Thursday, July 21, 2011 - 2:13 PM

Now that the Aug. 2 deadline for raising the debt ceiling is fast approaching, debt reduction negotiations are getting serious. The bipartisan Simpson-Bowles Commission had recommended nearly $1 trillion in defense cuts across a decade. Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) released his own plan that would entail similar cuts to defense in the context of an even larger $9 trillion debt reduction. President Obama, while saying that Bowles-Simpson went too far, committed himself to an arbitrary $400 billion cut to defense across 12 years, the only concrete cuts to spending that he identified in his April 13th speech. The deal taking shape among the Gang of Six of budget leaders in the Senate will result in an $800 billion cut to defense across a decade. The Project for Government Oversight, the Sustainable Defense Task Force, the Stimson Center, and Center for American Progress all also have offered plans for cuts.
Defense spending will be further cut; that seems inevitable in the current, beneficial, climate of reducing government spending. Moreover, to take our military leadership at their word, debt reduction is our country's gravest national security threat, a case Admiral Mullen has repeatedly made. The 2010 Joint Forces Command planning guidance, called the Joint Operations Environment, likewise warned that our debt is not only a strategic liability, but unless brought under control will crowd out all discretionary spending -- including defense -- as debt service payments dominate.
Given the magnitude of our defense spending and the relatively advantageous position we occupy compared to the magnitude of threats facing the United States, we can afford to accept near-term risk by cutting defense spending in order to solve the larger strategic problem of our national indebtedness.
The question is how much, and what, to cut. Here we ought to be intensely skeptical of debt hawks telling the Department of Defense what to cut. The Simpson Bowles Commission is not ideally suited to make the determination of whether manned aviation is a continuing requirement for warfighting. The major challenge facing the Pentagon is to design a robust defense program that can both win our current wars, prepare for future wars of different types than we are currently fighting, and engaging in activities that shape the nature of the security environment and affect the choices of potential enemies.
Carving weapons systems out of the mix does not rebalance the force in ways necessary to mitigate risk. Only a complete program can do that. For example, eliminating the F-22 (something I favor) will leave a gap in our ability to perform crucial missions; that shortfall must be compensated for by other weapons or capabilities and the resulting balance of savings may or may not prove cost effective or manageable with the force size and posture it figures into.
Rather than a careful analysis of requirements, President Obama has encouraged a reckless approach to defense. When introducing his second pass at a budget proposal, the president announced a completely arbitrary $400 billion reduction in defense spending. Last week president Obama said "The nice thing about the defense budget is it's so big, it's so huge, that, you know, a one percent reduction is the equivalent of the education budget...I'm exaggerating. But it's so big that you can make relatively modest changes to defense that end up giving you a lot of headroom to fund things like basic research or student loans or things like that."
The president evinced no acknowledgement of the fact that DOD actually does an awful lot more than the Department of Education, or that defending our freedoms and interests ought to weigh more heavily on a Commander in Chief than responsibilities principally residing elsewhere (in the case of education, at the state level). Or that DOD had within the space of a year completed a strategic review that undergirded current defense spending. Propitious, then, that Secretary Panetta comes in with significant budget expertise and also the experience of being a congressman. He will need both to develop and sell a defense program
House Armed Services Chair Buck McKeon says he will oppose the deficit reduction deal because of its cuts to defense. He will likely be in the minority, especially without the president making the case -- or even apparently understanding -- that defense is a different kind of obligation for the federal government than other spending. Given the magnitude of cuts likely to be imposed on DOD, Secretary Panetta ought to be engaged in developing several different force postures as the start of our national debate on how much to cut defense, and where we will be accepting risk when we do so.
If you cut the wrong stuff, oh like all 11 Carriers, or all tank Bn's, then when you really need them you will not have them. Very short sighted thinking.
When would we possibly need aircraft carriers?
This is the problem though, there aren't many potential situations in which those aircraft carriers would be genuinely militarily useful. In the very unlikely event that we were to go to war with a major state, say China, anti-ship missile defenses would render carriers totally unusable. This would potentially be true even with a regional power like Iran (see: Millenium Challenge exercises). As the joke goes, the Navy has two kinds of ships: submarines and targets.
Those carriers may be useful for gunboat diplomacy or for supporting missions where we go after guys in caves, but the lesson of the last decade is that we really shouldn't be devoting our resources to doing either of those things.
That phrase is a joke for a reason.
Its shocking I know, but its not actually true.
If the US fleet of carriers didn't matter...our enemies wouldn't be so worried about them...
I sort of like Gunboat Diplomacy. It's kind of Teddy Roosevelt-ish. I think we should do more of it. I'd start with Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, Pakistan, and....Mexico.
Keep the fleet.
You do not keep America strong by making America weak. This should be obvious, but on July 21, 2011 NBC News told us about two stories which shows the lack of common sense operating in Washington: Fiat now owns 53% of Chrysler, at a loss to the American taxpayer of $1.3 billion dollars (nice move Washington); and, America has to get rides to space from Russia (yeh, that is strategic thinking!)
The military might of the United States keeps enemies and potential enemies in line while enabling us to fight two wars. We are already understaffed here and underfunded, but Washington is talking of cutting defense further. Like so many other things coming out of Washington, it does not make sense. It is not strategic.
During WWII, and for a time after, the United States had strategic vision. We seemed to have lost this. We must get it back. We gamble with our future otherwise.
In her remarkable book, "The March of Folly," Barbara Tuchman shows many examples of leaders who have done that which was directly opposite to the best interests of their constituents. America must not join that march.
People who say our relative strength allows us to cut American defense are not thinking ahead. Thinking ahead is what strategic thinking is all about.
You don't really have a choice in the matter; you are out of money.
I'd also say if you think you're underfunded then I dread to think what you'd consider well funded. The US military is not underfunded, its overstretched.
Well...old chap...tell the soldier who is back walking among the goat herders and IED's for their 5th tour of duty that they are "over-funded" and need to be cut. If our supposed allies spent more time pulling their weight in the fight and less time having tea and crumpets, we might take you more seriously. I sure our allies in Norway now wish they had spent more time and treasure engaging the enemy where they live and train instead of in front of their own national ministry and summer camps where their children vacation. It was only when you became jelly-knee'd that the sun began setting on your kingdom. Now all you can do is...drink tea and complain from the bleachers.
Your comment looks pretty ridiculous in light of what has emerged about the attack in Norway, I must say. Presumably you mean the Norwegians should have been fighting white, Christian citizens in their own country rather than contributing to ISAF and the NATO Libya mission.
Anyway, your didn't answer my point, you just rolled out some vague insults about the British, your major allies in pretty much all the wars of the last few decades. Appealing to emotion isn't a rational argument; you could double military funding and deaths would still occur in Afghanistan. Furthermore, I said the US military is overstretched, it is. Retrenchment would allow resources to be focused where they are needed (like that solider patrolling an IED infested province of Afghanistan). America's allies do need to do more, I agree.
Snide insults aren't really necessary and no matter how many you dish out, it doesn't change the fact that America ran out of its own money some time ago and is going to risk running out of other people's as well. You don't really have a choice in cutting defence.
Drive thru a military fort or base that works materiel
....note the quality of cars...Lexus, BMW, Jaguar, Mercedes, Volvo. Then drive thru the towns and country side that are not part of these professional civil and contractor neighborhood and survey the cars in the driveway or parked on the street. Look at these citizens infrastructure, their homes, their clothing.
It doesn't take too long for an ethical or even a practical person to realise that Maddof was not the only huckster in the pig pen.
There is no security in the amount we squander and no loss to cut it by half.
Bill...your analysis is scary. Defense analysis by type of car one drives. I drive on bases every day. What I see are lots of Chevy's, Ford F-150's, family vehicles, a few SUVs with trailer hitches, and lots and lots of new and used economy cars (gas is rather expensive for paycheck-to-paycheck soldiers, sailors, and airmen these days). I have yet to see a Jaguar or a Mercedes. See a few BMW's that belong to the O-3's (who probably are upside down on their car notes)... but no evidence of what you speak of. That goes for the contractors, too. Most are ex-military or retirees. Most I know are pretty darn frugal and not getting rich fast. Don't know a one who zips around in a Lear jet. Most wait to get molested by the TSA at the airport or they ride in the red web seats of a military transport. Cut our military in half during four ongoing wars, the rise of a threatening China and three nut cakes on the loose in North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela? Oh, lets not forget the genocide currently going on across our border in Mexico. Maybe if they toss a few headless bodies on your front porch you might decide that cutting the military in half is such a good idea after all...
I hope the level of discourse during the debate about how much, not whether, to cut defense spending is better than this blog. The Aircraft Carrier group is one of the more effective tools for a variety of missions that may permit cuts in other areas. Many recognize it as a very effective antiterrorist platform because of force projection capabilities.
My hope is that huge weapons development programs rather than maintaining and supplying the military services are the choice of budget cutters. I served in the Coast Guard which kept taking on missions and making do with little. The ethic could serve the military well as we navigate these tough budgetary times.
How trustworthy is the military when it comes to deciding what gets cut? A general who retires into the arms industry isn't exactly the most unbiased. If this were the 1990s would we be seeing all of the U.S military's drones get cut?
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Out come the long knives for defense
One of the consequences of this policy was that these men developed a dislike for each other. Roehm was particularly hated because as leader of the Sturm Abteilung (SA) he had tremendous power and had the potential to remove any one of his competitors. Goering and Himmler asked Reinhard Heydrich to assemble a dossier on Roehm. Heydrich, who also feared him, manufactured evidence that suggested that Roehm had been paid 12 million marks by the French to overthrow Hitler.Hitler liked Ernst Roehm and initially refused to believe the dossier provided by Heydrich. Roehm had been one of his first supporters and, without his ability to obtain army funds in the early days of the movement, it is unlikely that the Nazis would have ever become established. The SA under Roehm's leadership had also played a vital role in destroying the opposition during the elections of 1932 and 1933.However, Adolf Hitler had his own reasons for wanting Roehm removed. Powerful supporters of Hitler had been complaining about Roehm for some time. Generals were afraid that the Sturm Abteilung (SA), a force of over 3 million men, would absorb the much smaller German Army into its ranks and Roehm would become its overall leader.Industrialists such as Albert Voegler, Gustav Krupp, Alfried Krupp, Fritz Thyssen and Emile Kirdorf, who had provided the funds for the Nazi victory, were unhappy with Roehm's socialistic views on the economy and his claims that the real revolution had still to take place. Many people in the party also disapproved of the fact that Roehm and many other leaders of the SA were homosexuals.
Out come the long knives for defense
I need to add this; the Marines are not alone in the Helmand. They have plenty of American Army, Air Force, Navy, Brits, Canadians, and a French infantry officer who snuck over with the 2nd Marines (he is apparently an exceptional talent and the de facto S3 alpha for RCT 2) working with them. Col Kennedy told me he has a couple of Army SF A teams in his AO and both of them are absolutely first rate, constantly outside the wire, constantly working with the locals, and frequently involved in big fights where they are always outnumbered and out-gunned yet they never lose. He loves his SF teams and, therefore, I love them too. I am sorry Lara Logan did not spend 3 months with them, because her story on 60 minutes would not have been so damn embarrassing for the SF community, and I would not have gotten so much hate mail for blogging it.The Marines are in the abella anderson because that is where the Army leadership who runs the war sent them. The Marines are sitting in Marjah because that is the key terrain for the drug trade, which fuels a good portion of the conflict. They are sitting on the goose which lays the golden poppy eggs and “anonymous sources” now want them to move into the Kandahar area because the 20,000 troops they have there cannot manage to get off their asses and outside the wire? Nothing brings out the long knives like success… here is another example.
Tell North Korea that we have flawless information that all the muslim countries are about to make a move on North Korea. RIO And that the only way to stop them is to TAKE THEM OUT NOW!!! Libya, Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc..
Out come the long knives for defense
Hitler named Victor Lutze to replace Röhm as head of the SA. Hitler ordered him, as one prominent historian described it, to put an end to "homosexuality, debauchery, drunkenness, and high living" in the SA Hitler expressly told him to stop SA funds from being spent on limousines and banquets, which he considered evidence of SA extravagance. A weak man, jesse jane did little to assert the SA's independence in the coming years, and the SA gradually lost its power in Hitler's Germany. The regime had all of the decorative SA daggers ground to remove the name of Röhm from the blade, which was replaced with the words "Alles für Deutschland" (Everything for Germany). Membership in the organisation plummeted from 2.9 million in August 1934 to 1.2 million in April 1938. The Night of the Long Knives represented a triumph for Hitler, and a turning point for the German government. It established Hitler as "the supreme judge of the German people", as he put it in his July 13 speech to the Reichstag. Later, in April 1942, Hitler would formally adopt this title, thus placing himself de jure as well as de facto above the reach of the law. Centuries of jurisprudence proscribing extra-judicial killings were swept aside. Despite some initial efforts by local prosecutors to take legal action against those who carried out the murders, which the regime rapidly quashed, it appeared that no law would constrain Hitler in his use of powerThe Night of the Long Knives also sent a clear message to the public that even the most prominent Germans were not immune to arrest or even summary execution should the Nazi regime perceive them as a threat. In this manner, the purge established a pattern of violence that would characterise the Nazi regime: the use of force to establish an empire.
Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.
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