIDCardosoPaper_text.pdf

Enjoy.

 

GEORGE HANDLEY

3:02 PM ET

October 30, 2011

Argentina Woes

I fully agree with the article. As an Argentine living in Europe I daily read what is going on in my country, and as indicated, we have all seen this movie before. I particularly remeber the era of Isabel Martinez de Peron and "the Rodrigazo" where everything was perfect and everybody had a lot of money to spend. All of a sudden, reality hit the country and once again - it happens every 10 years - Argentina was bankrupt. The "tail wind" that has been helping the Kirchners these past years has been the top prices paid for cereals, Argentina's largest export but even that is coming to a halt if we check tha soybean decreased over 100 dollars a ton in the past month. Argentina will shortly be facing another 10-year crisis. Unfortunately.

 

SCOOP

7:07 PM ET

October 31, 2011

Buying Dollars in Argentina Just Got a Lot Tougher

by MICHAEL WARREN (AP) Oct 31, 2011

"Flexing its enforcement power only days after winning re-election by a landslide, Argentina launched a new crackdown on capital flight, tax evasion and money laundering on Monday, requiring people buying dollars to first prove they're up to date on their taxes. That's only a paperwork problem for people and businesses that are fully compliant on their taxes. But tax evasion runs rampant in Argentina, as in many countries in the developing world, with an estimated 34 percent of the Argentine economy operating in undeclared cash. Many of these scofflaws are expected to turn even more to the black market for their dollars, but the government is cracking down there as well, arresting operators who have long facilitated illegal money flows."

 

Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.

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