Friday, September 24, 2010 - 10:53 AM

The latest round of tension between Japan and China reveals the underlying instability in East Asia. The Chinese are in high dudgeon over Japan's arrest of a Chinese fishing captain, whom Japanese officials claim rammed Japanese vessels in disputed waters in the East China Sea. They have apparently shut off exports of rare earth materials (though China denies it) to Japan and threatened greater sanctions unless Japan complies with its demands to release the captain (the Japanese did).
The incident reveals that Beijing is willing to use its increased economic strength as a tool of coercion, no matter the consequences, for its own standing in international markets. But that is not all it reveals. Indeed, this is one in a series of arguments and incidents between China and Japan over the last decade related to sovereignty, territory, rights to natural resources, and China's expanding maritime capabilities in and around Japan.
The key factor in Asia's underlying instability, then, may not be the perception of China's rise relative to the United States' decline. Rather it may be China's rise relative to Japan's decline. The Chinese economy has now overtaken Japan's. China spends more on defense than does Japan. And within Japan as well as the rest of the region, there is a perception that Japan cannot shake its stagnation.
Great power conflicts often begin when a once stronger country believes it is losing its relative position to a rival. This is a more accurate description of Japan's attitude toward China than of the U.S. attitude toward China. In addition to this perceived change in power position is the emotional aspect. These two countries harbor great reservoirs of mutual resentment and hatred, which may not drive their disputes but certainly makes them worse.
For Washington, the lesson is that the era of great power politics is far from over in Asia. Its finite diplomatic energy should be spent on the "high politics" among Asia's great powers -- issues of war and peace (or how to avoid the former and maintain the latter), rather than on the "low politics" of climate change and currency disputes. The diplomatic task with respect to Japan, one that should be carried out at senior and sustained levels, is to help shake Tokyo out of stagnation, and to help Japan become a more coherent and powerful strategic actor. Washington's future in Asia depends upon a rich, strategically active Japan.
The diplomatic task with respect to China, one that should also be carried out at senior and sustained levels, is not to paper over the many disagreements and clashing political objectives that characterize China-U.S. relations. The task at hand is to manage the growing Sino-U.S. security competition -- a competition that increasingly appears to be about two very different visions for Asia -- so that rivalry does not lead to conflict.With its economic coercion in blocking the export of a strategic commodity, mixed with its use of gunboat diplomacy, Beijing is looking, as security expert William O'Neil has said, a bit too much like Imperial Japan.
This post has been updated.
First order of business for China right now is to ’Finlandize’ Japan after this spat between the two over the capture of a Chinese captain. So China is trying everything it can to ’demonize’ Japan. And US has adopted a hands-off approach to that spat, admonishing both to settle their dispute amicably. So clearly US does NOT accept Japan’s claim to disputed islands even though US knows that Japan has owned those islands since 1895 and US itself had handed those islands over to Japan in 1972.
Japan can NOT depend on US nuclear umbrella because US, having become weak after Iran/Afghan wars, is in no position to challenge China or go to war with China over Japan‘s claim to some islands.
Poor Japan, the economic giant but military midget has to buckle under Chinese pressure. Having allowed its economy become so dependent on Chinese imports and exports, Japan is increasingly going to ’Finlandize’ and come under China’s domination unless Japan develops its own nuclear weapons arsenal to match that of China or even surpass it since China is so much bigger and mightier than Japan.
Does Japan have the stomach to meet Chinese challenge? The way Japan behaved over this incident doesn’t sound much reassuring.
Beijing bullies and Trident missles
To call the gang of fascist dictators in Beijing bullies is perhaps to be generous, but let's just say that when Beijing says it will cut off its exports to Japan of rare earth minerals that are central to any modern economy, the CPC/PRC is in fact and reality lunging at the throat of Japan dagger in hand. As with Tiananman in 1989, the CPC in Beijing means to be, well, mean - the moment the CPC/PRC have power, they are quick to use it forcefully and decisively. Eagerly. For now, it's economic power. Use it as the first resort. (Wait until the eager beavers on the CPC/PRC Central Military Committe get the power they're building to realize.)
Governments of the world were aghast at Beijing's stab you (Japan) in the throat economics tactic in using the rare earth card, so the CPC/PRC backed off saying instead that it was a 'de facto' rather than an official action, that it's not in effect anyway, never was put in force to begin with. Beijing backtracked because it arrogantly self exposed its designs as an economic power and, consequently, is still chewing dust on this one. It's just another of Beijing's heavy handed klutz blunders as the new economics kid on the global block - carry a big economic stick and use it immediately, recklessly, anywhere, every time.
The United States defense treaty with Japan includes the islands in question, which anyway don't meet the accepted definition of what an island is (an economically self-sustainable entity with a population). These are extinct volcanoes, chunks of uninhabitable rock with no economic use except to have their natural resources extracted. The question is by which nation(s)? (Constructing one precariously situated 3 storey building entirely supported by large transport ships does not meet the definition of an island under the International Law of the Sea and by other accepted UN geophysical standards.)
Indeed, the matter of which nation has sovereignty over this line of volcanic stubble between Japan and Taiwan is not a question. The US-Japan defense treaty at the conclusion of its post war occupation and reconstruction of Japan included these extinct volcanic rocks as a part of Japan, as belonging to Japan and included as part of the US defense umbrella of Japan.
Marty Martel, Mr. Fantasyland of FP, your statement above (Sept 26, 4:47) makes no sense and its logic is absent, to wit I quote you: "Japan can NOT depend on US nuclear umbrella because US, having become weak after Iran/Afghan wars, is in no position to challenge China or go to war with China over Japan‘s claim to some islands." If you Mr. Beijing Comrade Marty said US conventional land forces, then your statement might be sensible and logical and, even better, have a ring of accuracy to it. However, the US Trident missle in large numbers from boomer subs off the coast of the PRC would within an hour transform the mainland into a black smoldering pit. It's not the US nuclear arsenal that is overextended. - US conventional forces are overextended. The US nuclear arsenal is as thorough and as viable as ever, if not more so.
Alternatively, the Trident missle could have a conventional warhead to simply inflict WW II style destruction but on a more massive scale per weapon used then and now. I speak of the several hundred Tridents that could be used against the CPC/PRC in less time than it takes you to extol your wrong praises of the Chinese Communist Party. (Who needs carrier battle groups?)
BTW, do you really think the Politboro in Beijing has ever heard of Finland? The Beijing Politoboro learned the survivability lesson offered by the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Maybe tho the CPC could learn some democracy from Finland, to include the Nobel Peace Prize (awarded by a committee in Helsinki). Unimaginable, the Politboro or its PRC State Council winning the Nobel Peace Prize - or any Nobel Prize. (Japan has several recipients.)
Nobel Peace Laureate Liu Xiaobo
Now that the Boyz in Beijing have found out where Norway is, perhaps they might someday begin to take notice of Finland.
Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.
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