
There is a strong temptation to take European stability for granted. After an exceedingly shaky start to the 20th Century, Europe got its act together, overcame animosities, and became a steady and supportive ally of the United States.
Perhaps for this reason, when foreign policy cognoscenti run down threats on the global horizon -- or at least issues that are likely to feature prominently between now and the next U.S. presidential election -- there is a temptation to cite China, Israel and Palestine, Afghanistan, Iran, Venezuela, and perhaps pending trade agreements with partners in Latin America and across the Pacific. I have heard discussions in which Europe was omitted entirely.
Beyond Europe's history of stability, this may also have to do with the language used to describe Europe's brewing financial crisis. The articles dwell on yield spreads, credit default swaps, and risks to central bank balance sheets. The issue just begs to be relegated to the back business pages. But it would be misplaced.
The serious economic implications alone should earn the story a front-page spot above the fold (for you kids out there, that's the equivalent of a prominent link with a large font). At least the economic issues have received some careful scrutiny (see here and here). What if you're an old-school, throw-weight and Congress of Vienna foreign policy type? Herewith, four first-order foreign policy implications:
1. Relations between European countries could dramatically worsen. The tensions that union was meant to bury are apparently not as deep as one might have thought. A year ago, when the first Greek bailout was under discussion, some German parliamentarians suggested that the profligate Greeks should just sell off some islands. "We give you cash, you give us Corfu," one paper offered. Greeks responded with recollections of Nazi plunder and atrocities. Meanwhile, countries like Spain, with strikingly high unemployment, are being told to launch austerity programs, under the tutelage of the Germans and the French. Any potential for resentment there?
2. Broken promises and unbearable burdens can spur resurgent nationalism. When Germans gave up their beloved Deutsche Mark, they were assured that the strength of the Euro would be paramount and bailouts would be verboten. Now Europe's leaders have clarified that there would be no bailouts, except in case of emergency (but presumably still ruling out non-emergency bailouts, should that issue ever arise). The more prosperous nations of Europe are racking up significant liabilities through their handling of the crisis, often in opaque ways. This has already led to the rise of parties like the True Finns. It is not hard to imagine less-benign movements who point to the threat of inflation and painful budget cuts and claim that their leaders have betrayed their nation to serve foreign interests. There is some precedent (see Weimar Germany). And how long will comity hold among political parties in the troubled countries at Europe's periphery (Ireland, Portugal, Spain)? As austerity bites and unemployment rises, we can only hope that the policy objections come from politicians channeling the critiques of non-European economists, as opposed to demagogues peddling more pernicious prescriptions.
3. This raises core issues for the G-20. The prestige of the new, premiere forum for handling international issues is at stake with efforts to push global rebalancing. One of the major obstacles to progress in Seoul last fall was Germany's objection to proposals to have objective criteria for when countries' imbalances are excessive. The G-20 was left with a long, tedious process of trying to come up with euphemisms for "excessive current account imbalance." Nor is the G-20 the only institution of global economic governance that is implicated. The IMF is a direct participant in the European bailouts, a fact which is coloring discussions over a new Managing Director.
4. This severely undercuts a more multilateral approach to foreign policy. The Obama administration has tried to distinguish itself from its predecessor by stressing the need to enlist more partners in cooperative endeavors (though, as Josh Rogin has reported, this has not always played out as advertised). The number of major potential partners in global undertakings is relatively limited. If Europe's time, money, and focus are consumed by internal crises, then it will be less willing and able to join the United States in leading multilateral efforts elsewhere in the world.
Decades of European stability have been a wonderful boon. It is hard to see how that stability survives the continent's current economic crisis. If Europe falters, the ramifications will not be limited to the world of finance.
Your leadoff photo is priceless in so many ways. Article wasn't to bad either. The only problem with your premise is that who really knows what is going on behind closed doors. Reporters aren't in on every phone call, email or meeting. And I am not just referring to the political "elites" but, also the money-is-a-commodity "elites". Both are working hard to destroy the world, after almost doing it in the recent past.
Who will blink first in Greek crisis?
We may be seeing a standoff between Germany and the European Central Bank by Jim J. Jubak on Jun 10, 2011
"Why the escalation of rhetoric? And why now? A good part of the reason is the bet by Germany’s leaders that the ECB will chicken out first, as it did just about a year ago -- and a belief on the part of the central bank that it can’t compromise this time without doing real damage to its long-term credibility. In June 2010, Trichet was absolute in his conviction that the bank would never buy the bonds of European governments in the open market, as part of a move to support the debt of Greece, Portugal or Ireland. Four days later, the ECB started to buy government debt in the open market, and has continued to do so as the crisis continued. I think you can understand why the German government thinks it can get the bank to blink again."
Soros: Time working against euro zone solutionb by Reuters (Oslo)
"The chances of positively resolving Europe's serious debt problems are decreasing from day to day as authorities focus on 'buying more time,' not solving problems, billionaire investor George Soros said on Tuesday. 'You have a very serious problem in Europe, the over-indebtedness of some countries: Greece, Portugal and Ireland,' Soros told an economic conference. 'The authorities are not providing a solution but basically buying time. They have always done that, that is the normal thing for authorities to do. In this case, I'm afraid they are making a mistake."
In addition to being "an old-school, throw-weight and Congress of Vienna foreign policy type," I'm an old Cold Warrior, who cut his teeth on (and in) NATO and our Western European allies, facing off against the Soviet motorized rifle hordes, somewhere over yonder past the Fulda Gap.
I _like_ Europe. I like _Europeans_. Not more than or to the exclusion of _Americans_, you understand, but there's a _lot_ of common history and culture shared with our co-civilizationists, plus a lot of personal friendships and other relationships.
On the more Realpolitik side of things, they're also a huge trading partner, not to mention the military-potential side of things. So Europe _matters_ to the U.S., somewhat more than any other landmass of comparable population.
I've quoted you and linked to you here: http://consul-at-arms2.blogspot.com/2011/06/re-foreign-policy-shrapnel-when-europe.html
Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.
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