Wednesday, December 1, 2010 - 1:50 PM

To further Peter's thoughts in his recent post, I agree that the Obama administration is right to reject China's call for more talks with North Korea, and to refuse any further negotiations with the DPRK until Kim Jong Il's regime changes its behavior. Yet one can't escape the irony that the Obama administration is following the same policy of refusing to negotiate that brought much self-righteous criticism from many commentators against former President George W. Bush. And as a presidential candidate, Barack Obama made the centerpiece of his foreign policy a pledge to do just the opposite, specifically offering to talk without preconditions to hostile regimes.
Let me be clear -- I support the White House on this aspect of their North Korea policy. But I also think this might be a good occasion for reflection by commentators on all sides, myself included. It seems that the same voices that so indignantly condemned the Bush administration for its occasional refusal to engage in unconditional negotiations with unsavory regimes (such as Iran) now fall silent when the Obama administration does the same thing. Perhaps this is another example of what Ross Douthat perceptively described earlier this week as the "partisan mind" at work.
It is also a reminder to partisans and observers on all sides to resist caricaturing each other's positions. I hope this latest impasse with North Korea at least helps elevate the policy debate beyond the hackneyed and simplistic "negotiate or not" rut. As any serious policymaker knows, in practice negotiations are one tool in the policy arsenal. They are not a neutral tool, as the act of negotiating inherently incurs potential risks (such as the other side using it to play a delay and dissemble game while still pursuing a nuclear program) along with potential rewards. And it is a fact that negotiating, especially if public, does confer some sense of legitimacy and political capital to the other side. Think of the debates in the 1980s over whether the odious apartheid regime in South Africa should be "isolated" or "engaged," and many critics rightfully pointed out that engagement would give the government a degree of legitimacy that it craved but did not deserve.
A realistic approach to negotiating must include leverage. For the United States, the most effective entry point for negotiating with an adversarial regime begins with assessing what kind of leverage we can bring to the negotiating table, and what kind of negotiating posture it would give us. Such a leveraged posture could include inducements we possess that the other side desires, or coercive instruments that are either in place and the other side wants lifted, or that haven't been triggered yet and the other side wants to avoid. If a careful "leverage assessment" reveals a weak hand, then it is usually best not to enter into unconditional negotiations, especially because in those cases the best type of leverage might actually be the prospect of negotiations, desired by the other side.
In the case of North Korea, the lead officials in the Obama administration realize that they have little leverage, in part as a result of the concessions made in the last two years of the Bush administration (such as removal of the DPRK from the state sponsor of terror list, and lifting of the Banco Delta Asia sanction along with returning Kim Jong Il's $25 million of ill-gotten gains) that failed to secure a meaningful improvement in North Korea's behavior. Refusing to negotiate from the current posture is a good starting point and helps turn North Korea's (possible) desire for talks into a source of some small leverage. To gain more leverage, reimposing the financial market sanctions on the private accounts of the regime's leaders would help, as would revisiting the state sponsor of terrorism list. Equally important will be exploring ways to change China's cost/benefit calculation for its support of the DPRK. Perhaps after these kinds of steps are taken, it will be time to talk again.
FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images
The point of the Obama administration's position has to wait for the penultimate sentence here. It is about refusing to enter talks called for by China without any assurance that China intends the talks to lead to anything constructive.
I don't know if Inboden gave any real thought to this idea, or whether he just threw in a stray sentence about China to fill out a list of things the administration should be after. The latter seems more likely, frankly, given that the post begins with the usual lament that all the people who were so mean to George W. Bush for leaving yet another situation worse than he found it are not yelling about President Obama doing something that looks superficially similar to what his predecessor did almost ten years ago.
What Obama's predecessor actually did almost ten years ago on North Korea was let his Vice President lead him around by the nose, thankfully not something that resembles anything going on in Washington today. In any event, North Korea is going to be North Korea; it isn't going to "change its behavior" on its own regardless of America's nominal negotiating posture. Everything we know appears to indicate that its aberrant course of conduct is being driven by the North Korean version of domestic politics. The only country with any direct influence on those is China, and neither the United States nor its allies in the region see how it serves their interests to pretend that China is serious now about something it has not dealt with seriously in the past.
Asking China to Act Like the U.S. by HELENE COOPER, Nov 27, 2010
"A fundamental tenet of foreign policy says that nations will seldom voluntarily act against what they have determined, for whatever reason, to be their own national interest. Somebody needs to tell that to the United States when it comes to China, many foreign policy experts say. A key part of America’s relationship with China now turns on a question that is, at its heart, an impossible conundrum: How to get Beijing to make moves that its leaders don’t think are good for their country? From economics to climate change to currency to Iran and finally culminating with North Korea last week, America has sought to push, prod and cajole China, to little or no avail. That concern has left a succession of American governments attempting the impossible."
U.S. allies, plot North Korea strategy - without China
By Arshad Mohammed , Reuters, 12/5/2010
The Japanese, South Korean and U.S. foreign ministers meet on Monday to plot strategy toward an increasingly provocative North Korea in the face of China's reluctance to try to rein in its sometime ally. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton meets separately in the U.S. capital with South Korea's Kim Sung-hwan and Japan's Seiji Maehara before the three gather to discuss the North's nuclear advances and its shelling of a South Korean island. Seoul has sharply increased its rhetoric over the past week, prompted by growing protests and public opinion polls critical of the conservative government's perceived weak response to last month's deadly shelling of Yeonpyeong island. There is no obvious diplomatic path forward on how to ease tensions, particularly given China's apparent unwillingness to condemn the North at the U.N. Security Council or otherwise exercise such leverage as it has over Pyongyang.
Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.
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