What role will national security issues play in the 2012 presidential campaign? Probably a small one, at most. All current signs point to both the primary and general elections turning on the economy -- especially jobs, the deficit and debt, and ObamaCare. Yet even if foreign policy is stuck at the back of the campaign bus, it won't be entirely absent. One of the leadership intangibles that voters will be assessing includes who they trust as president to have his or her "finger on the button," i.e., to fulfill the roles of commander-in-chief and diplomat-in-chief. Moreover, a foreign policy crisis -- such as an Iranian nuclear breakthrough, a terrorist attack, or any other unforeseen headline event -- could thrust national security back into the forefront of campaign debate.

As the GOP primary field takes shape, the candidates are spending most of their time figuring out how to distinguish themselves from each other. But it is not too early to begin thinking about how they should be distinguishing themselves from President Obama. Herewith a few foreign policy themes that GOP presidential candidates should consider highlighting as challenges to the Obama administration:

Diminished American power. America's economic woes are also a foreign policy concern. Historically, our nation's global strength has come from our economic prosperity, our values, and our military. The Obama administration's economic record of high unemployment, low growth, and crippling debt hurts most at home but also weakens our standing abroad. Yet in foreign policy terms, the White House seems to be acquiescent in this diminishing of American power. In the now infamous New Yorker article on the Obama administration's foreign policy, author Ryan Lizza portrays the White House holding the strategic assumption that American decline is a current reality and an inevitable future. The administration's embrace of this risks making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. During his final weeks as Secretary of Defense, Bob Gates raised his own pointed concerns about American decline:

I've spent my entire adult life with the United States as a superpower, and one that had no compunction about spending what it took to sustain that position … It didn't have to look over its shoulder because our economy was so strong. This is a different time … To tell you the truth, that's one of the many reasons it's time for me to retire, because frankly I can't imagine being part of a nation, part of a government … that's being forced to dramatically scale back our engagement with the rest of the world."

The Obama administration has presided over declining American power in specific ways such as Pentagon budget cuts, a burgeoning national debt, and new lows in American soft power in key regions such as the Middle East. Even more fundamentally, as Ryan Streeter laments over at the indispensable ConservativeHomeUSA, under Obama the United States seems to be losing its character as an aspirational nation and global model.

Declining American leadership. Rarely in the annals of American diplomacy has an unattributed quote from a "senior White House official" become an instant headline, persisted as an unflattering tagline for the Obama Doctrine, and offered campaign fodder for every possible GOP candidate. But that's exactly what "leading from behind" has become, following its appearance in the aforementioned New Yorker article. No doubt the official who uttered it at the time thought that he/she was coming up with a clever formulation to satisfy multiple constituencies while displaying the administration's strategic acumen. When it reality what it did is distill and confirm the worst suspicions of many observers of this administration's foreign policy: the White House is uncomfortable displaying American leadership in the world. This is manifest in ways including France and Britain's leadership of the Libya campaign and continued frustration over American passivity, in the White House's reluctance to provide visible support for dissidents in Iran and Syria, and in the worries from our Asian partner nations such as India and Japan about the strength of America's commitments. Yet a world without American leadership will be a less secure, less prosperous, less peaceful, and less free world.

Politics trumping policy. Too often this administration seems to let political considerations play too large of a role in foreign policy decisions. Such as the White House's decision on the Afghanistan force drawdown timetable, which appears to favor the political calendar over the operational calendar and the military's best advice. Domestic politics also seems to be influencing the administration's half-hearted posture in Libya, even as our allies the French and British, along with the Libyan rebels themselves, repeatedly beg for more American support.

Deferring problems. A recent Washington Post editorial observes that the White House is "quietly toasting" its Iran sanctions policy. Which would be fine if the threat from Iran -- as a state sponsor of terrorism, as a regional hegemon, as an aspiring nuclear power -- was diminishing. But as the editorial notes, "the threat from Iran is not diminishing but growing. Where is the policy to reverse that alarming trend?" Unfortunately the Obama administration seems content to kick the Iran problem down the road. The strategic assumption behind this is unclear, though it most likely reflects the administration's unspoken resignation that Iran will get the bomb, or the audacious hope that Tehran will moderate its behavior.

Flailing on free trade. The Obama administration has consistently snatched defeat from the jaws of victory on free trade. After taking office skeptical of free trade (remember Obama's promise to renegotiate NAFTA?), the administration first let languish the three FTAs negotiated by the Bush administration with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama. Then, after belatedly realizing that its neglect of these FTAs was hurting the American economy, relationships with key allies, and our global posture, the White House came around to supporting the passage of the FTAs. That is, until it didn't again, deciding instead to encumber the legislation with further concessions to labor unions and procedural maneuvers that undermined good faith with Republican supporters, as Phil Levy has described.

As the points above show, GOP candidates have ample material to critique the Obama administration's foreign policy. However, there is a final point to bear in mind: just because the Obama administration does something, does not mean it is a bad policy. A fundamental mistake the Obama administration succumbed to upon taking office was an immature "Anything But Bush" posture, as the White House reflexively rejected almost every Bush administration policy -- several of which it later came back to embrace. Republicans shouldn't make the same mistake with the Obama administration, either as candidates or upon potentially winning the White House back. On some policies -- such as maintaining the Bush administration's counter-terrorism structure, killing Osama bin Laden, taking steps to counter Chinese adventurism in Asia, and the effort for success in Afghanistan -- the Obama team has done well, or well enough. GOP candidates should offer agreement where agreement is merited, since as the above points show, there is plenty else to disagree with.

EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images

 

ZATHRAS

3:53 AM ET

July 28, 2011

Voice of the Screw-Ups

Actually, I had thought the most effective way to attack President Obama's foreign policy would be to accuse him of not being up to the job of damage control required because he succeeded George W. Bush.

Bush was a first class screw-up on foreign policy. Lots of the people who worked for him were screw-ups as well. They left America in a dramatically weaker position in the world than it had been when the much-criticized Bill Clinton left office -- and this was before it became clear that Bush also wrecked the American economy. They never thought twice about using the American military as a campaign prop, about accusing other Americans who had not been on watch for 9/11 of being soft on terrorism, or about making up stories for domestic political consumption about "freedom on the march" in Iraq and Iraqi support of al Qaeda. Bush let Afghanistan drift for years, giving the enemy there time to recover, and his administration evidently spent its last two years locked in an never-resolved internal debate about whether to launch a preemptive war against Iran.

Will Inboden has apparently appointed himself Voice of the Screw-ups. He clearly has the brazen quality required for the role. Much like his former chief, Inboden never takes responsibility for anything, and proclaims his aspirations as his party's principles. This would be of small moment if the Bush administration were truly history, and no future Republican administration were likely to populate the State and Defense Departments, the National Security Council or the other departments and agencies involved in foreign affairs with the people who helped Bush screw up for eight years. If Inboden represented only former officials and not possible future officials, he could be the Voice of the Screw-ups to his heart's content, and no harm would be done.

The fact is, though, that there is no "un-Bush" school of thought among Republicans young enough to serve in a future GOP administration. All the people likely to advise the Republican nominee in 2012 either worked in Bush's administration or are closely identified with the Bush political machine. The next Republican Presidential nominee will campaign against Obama on a platform of returning to foreign policy the way Bush practiced it. He, or she, will campaign for a return to screwing up.

At least they will have clarity on their side, particularly if someone like Michele Bachman -- as comprehensively ignorant about foreign and national security policy as Bush was when he first sought the Presidency -- is the nominee. It's not clear to me how far behind some of her competitors are in the race to be most like Bush in that regard. Since they will be spending most of their time in the near future urging the United States government to default on its debts and otherwise screw up domestic policy rather than foreign affairs, we may have to wait a while before we find that out. Will Inboden can fill in meanwhile.

 

BUBBLE BURSTER

5:20 PM ET

July 30, 2011

It is 2011 not 2008

I know the rabid left really misses GWB. It seems no conversation on foreign policy can occur without a reference to him. Of course Zathras makes the common error that most of these folks do that somehow arguing Bush was worse say ANYTHING about Obama's foreign policy performance.

It is completely irrelevant how good or bad you think Bush was. The point here is how well or poorly THIS President has done.

The level of naivete and poor policy on many foreign policy issues has nothing to do with Bush. Talk to the Iranians...yeah that really helped non[proliferation. Any idiot could have predicted that. Reset with Russia...hows that going? Half-hearted surge then withdrawal announcement in Afghanistan...worst of both worlds. Libya???? How are you going blame that on Bush? Peace process...naivete in spades. In all of these issues Obama had a free hand and was not unduly encumbered with Bush legacies...he owns them for better or worse and he deserves to be judged on this performance.

It seems to me that the left's fixation with Bush is a useful ploy to attempt to distract attention for a very poor Obama Administration foreign policy.

 

ELAINE ZITOMER

5:51 PM ET

July 30, 2011

Fantasy World

These Republicans live in a fantasy world in which America can be "powerful" again by waving guns, global warming won't happen if we don't believe in it, defaulting on our economic obligations isn't such a bad thing because we don't want it to be, etc, etc... This is no different than when Reagan declared that there was no hunger in America, no different than "trickle down economics" and the laughable Laffer curve. Another favorite of mine: that if we don't extend unemployment benefits, people will be more motivated to go back to work so our unemployment numbers will go down! So many people blinded by their ideology and their wishful thinking.

Of course, not every judgment made by Obama in his foreign policy has been ideal, but not a single decision has been disasterous, either. His policies have been thoughtful and humble. Our situation in the world at large is better than it was two years ago (except for our present debt limit debacle).

 

ZATHRAS

8:49 PM ET

July 30, 2011

I thank the poster upthread

I thank the poster upthread for his response.

It appears that he, by insisting that in addition to addressing the standing of former Bush administration officials to comment on the Obama administration's foreign policy I also comment on the administration's policy myself, is demanding I write longer posts.

This I refuse to do, as a matter of principle. I oppose resolutely the entire idea of long posts on blog comment threads, and would lose all credibility on this point if I started writing longer posts myself.

The only thing I would add is a suggestion to the poster upthread that he refine his conception of "the left." If it really includes me, it includes about 75% of the country. He also appears to believe history began in January 2009, which I'm pretty sure is wrong also. However, perhaps it would be best if he took one thing at a time.

 

THADDEUS HOAGLAND

2:24 AM ET

August 18, 2011

How the GOP should attack Obama's foreign policy in 2012

At one point, Johnson, a libertarian-leaning Republican who backs gay rights and legalizing some drugs, cried foul over not getting as many questions as his fellow debaters. Fox News' anchor Bret Baier said the moderators would be "fair and balanced" with the questions.Paul, the Libertarian Party presidential nominee in 1988, received thunderous applause after most of his answers. His 2008 GOP-run inspired the modern Tea Party movement, and he planned to address the marathon South Carolina Tea Party rally after Thursday's debate. Asked to reconcile his support for the Defense of Marriage Act, a federal law banning gay marriage, and his statements saying the government shouldn't dictate who can get married, Paul said the law protects states' rights."The Defense of Marriage Act was really designed to make sure that the states have the privilege of dealing with and the federal government can't impose their standards on them," he said. The participants agreed that the economy would be the president's biggest weakness in the election. "We're on the verge of a financial collapse unless we balance the budget, and that means some really, really tough decisions," tori black said.Cain, a former Federal Reserve banker and CEO of Godfather's Pizza, criticized Obama's energy plan, which he blamed for rising gas prices."If the world market believed that we were serious about energy independence and we were going to utilize all of our existing resources, the speculators wold stop speculating up and they would speculate down until we get our own oil out of the ground," he said to roaring applause.

 

AXELBROOK

10:15 AM ET

August 19, 2011

No not at all. From the

No not at all. From the beginning I have thought that McCain is using her to get elected. If Obama had chosen Hillary or another woman as his running mate, there was ZERO chance that McCain would have chosen a woman. RIO McCain didn't choose Palin for her political record..

 

Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.

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