Posted By Daniel Blumenthal Share

Over the past decade, Washington's Taiwan policy has created unnecessary dilemmas for Taiwan's political leadership. On the one hand, if a president of Taiwan is considered too provocative toward China, Washington, rightfully irritated over undue tensions, will freeze relations with the democratic island. On the other hand, if a president of Taiwan reconciles with China, Washington's impulse is to neglect relations, confident that the cross Strait "problem" is resolving itself. It's a small wonder why many Taiwanese believe that Washington is unreliable.

President Chen Shui-bian faced the former from Washington. While no one in Taiwan doubted that he would protect Taiwan's de facto independent status and its hard won democracy, or fight for its international dignity, he lost the confidence of Washington and then his own people when relations with both China and the United States soured.

President Ma Ying-jeou faces the latter. He has made major strides in easing tensions with China. And while relations with Washington are not characterized by tension, they are almost non-existent. Ma has negotiated a free trade agreement with China, from which Washington can benefit by leveraging its close relationship with Taipei to enter the China market duty-free. But no U.S.-Taiwan free trade agreement is pending. And, while China's military pressure is unrelenting (not a single of the 1,000-plus missiles pointed at Taiwan has been dismantled,) Washington is taking its commitment to helping Taiwan defend itself rather lightly. Taiwan badly needs more F-16 fighter aircraft to recapitalize its aging air fleet. None seem forthcoming. This is all the more troublesome given China's stepped up aggression against its other neighbors such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, and India. It is just a matter of time before Beijing loses patience with Taipei's refusal to discuss its political future. Taipei will need to show it cannot be pushed around.

In addition, the people of Taiwan profoundly desire a greater international personality, but China heads off Taiwan's participation in just about any international organization. Washington's diplomacy, which can help Taiwan enter organizations where statehood is not a pre-requisite, has been languid.

The main tasks of a Taiwan president in a democratic system are threefold: maintain decent relations with China, warm relations with the United States, and increase Taiwan's international status. A president who cannot do all three is doomed to failure in Taiwan's fickle political system.

Washington has an interest in encouraging all three pillars of any Taiwan's president's success. It wants relations between Taiwan and China to be stable. At the same time, the United States wants Taiwan to hold on to its democratic status, even its ill-defined international status, until the day when China can be more reasonable in its approach to Taiwan's future. Once China abandons its stubborn -- and for Taiwan, unacceptable -- stance that the only solution to the conflict is the absorption of Taiwan by China, many creative diplomatic solutions will open up.

It is thus incumbent upon the United States to reward Taiwan's China diplomacy with bilateral initiatives that increase Taipei's international status and help it deter China's military coercion. Washington can start by highlighting to American businesses the opportunities Taiwan has created through its economic cooperation framework agreement with China. While it negotiates a free trade agreement with Taiwan, Washington should also send the U.S. secretary of commerce to the island with a delegation of leading businessmen to scout out new investment opportunities. Not only can the United States benefit from Taiwan's closer links with the mainland, but more American investment on the island will also increase Taiwan's international prestige.

Regarding military cooperation, Washington should sell both the additional F-16s to Taiwan as well as submarines promised, but never delivered, by President Bush in 2001. The F-16s will not solve every military problem but will signal strong support from Washington and send the message to Beijing that its arms build-up will not go unanswered. As a stealthy, survival platform, submarines are an effective answer to Beijing's naval build-up (that is why every U.S. friend in the region is buying submarines in response to China's underwater threat). Finally, Washington should energetically push for Taiwan's participation in functional United Nations organizations.

A reinvigorated Taiwan policy will encourage Taiwan presidents to keep relations with China on an even keel while holding out hope that Taiwan will not live in international isolation. The purpose of U.S. policy should be to discourage unneeded cross Strait tension while binding the democratic island ever closer to Washington.

PATRICK LIN/AFP/Getty Images

 

DALBANESE

5:17 PM ET

October 12, 2010

astute observations

What a wonderful interpretation of the situation here.

Regardless of full accuracy, I would like to ask @ARVAY two questions.

First, what is your definition of "China"? I assume you are referring to the PRC, which has never controlled any portion of Taiwan.

Second, assuming that you are referring to the PRC, would you be willing to produce one shred of evidence that "we" (the US?) have agreed that Taiwan is a province of the PRC? Willing or not, you are not able. There is no such legitimate evidence.

Your argument might be stronger if you had any clue to the true context on Taiwan, let alone did your homework before writing.

 

JAYDEE001

3:16 PM ET

October 19, 2010

Taiwan is part of China - according to our State Department

U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS
On January 1, 1979, the United States changed its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. In the U.S.-P.R.C. Joint Communiqué that announced the change, the United States recognized the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China and acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China. The Joint Communiqué also stated that within this context the people of the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people on Taiwan.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35855.htm

 

PUBLICUS

10:28 PM ET

October 31, 2010

JAYDEE001 - get real

Get past the diplomatic blue smoke and mirrors double talk to the realities of the situation and the factual record of US-Taiwan relations since the US officially changed diplomatic recognition of China to Beiiing. The evidence since the 1979 change is clear and unmistakably convincing.

The US (and other countries such as France while Nikolas Sarkozy worked in the Defense Ministry) has sold many many billions of dollars and tons of defensive arms and technology to Taiwan.

And in 1996, because the PRC/CCP fired missiles into the Taiwan Strait round the clock for a week, in the immediate leadup to the election which produced the separatist Chen Shui Bian as president, the US sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to the Strait to force Beijing to quit, to back off and to back down. This harsh loss of face still severely stings Beijing. However, it was the decision of the klutzes and dopes in Beijing to begin and to carry on the obviously unsustainable and unacceptable to the United States 24 hour a day for a week firing of missiles within a kilometer of the shores of Taiwan immediately preceding a democratic election on the sovereign island country - for a week only until the US decisively responded.

The US and allied, friendly countries sell billions of dollars and tons of defensive arms to Taiwan exactly and precisely because it is not a province of Beijing/the PRC/CCP. Indeed, the US and other democratic governments do not sell arms to any actual province of the sovereign PRC. The US government does not sell arms to, for instance, the mainland province of GuangShi or to any other actual province of the sovereign PRC. Nor does the US sell arms to the undisputed PRC island province of Hainan (south of Hong Kong).

The US and other democratic governments sell arms to Taiwan because Taiwan in fact is not a province of the PRC. Washington, other Western capitals and Beijing know that Taiwan is not a province of the PRC. We and Beijing recognize the fact and reality that Taiwan is a sovereign independent country, a sovereign democracy with its own elected sovereign government, its own sovereign currency, its own military etc etc.

We also know that the CCP Politboro and Central Military Commission decades ago set up by a relentless indoctrination the entirety (almost) of the sheeple population of the PRC/CCP to receive and militantly accept in the absolute that Taiwan is a part of the PRC. This always was, has been and continues to be the long term planned and designed PRC/CCP eventual trigger to the inevitable war Beijing sees as necessary against the United States, the war that to Beijing will be the "midwife" to the "Chinese century." (PRC Gen Chi Haotian on June 6, 2009: "War is not far from us and is the midwife of the Chinese century.")

Virtually everyone East or West sees Taiwan as the trigger to a war scenario between the PRC and the United States. That long term plan originated long ago in the closed and confidential CCP conference rooms of Beijing. It hasn't ever been any secret that Taiwan is the Beijing intended and planned flashpoint of the war Beijing sees as necessary between the PRC and the US so as to gain world dominance and hegemony.

 

Z

9:58 PM ET

October 12, 2010

A Question of Technology?

Unless I'm mistaken, the US no longer makes F-16 A/B Block 20s which were given to Taiwan. So if they were to get new F-16s (I assume the C/D types sold to Singapore and Thailand), how much of a (deeper, ground-attack) technical improvement is that giving them? Is that unnecessarily provocative? It could mean a shift from a defensive capability to a first-strike option.

Between 150 old F-16s and 60 Mirage 2000s, even if only a third of them are out of the shop at any given time, isn't that enough *defense*?

Otherwise, it's worth not getting too caught up in the political theatre between Beijing and Taipei when there's so much business getting done.

 

JJH722

7:33 PM ET

October 18, 2010

you're right, our treatment of taiwan is disgraceful

the way we treat taiwan is an abomination. we kowtow to chinese irredentism without batting an eye. the only cold war relic, arvay, is that we persist in this abject groveling. we basically gave Mao taiwan in return for batting down the soviets. the cold war is over. we should be supporting a democracy (it didnt exist at the height of the cold war) that only wants self-determination. China has no respect for self-determination: it is an autocratic empire. how people fawn over israel (itself, arguably, an autocratic empire) as a democracy and dismiss taiwan as a chinese province i will never understand. the arabs are never going to be a threat unless we stubbornly refuse to develop alternative energies and hand them half of the world's wealth. the chinese are an immediate threat. of course, the lack of respect for self-determination (i.e., for the taiwanese and the palestinians) is a cuts across both issues.

 

Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.

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