I am
tardy on commenting on things my Shadow Gov colleagues have already commented
wisely
upon, but as I was wont to tell my dissertation advisors back in the day,
"better late than never."
Some
thoughts on the security team shuffle:
-
The
Crocker appointment is good news for everyone concerned (except the Bush School
in Texas A&M, which loses a fine Dean).President Obama is to be
congratulated on cajoling Crocker back into the diplomatic fray. However,
unlike my blogpost which is only a few days tardy, this move is probably a
year-and-a-half overdue. Obama did his Afghanistan policy no favors by
leaving Ambassador Eikenberry in his post so long even though it was evident
that Eikenberry (albeit a fine patriot who has served honorably) was not able
to forge the constructive relationship with either the Afghan or the coalition
military partners that the job demanded. For all of the reporting on
Obama's Afghan policy, I have never heard a satisfactory answer to why Obama
stuck with Eikenberry as long as he did.
-
The
Panetta appointment is a reasonable one. It is high time a Democrat held the
post, and Panetta more than checks the partisan Democrat box. His strong suit
is budget, and the fiscal challenges at DoD are daunting. His appointment
confirms what Obama has been signaling for quite some time: the administration
views Defense as a promising place to make deeper cuts. That is worrisome, but
it is reality; elections have consequences. My concerns are twofold. First, as
Tom Mahnken pointed
out, the system is facing some very serious civil-military relations
challenges. It is not clear to me that Panetta has the background or experience
to deftly handle that part of the job; the most successful Democratic SecDef I
can think of, Bill Perry under President Clinton, had extensive DoD experience
before he took the top job. Second, for all his strengths, Panetta is not
a strategist (unlike some of the other names that were floated, such as Richard
Danzig, John Hamre, or Michelle Flournoy -- and unlike his predecessor). This
means that the strategy deficit that FP colleague Tom Ricks earlier noted
just got a wee bit bigger. It probably doesn't help that one of the most able
strategists in the administration just got moved, which brings me to....
-
The
Petraeus appointment leaves me a bit puzzled.Why move your best
strategist away from a line function to an advisory one, and one that is by
tradition supposed to be scrupulously neutral on policy? For that matter,
if you are insistent on moving him from line to staff, why not move him to
Chairman of the JCS, the position he is most qualified for? Of course, I
know the answers to these questions: the CIA has a major and growing operational
role and in that respect Petraeus will likely excel; the White House wants
Petraeus on a tight leash and feels that in the CJCS position he would be to
Obama what Colin Powell was to Bill Clinton, a thorn in the flesh; at CIA,
Petraeus is constrained from calling out the administration if policy errors
lead to disasters in Afghanistan, Iraq, and/or Libya. All in all, this is a
shrewd move that is optimized for President Obama's 2012 electoral strategy.
How good it will be for American national security strategy is still to
be determined.
Speaking
of national security strategy...what about the remarkable Ryan Lizza article that indelibly imprinted the label on the Obama doctrine, "leading from
behind"? I found it revealing, but not in the ways that Lizza
probably intended:
-
The
article is in the well-worn tradition of credulous puff-pieces about President
Obama's national security acumen, but even if the reporter is boosterish, if he
is honest (as Lizza appears to be), he can't help but make implicit critiques.For
instance, Lizza promotes the new paradigm of Obama national security as
"consequentialism," a pragmatism that transcends old realist vs.
idealist labels. The problem is, however, that even on their own terms
the consequences of Obama's national security efforts have been dodgy -- a fact
that Lizza's article notes in passing. The Administration came in
promising to rebalance U.S. priorities with a stronger focus in Asia and a lighter
focus in the Middle East. Yet America's position in Asia is no better than what
was inherited from Bush in 2008 and, by intervening in the Libyan civil war,
the administration has committed the United States even more intensively and
militarily in the broader Middle East.To be sure, the administration is
resolutely marching to the exits in Iraq, but what have been the consequences
of that thus far? For a strategy of consequentialism, the piece is
remarkably light on assessing consequences.
-
To
me the strongest take away from the article is the apparent irrelevance of Vice
President Biden. I have commented on Biden's strange absence
from the foreign policy stage before and since that time he has apparently
given one desultory press interview
focused on foreign policy. Perhaps he has been a more vital player behind
the scenes, but if so that fact escaped Lizza's extensive reporting.
Indeed, junior State Department staffer Jared Cohen comes off as more
consequential than Vice-President Biden, whom Lizza mentions exactly once: as
being on distribution for a presidential memo.
-
Speaking
of that memo, Lizza's treatment of it struck a discordant note to my former
staffer's ears. Lizza describes it thus:
On
August 12, 2010, Obama sent a five-page memorandum called "Political Reform in
the Middle East and North Africa" to Vice-President Joseph Biden, Clinton,
Gates, Donilon, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the other senior
members of his foreign-policy team...the President wrote. He noted ...Obama's analysis showed a desire to balance interests
and ideals. ... Obama wrote. ...Obama instructed his staff ... He told his advisers
to ... He also wrote that..."
Inside
the ellipses was all the specific content of the memo, which presumably was
classified yet handed to Lizza so he could quote it verbatim and at length. I
have no objections to the content, and I understand why the White House leaked
it to Lizza. The memo gives the unmistakable impression that the President was
completely on top of events in the Middle East (ahead of them, actually),
despite the lurching and reactive flow of actual administration activity (not
to mention consequences) of the past four months.
What
intrigues me is what leaps out when you look at the verbs connecting the
ellipses. Lizza is telling us that the president sat down, drafted a five
page terms of reference for a major regional strategy review, and then gave it
to his national security team much the way a professor would hand out a
demanding take home exam to his top graduate students. It could have
happened that way and, if it did, that would be a remarkable and newsworthy
fact worth highlighting. It would show a presidential-level devotion to
staff work not seen since President Carter reviewed the scheduling of the White
House tennis
courts. I do not know any seasoned White House hand who thinks that
is how it happened, but if it did, surely Lizza should explore its significance
more.
Instead,
what happened, I am willing to bet, is that on August 12, Obama signed what in
Clinton's day used to be called a Presidential Review Directive -- a terms
of reference drafted by the NSC staff with input from the interagency and then
turned into a presidential tasker to be sent back to the NSC staff and the
interagency to execute. The NSC staff can on their own authority direct
the interagency to study something, but when it is really important it helps to
have the big boss signature on it to overcome bureaucratic inertia. Certainly
President Obama read the terms of reference, probably it reflected his
strategic guidance, possibly he tweaked it to reflect more precisely that
guidance, but it is a stretch to say he "drafted" it. White House
staffers will make that stretch, but seasoned reporters usually unstretch it
when they translate it for their readers. Lizza passes it along in its
fully stretched form.
This
is more a critique of Lizza than of the White House staffers who tried to spin
him. And, to be fair, Lizza is no worse and probably a bit better than many of
the correspondents reporting on the Obama White House. But in their zeal
to portray sympathetically a president with whom they sympathize, I think the
reporters are doing their hero a disservice. The White House flacks are trying
to make their boss look as good as possible, a perfectly understandable spin
effort. Usually, sympathetic reporters will tone down the spin effort so
what the readers actually see is an apparently balanced but largely positive
account. Instead, Lizza and others seem to pass the spin right along. To
mix in a different analogy: The Obama people put their TV makeup on but Lizza
didn't filter it through the television screen so what you get in natural light
is a garish make-up job.
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