A recent Washington Post poll
shows that President Obama probably has the political breathing room he would
need to choose from a wider array of options on Afghanistan than the
conventional wisdom believes. While support for the war is eroding,
it has not eroded to the point where domestic political considerations need
trump a careful consideration of conditions on the ground in Afghanistan. Put
another way: if a measured withdrawal would increase prospects for a successful
outcome in Afghanistan than would a rapid retreat from the theater, then there
may be enough political space in American domestic politics to permit such an
approach.
This only sharpens the very difficult choice confronting
Obama. Fred and Kimberly Kagan argue
that conditions on the ground dictate delaying the withdrawal, or at least
opting for a slower, more modest withdrawal than the anti-war faction has
demanded. If the Kagans are right -- and I would note that Stephen Biddle has
offered a similar compelling take
-- then a hasty withdrawal is precisely the wrong thing to do at this point. Some
of Obama's advisors are arguing for an accelerated withdrawal,
while others are arguing for a more measured transition that would focus on the
2014 strategic horizon.
In sum, expert opinion is divided with forceful arguments on
either side. And, not coincidentally, political support is weak. Weak, but
perhaps not completely beyond the reach of a determined mobilization effort --
or so the recent poll might suggest. That such a window still exists is a
remarkable fact, given how little President Obama has done to shore up political
support for the war he called a "necessary" war a few years ago. It
means that President Obama does face political pressure to end the war in
Afghanistan, but that that pressure need not be considered irresistible. A
determined commander-in-chief could still pursue a costlier strategy, provided
that he persuaded the American public that this offered the best chance of
leading to a more successful outcome.
But first, one person needs to be persuaded: himself. The
most important Afghanistan debate today is not the one in Congress or in
opinion polls. It is the one inside President Obama's head and heart. Even
insiders very close to the action do not feel confident about predicting the
outcome of that debate.
From my distant perch in the bleachers, I have even less
confidence in forecasting the Obama debate. I will, however, predict that he
will give us a clearer window into his thinking through some sort of Big Speech
on Afghanistan within the month. I do not see how he can avoid doing so on the
margins of deciding/announcing how many U.S. troops will exit Afghanistan
starting July.
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