It is not fair to criticize the Obama administration too harshly for its failure to come up with a single, robust policy regarding the spreading street unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. The administration has been playing catch-up and has often been a step or two behind, but I think that is inevitable when one is confronting revolutionary cascades. Moreover, the region is dotted with very different governments, ranging from friendly autocrats who have been liberalizing (albeit too slowly) to thuggish despots who used almost every tool at their disposal to oppress their people and frustrate U.S. interests in the region. The popular movements rising in the region may share some features in common, but the regimes they are threatening are very different. It would be very hard to come up with a one-size-fits-all policy that would endure given these conditions.

So I have some sympathy for the way the Obama administration has handled, for instance, the situation in Bahrain. The regime there has supported key U.S. policies over the years, and securing long-term access to the home port of the 5th Fleet is an important U.S. national interest. The ethnic mix in Bahrain is volatile, and the Sunni rulers have good reason to fear Iranian adventurism -- long a staple in the region. For precisely those reasons, however, the administration is right to use its influence to pressure the regime into avoiding bloodshed and accommodating legitimate political grievances of the protesters. Calibrating the pressure and the message is hard, but the core U.S. interests involved are fairly straightforward.

I have less sympathy for the same equivocation with regard to Libya. The Qaddafi regime is no friend of the United States. While Qaddafi did make a major concession on WMD in 2003 on the heels of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, it is likely that that deal would be honored (or an even better one secured) by any regime installed after its ouster. Moreover, the level of atrocities the regime has inflicted upon the street protesters goes well beyond what the other regional autocrats have done. Full-throated condemnation would seem an easy call for the administration. As former Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz notes in a tough column today, the U.S. message has not been all that full-throated, not yet anyway.

The Obama administration needs to do more, but I would not go as far as some who advocate having U.S. forces impose a no-fly zone. I share their outrage at the way Qaddafi had his Air Force strafe defenseless citizens, but involving the U.S. military in this way would constitute a major escalation and it would be hard to walk back if the situation further unraveled. What if Qaddafi shifted to tanks? Would we then be obligated to have our planes destroy the tanks? And without U.N. authorization, the United States would be entirely on its own. Not even our European allies, who otherwise would join in condemning the Qaddafi regime, would approve of U.S. military action without U.N. authorization.

The United States has acted without U.N. authorization before and rightly so, most famously in the Kosovo war of 1999, although there we were joined by all of our NATO allies. (Academics also debate whether the 16 prior UNSC resolutions on Iraq provided adequate legal cover for the 2003 invasion of Iraq or whether the Bush administration needed a 17th.) But in these cases, the action came after considerable diplomatic efforts at the United Nations and elsewhere. Other avenues of pressure were tried and found wanting, and only then was a resort to extraordinary force taken.

As Wolfowitz and others note, there is much the United States can do and pressure other states into doing short of unilateral military actions. The Obama administration should take those steps, and quickly.

SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images

 

BUBBLE BURSTER

5:41 PM ET

February 22, 2011

Few consequences for no-fly

I do not see the walk-back difficulties in a no fly zone. Just it presence will likely deter Libyan pilots. If not splashing one or two planes certainly will. Doe anyone remember the 1989 attempted military coup in the Philippines? US buzzed he military barracks implying support for the Aquino regime and the military backed down. Even if things did not go well all you need to do its steam the carrier out of the Gulf of Sidra and you are done.

And tanks...like it would be that hard to get an AC-130 circling above and take out one or two..again the demonstration effect is likely all that is needed, and if not, shut down the operation.

 

CJALLOHBUILDER

2:45 PM ET

March 5, 2011

Military action

Military action against Libyan? would not help Libyan people, Wy the World theart leader's interfering in the African Continent? The Americans are helping the rebals to destroying Libya and people of Liyans future. Col. Muhmar Gardfi is good for Africa and Libyan People and around the World. America are spporting reble against to attck Libyan Peresident just for their interest in my opion for oil.

 

JOHNBRAGG

7:02 PM ET

February 22, 2011

I disagree that the US should be more vocal

There is next to nothing to be gained in being the 50th foreign leader to condemn Qaddafi's crackdown. A loud condemnation puts us on the level of Britain, Jordan, Iran, Hamas, Qatar, the EU, the OIC and Botswana (list drawn from the first two pages of Google News "libya condemned." The US is supposed to be worth more than a soundbite, and if we're not, why call attention to it?

If the revolution succeeds, a stirring Obama statement not be remembered, and if it fails, it will only be remembered as an embarrassment to the President and to the US.

Now, if the Administration has a package of measures to accompany a speech, that is a different matter. A no-fly zone could be declared unilaterally, and later rolled into a UN resolution if Qaddafi stays in power. A sanctions regime is another option, but one that would meet significant European and probably Arab resistance.

 

JOHNBRAGG

8:00 PM ET

February 22, 2011

If you can't speak softly and carry a big stick...

If you can't speak softly and carry a big stick...then at least don't speak loudly with no stick.

 

GRANT

10:29 PM ET

February 22, 2011

More to the point; what if we

More to the point; what if we did declare a no-fly zone and it failed? What if American planes were sent to stop Libyan planes from bombing and even with that we still couldn't stop the military from crushing the protests? It's bad enough to be seen as an unwilling to use force, it's a disaster to be seen as impotent.

As if that possibility weren't dangerous enough there's the threat of a lucky shot taking out one of our fighters. Can we imagine how much China and Russia would be prepared to pay to get their hands on that? Total political backing at the U.N and several billion dollars in aid would be cheap to get their hands on on of our fighters, and that's not even considering the fallout of several U.S airmen held prisoner by Libya.

We've already got a successful revolution in Tunisia (probably) and what might turn out to be a successful one in Egypt (perhaps). Let's shorten our ambitions and not go looking to overthrow every Middle Eastern dictator in one swoop.

 

JOHNBRAGG

10:47 PM ET

February 22, 2011

Even if the revolution is crushed...

...a no fly zone would officially mark the Qaddafi regime as a pariah.

If Iraq couldn't down a plane from 1991-2003, I doubt that a very divided Libyan air force or air defenses would do so either. (I could be wrong about the no fly zone, but I couldn't find a report of a lost US plane on a quick google search.)

 

GRANT

1:35 PM ET

February 23, 2011

American actions don't make a

American actions don't make a state a pariah, that state's own actions make it a pariah*. A no-fly zone wouldn't make the Qaddafi regime less popular and might actually serve to push him closer to Iran if he survives this.
Incidentally there was in fact an F-117 that was shot over Serbia in 1999. Although the specific details of that incident aren't likely to be repeated it still remains a dangerous possibility.
Please don't get me wrong. I despise Qaddafi and would gladly see the Libyan people put his head on a spike. It's just that I feel it's too dangerous to commit the U.S to military action in this instance.

*Please let's not see any remarks about the U.S being a pariah after 2003. That has been said so many times it's practically a dead horse.

 

ZATHRAS

6:19 PM ET

February 23, 2011

The Obama administration's

The Obama administration's first responsibility is to ensure the safety of American nationals in Libya, where we must assume they are in greater jeopardy than in Bahrain or Egypt. It can worry about getting on the right side of history after this is done.

I have no doubt that administration officials will accord Paul Wolfowitz's recommendations their due weight.

 

JAYDEE001

6:32 PM ET

March 4, 2011

Please - you site Wolfowitz?

Please - you site Wolfowitz? one of the key architects of our disasterous invasion and occupation of Iraq? Let him just dry up and blow away!

 

Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.

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