North
Korea's revelations of a long-suspected
illicit uranium enrichment program, construction of a new, larger nuclear
reactor, and its unprovoked artillery attack on South Korean territory raise
the stakes in an already dangerous situation. It is time to think strategically, not tactically, and for resolve, not
appeasement.
North
Korea's benighted regime is corrupt, brutal,
incompetent, and violently aggressive. The scale of its crimes against the Korean people is evident even from
outer space at night as a black armband of poverty across the Peninsula,
surrounded by the bright lights of prosperity burning from China and South Korea. Very likely over a million people in the
North starved to death during the 1990s due to Pyongyang's twin policies of juche (self-reliance),
and meeting military needs first. Political prisoners are held in camps scattered throughout the North,
but in a very real sense, nearly all of its citizens are prisoners of the
state.
The North Korean regime could not exist without support from
China. Beijing
provides trade, aid, and political sustenance sufficient to keep the failed
state from complete collapse. It does so
to avoid a flood of refugees or political instability which might spread to China. Moreover, this tragic situation is made dangerous
by North Korea's
behavior overseas.
In the 1980s, North Korean agents committed acts of
terrorism, including bombing an airliner and attempting to assassinate the
South Korean president during a state visit to Burma. North Korea kidnapped dozens of
Japanese and South Korean citizens to exploit them for intelligence
purposes. Pyongyang is the leading
exporter of ballistic missiles to dangerous regimes, most likely was the source
of some of the material shipped to Libya's nuclear program, and helped Syria to
build a covert plutonium production reactor, which could have been used to
produce nuclear weapons, had it not been destroyed by Israeli jets in September
2007. Twice recently, North Korea has
attacked the South with military force.
These actions are inconsistent with international peace and security.
The newly unveiled uranium enrichment program is a
particularly dangerous development. It
gives the North another path to make fissile material for nuclear weapons-and
might provide a further revenue source from illicit sales. It is very unlikely that this program grew to
its present size-reportedly 2,000 centrifuges in a "stunning" modern facility-in
the months between the departure of U.S. and international inspectors
in the spring of 2009 and now. A more
plausible explanation is that the newly-revealed facility is the fruit of a
long-suspected program, undertaken in violation of numerous international
agreements.
An early temptation will be to view the situation
tactically-to ask what can be done to calm the crisis? This is a sensible impulse; preventing war is
a worthy goal. Strategic considerations,
however, are also important. Consistent
with its paramount interests in avoiding political instability and refugee
flows, China
will be eager to calm the situation. The
United States and its allies
must take the case to Beijing that long term
stability on the Peninsula can only be
guaranteed by truly ending the Korean War.
Eventually -- like all dynasties -- Kim's will end. The choice for Beijing
is thus whether it will continue heroic measures to maintain a terminal
patient, thereby extending the North Korean people's misery and threats to
international security, or alternatively plan for and work toward a peaceful,
stable, democratic, and reunited Korean
Peninsula. Beijing's
apparent acquiescence to dynastic succession in North Korea was a mistake. In light of recent developments, China has the opportunity to correct that
mistake, and Washington has stronger arguments
to persuade Beijing
to do so.
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