Posted By Paul D. Miller Share

President Obama is apparently going to announce the extent and pace of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan this week. His decision, in December 2009, to begin the withdrawal in July 2011 was never a good idea because it gave the Taliban the incentive to simply wait us out and accelerate the U.S. public's war fatigue. The best Obama can do now is mitigate the damage by highlighting our hard-won progress of the last two years and telling the American people that stability in Afghanistan is both important and possible, that it will take patience, and that our withdrawal will be measured, slow, and not come at the risk of defeat.

We'll see how Obama measures up to this. Meanwhile, an equally interesting question is, how do the Republican presidential candidates measure up? With the exception of Mitt Romney, not very well.

Leading neoconservative Republicans criticized front-runner Mitt Romney for his statement on Afghanistan during the Republican presidential debate last week. But I think his comment was actually one of the better statements on Afghanistan, compared with the others we've heard recently. Here's what he actually said: "It's time for us to bring our troops home as soon as we possibly can, consistent with the word that comes to our generals that we can hand the country over to the [Afghan] military in a way that they're able to defend themselves ... I think we've learned some important lessons in our experience in Afghanistan. I want those troops to come home based upon not politics, not based upon economics, but instead based upon the conditions on the ground determined by the generals. But I also think we've learned that our troops shouldn't go off and try and fight a war of independence for another nation. Only the Afghanis [sic] can win Afghanistan's independence from the Taliban."

In other words, we should 1) heed the military's professional judgment, 2) withdraw based on conditions on the ground, and 3) resist withdrawing just to save a buck, and 4) demand more accountability from the Afghans. That's actually pretty good.

By contrast, Newt Gingrich did not directly address the issue of how many troops should be withdrawn, but he did say regarding foreign policy that "the price tag is always a factor." That's true in a trite and uninteresting sense: You don't want to bankrupt yourself unless your very survival is at stake. But Afghanistan is not bankrupting the U.S. Treasury. Much has been made about the price tag of the Afghanistan war, but the reality is that $100 billion per year is peanuts compared with what Iraq cost at its height and less than peanuts compared with the trillions we spend on entitlements and the broader defense budget. Gingrich seemed to imply that we can't afford the Afghanistan war: No one has yet explained how we can afford the consequences of rapid withdrawal.

Tim Pawlenty also did not directly address the troop withdrawal, but he did at least tie our current foreign-policy challenges to September 11, 2001, suggesting that he understands the war against al Qaeda and affiliated militants has not ended just because Americans are tired of it. That's a good sign. But last month in Iowa he reportedly gave a waffling and confused answer to a question about his position on Afghanistan. He would benefit from better coaching on the issue.

Worse yet was Jon Huntsman, who was not at the debate but recently has expressed skepticism of our "heavy" and "expensive" presence in Afghanistan. He admitted that there is likely to be a civil war in Afghanistan if we leave quickly, but argued that there is not "a whole lot we can do about that." Huntsman is at least honest about the consequences of withdrawal. His view that we can't afford the war is worse than Gingrich's because it is more explicit. But his view that we can't do a whole lot to help avert civil war in Afghanistan is astonishing for its pessimism, ignorance, and flippant dismissal of the consequences of chaos in South Asia. Apparently Huntsman thinks he knows better than Bob Gates, Ryan Crocker, and David Petraeus, who have all testified recently that we have made real and tangible progress in Afghanistan and that the war is winnable. He also apparently believes he knows better than his former boss, Barack Obama, who has repeatedly stressed the importance of a responsible transition to Afghan leadership. Huntsman gives no evidence of even caring or believing that what happens in Afghanistan is important to American interests.

(Isolationist Ron Paul, whose candidacy is as serious as Herman Cain's, predictably said he would withdraw immediately from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. I've been unable to find a recent statement by Michele Bachmann on Afghanistan.)

As I predicted, most of the Republicans are using the unnecessary and bungled war in Libya as a stick to beat the president with. Obama scored an own goal with Libya, and the Republicans are right to collect easy points with it. But, with the exception of Romney and perhaps Pawlenty, they are getting carried away and seem to believe that the electorate is in the mood for full-scale retrenchment and withdrawal from the world at large. Worse, they may actually believe that would be good policy. That may play well with the primary electorate, but it will hurt in the general election. More importantly, it would be terrible policy.

TED ALJIBE/AFP/Getty Images

 

PYROMETMAN

3:17 PM ET

June 22, 2011

"Isolationist Ron Paul"...tired old rhetoric of the neo-cons

As I and countless other have said over the past four years, Ron Paul is a non-interventionist. Nobody takes the "isolationist" label seriously anymore because most people are informed about Ron Paul.

Please wake up and realize the Ron Paul is the most serious candidate in the GOP presidential race. It's not only about foreign policy, it is the whole package. To rule out voting for Ron Paul based only on this issue would show the rest of the world how uninformed American voters are. Let's show the rest of the world that we are intelligent and can make excellent decisions.

 

MARTY MARTEL

7:27 PM ET

June 22, 2011

Taliban rule is coming

Previous US ambassador Anne Patterson to Pakistan, wrote in a secret review in 2009 that ‘Pakistan's Army and ISI are covertly SPONSORING four militant groups - Haqqani‘s HQN, Mullah Omar‘s QST, Al Qaeda and LeT - and will not abandon them for any amount of US money‘, as diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show.

Ambassador Patterson had NO reason to mislead her own State Department and U. S. government.

There is NO reason why Pakistani Army and ISI will stop supporting their proxies fighting war in Afghanistan from their safe shelters in Pakistan at this point when U. S. is ready to leave.

At this stage in the game after ten long years of war, as far as the US is concerned, the war on terror is over; feeble clarifications by the State Department, that the larger war on Al Qaeda shall continue, are inconsequential. Pakistan knows that by skillfully holding out till now, it is close to getting its proxy regime in place in Kabul. If it is able to sell the idea of an Islamabad-friendly Government as being of strategic utility to Washington, there’s no reason why the Americans should object to that. Pakistani and American interests, both short-term and medium-term, converge at this point; a broke America cannot afford to look at long-term interests, not at this moment.

And thereby hangs a tale — of Pakistani and American perfidy. The US has been, and shall remain, mindful of the “paranoia of Pakistan”; Islamabad’s sensitivities, its faux victimhood, will always take precedence over Afghanistan in Washington.

Obama administration is already asking Pakistan to provide access to Afghan Taliban leaders safely ensconced under Pakistani ISI's protection. A facade of peace deal will be reached with Afghan Taliban as dictated by Pakistan and with leaders chosen by Pakistan. US will begin its drawdown and finally exit the theatre of a war it is desperate not to be seen as having lost, not so much to the Taliban and Al Qaeda as to the wily Generals of Rawalpindi who have proved to be smarter than the Americans.

That facade of peace will crumble within few years after the departure of US troops and Pakistan will bring Afghanistan under its suzerainty with reimposition of Taliban rule just as it did in 1996 as Uncle Sam helplessly will look the other way.

 

XSIBERIA

8:03 PM ET

June 22, 2011

Demanding more accountability: if wishes were fishes...

While Mr. Romney may wish to *demand* more accountability from the Afghans, I don't recognize what grounds exist for us to *expect* more. If we cannot expect more, then the logic of his final sentence demands that we stop our losses--losses that are measured in American lives and not just a buck. The link between what those soldiers took an oath to give their lives for, if called upon to do so, and what their lives are actually being traded for in Afganistan is growing increasingly more difficult to appreciate.

There's no doubt in my mind that Bob Gates, Ryan Crocker, and David Petraeus are right and that the war is winnable: assuming that those making the judgement of conditions on the ground are cut more in the image of a Pershing than a McClellan then the US military could defeat this enemy. But to what end? "Only the Afghanis [sic] can win Afghanistan's independence from the Taliban."

 

ZATHRAS

3:16 AM ET

June 23, 2011

Less than peanuts

I note the warnings from one of the people who helped screw up the war in Afghanistan about bad policy ideas from Republican Presidential candidates. These warnings should be given their due weight.

I also think Republican Presidential candidates should be asked to comment about whether there are any other categories of government spending in which $100 billion is "less than peanuts." They don't seem to think so.

 

Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.

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