Sunday, January 30, 2011 - 8:12 PM
Less than a week after a State of the Union address that relegated foreign policy to an almost parenthetical concern, the turmoil in Egypt serves reminder yet again how global events can surprise and demand a presidency's attention nonetheless.
I am sympathetic to the Obama administration's challenges in staying abreast of developments this past week, and calibrating their public and private diplomacy effectively. The balance has been difficult, between hedging that Mubarak might hang on to power while supporting the demands of the protestors for freedom and reform, all the while trying to minimize violence, and prevent outright chaos and state collapse.
Where I am not sympathetic to the administration is on two counts: their failure to anticipate this and prepare contingency plans, and their neglect of human rights, democracy, and economic reform in Egypt for the previous two years. These failures should be front and center in any post-mortem policy review. The Mubarak regime's brittleness and Egypt's stagnation have long been apparent to many observers. As just one example among many prognostications, the bipartisan Working Group on Egypt co-chaired by Michelle Dunne and Bob Kagan has for the past year been sounding alarms and urging a revision of U.S. policy.
Even a non-Egypt specialist like me has raised multiple concerns about the regime's stability and encouraged the United States to support more vigorously the democratic reformers. For example in March 2009 I warned "on a recent visit, I did not meet a single Egyptian who had any positive words for Mubarak. My queries elicited either frustrated complaints or the furtive silence that comes from decades of living in a tightly-controlled society... Egypt embodies all the maladies of the non-Gulf Arab world: widespread unemployment and even more underemployment, few channels for popular expression, and a resilient and growing Islamist movement ... serious destabilization in Egypt is a real possibility. Which should caution the Obama team against relying too heavily on this traditional U.S. ally and regional leader for any important policy." (See also here, and here.)
Yet as Tom Malinowski laments in this insightful article, the State Department's default posture on Egypt and similar regimes has instead been a succession of short-term calculations on autocratic stability that may pay off day-to-day -- but miss horribly when major paradigm shifts take place. If anything, the Obama Administration's policy towards Egypt has consisted of a double-down bet on the Mubarak regime's stability and longevity, and a painfully shortsighted eschewal of any meaningful support for democracy and human rights.
Political reform is not the only issue; the Egyptian protests are against economic stagnation as much as political repression, as Egypt's burgeoning population has faced a dismal job market and little prospect for improving their station in life. Here also is another missed opportunity - very little of the billions in U.S. development assistance sent to Egypt in the past decades has supported genuine economic reform, entrepreneurship, and private sector job-creation. Yet lest America's billions in aid to Egypt be dismissed entirely, one potential fruit today may be found in its largest recipient: the Egyptian military. At least as of this writing -- and hopefully going forward -- the Egyptian military has played a pivotal role in preserving order and providing moral support for the reformers. In doing so it has honored one of the most fundamental tenets of civilian-military relations -- it has protected, not attacked, the citizens that it serves.
Meanwhile, as events in Egypt play out by the hour, various commentators are casting about for historical analogies. One being invoked, mistakenly I believe, is the 1979 Iranian revolution. Yet as Robert Kaplan points out, there is no Egyptian Ayatollah Khomeini preparing to return from exile and lead an Islamist takeover, nor does the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt receive majority support. Other analogies are possible, but limited. Perhaps 1986, and "People Power" in the Philippines when the Reagan administration at last withdrew support from the Marcos dictatorship and got behind Cory Aquino? South Korea in 1987? Or 1989 -- and if so, which 1989? Tiananmen Square in China, or the mass movements in Europe that led to the peaceful fall of the Iron Curtain? Or Indonesia in 1998, when Suharto fell, replaced initially by a fellow general but soon enough by democracy (while the Islamists remained a minority)? Or the most recent mass protests in the Arab world, Lebanon's stillborn "Cedar Revolution"? None of the analogies fit exactly, because history does not repeat itself exactly. However Egypt in 2011 plays out, it will soon become an analogy of its own.
Finally, as my former NSC colleague Elliott Abrams points out, Egypt vindicates President George W. Bush's strategic insight in his 2003 speech to the National Endowment for Democracy:
Sixty years of Western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe -- because in the long run, stability cannot be purchased at the expense of liberty. ... As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment and violence ready for export."
The window is diminishing, but not yet closed, for President Obama to seize the initiative and make emphatically clear to the people of Egypt -- and to whatever leaders succeed Mubarak -- that the United States supports their desire for liberty, prosperity, and a better future. Doing so now offers the best hope for a meaningful U.S.-Egypt partnership in the future.
Thank you for the links, Dr. Inboden. Please consider checking them next time, to ensure that they work as intended, before posting (yes, I managed to find the intended URLs buried inside the hyperlinks you included).
Alas, you sully your otherwise reasonable post, however, with your reference to Mr. Abrams. After lauding Bush, Abrams says (in the piece you link to): “and that the Obama administration's abandonment of this mind-set [focus on democracy] is nothing short of a tragedy.”
This is absurd. What has Obama abandoned, really Dr. Inboden, other than one of Bush’s noted democratization strategies: the ten-year trillion-dollar US invasion?
Bush’s bona fides as a supporter of the values he claimed in the 2003 speech is of course suspect, the timing coming as it did on the heels of the Iraq invasion, amid the waning days of the WMD hunt, and after Sistani forced the US to capitulate on a constitutional referendum and early partial power transfer. Moreover, the specific point that Bush makes in the quote is, I believe, fundamentally dishonest. Bush would like listeners to take away the notion that our lack of focus on democracy in Iraq eventually led to a threat to US security. In essence, that al-Qaeda threats – including 9/11 – justified our belated attention to democracy in Iraq. This is a point that Bush tried to spread many times and in many ways during this period, of course, and it is seriously misleading.
All in all, Obama’s 2009 Cairo speech matches up just fine with Bush’s 2003 speech on this count. If we’re giving credit for noble aspirations in speeches, there is no good reason for such a one-sided take on it.
In any case, Mr. Abrams is of course a pretty poor candidate for the democracy-promotion role that you bestow on him via your citation. Consider, for example, his alleged involvement in the Venezuelan coup (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/apr/21/usa.venezuela). Such gratuitous nods to the architects of the Iraq invasion ultimately serve to detract from your posts, Dr. Inboden, rather than enhance them.
Dr. Inboden,
Here is a working link to Abrams' article http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/28/AR2011012803144.html
This article must be Elliot Abrams' idea of a joke. The US gave billions of $ in aid to these corrupt/totalitarian governments and Bush had the audacity to call for freedom. Orwellian to the max. Abrams calls Mubarak a crony, yeah, he was our crony.
Also, Republicans have a tendency to take credit for things they have nothing to do with. For example, Reagan's "tear down this Wall" speech happened more than two years before the Wall actually came down. In 2003, Bush calls for freedom in the Middle East and 7 years later the people rise up. It's like a rooster saying becasue I crow, the sun comes up.
Abrams can stop sucking up to his former boss. I've had some pretty rotten bosses in the past, but none that were responsible for the death of thousands of US troops and an untold number of Iraqi and Afghan civilians. How can he continue to support Bush? Abrams also gives a shout out to another criminal-in-chief boss in Reagan (violating the constitution, anyone?) One thing you can say for Republicans is that they have blind allegiance to authority and a great selective memory.
Also, Abrams' article is another example of irrational escalation of commitment and a sort of hindsight bias on the part of Abrams.
I am interested to read this story which, taken at face value, implies that foreign policy began on 12:00 PM on January 20th, 2009. What did the Bush administration do about this situation? What kind of contingency plans did they have in place? If Egypt has been tottering for as long as the author implies, they should have had such things, right?
From a disinterested observer I would be happy to ignore this, but for someone who very recently worked in this exact field, I would like to know what they did about the problem they now say they saw coming.
I, too, wonder at the propriety of citing as a source of foreign policy wisdom Elliott Abrams, who has let his country down so many times during the course of his long career.
Once again I have to note the evident inability of posters on this blog to move past the temptation to cast discussions of policy matters in the domestic political context. They are personally loyal to former President Bush, and understand as well that at this point the Republican Party doesn't contain a strong base of support for conducting foreign and national security affairs differently than Bush did. So sentiment and personal self-interest align to discourage the posters here from failing to demonstrate their fealty to the last Republican President on a regular basis.
Even so, denouncing the Obama administration's failure to make good on the Bush administration's big, empty talk about Egyptian democracy as a national strategy is, well, a little obvious. President Obama, it is true, faces a different situation in the region than did Bush: the American position is much weaker, thanks in no small measure to Bush having been President for eight years. As I have observed elsewhere, the Obama administration has also displayed limited flexibility in responding to events, particularly those involving domestic unrest in countries with unpopular governments friendly to the United States. Obama still has to manage American interests in the region, not the future of Egypt itself. To this point his administration has done so responsibly.
I do agree that a major development like the unrest in Egypt might have been foreseen and prepared for, though former officials of an administration that got itself blindsided by two insurgencies in southwest Asian countries occupied by American forces are not the people who should be making this criticism. And, in perfect fairness to Obama, there seem to be an awful lot of Egyptians who are as surprised at the events unfolding in their country over the last week as anyone.
Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.
Read More
(4)
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE