I can think of two countries where an embargo led to a political and social change in those countries. Rhodesia and South Africa ended minority rule in part because of the UN Sanctions. Sanctions and Embargo work very well when many of the G20 players are involved. In the case of Venezuela, a military blockade and embargo would cripple their economy in months and would probably end the administration of Hugo Chavez.

South Africa and Rhodesia were wild, ideological throwbacks wildly out of place. The world situation was very different. During the very end of the Cold War and for about a decade after, you can not overestimate the influence of the US. We had zero competition. Russia was in pieces, China was still backwards, our western allies were already in severe decline in terms of world influence, and the developed and semi-developed nonwestern nations were just getting acclimated to having world influence. We could easily lead an organized attack on those ludricrous remnants of colonialism. Now, Venezuela has extensive ties to both Russia and China. Though strictly an alliance of convenience, their willingness to support Venezuela means that only extreme measures on our part would be enough to jar Venezuela. Also, even if we could put the same amount of pressure on Venezuela as we did on South Africa (which we cant), it probably still wouldnt be enough. With its minority-ruled, vaguely-democratish, police state structure, South Africa had extreme inherent weaknesses to its stability. We must remember that South Africa was a country that didnt even try to get most of its population to like it, it openly disdained them. Thats incredibly rare, the Nazis, Soviets, Maoists, and all the other more sucsessful oppressors used extensive propaganda designed to keep the majority happy. South Africa was such an inevitably doomed country that it is unwise to use it in many parellels.

Sanctions can work if most of the rest of the world participates. If we got all of the G-20 to stop buying Venezuelian oil, that would have an impact. But there is no chance of that happening, and that is not what the article suggested. Just the US boycotting Venezuelian oil is a lot different from sanctions supported by the rest of the world. The US alone cannot impose an effective boycott.

Although the Apartheid regime did have an open ‘democtratish’ system that was rife to be destabilized – I think your point is not quite correct. South Africa is indeed very good example of the effects of sanctions. You talk of how the world was a different place with only the two Cold War adversaries and no real competition. That is not true, South Africa faced sanction for well over 20 years and somehow that government managed to keep it together. Ongoing sanction busting campaigns included South Africa having special relations with Chile, Taiwan and actually many others including Japan, West Germany and even the oil countries including Iraq. SA waqs building BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, etc motor cars during the heights of sanctions. SA also found creative methods of getting around sanctions with products being routed through poor countries like Swaziland, Lesotho and Botswana. To the Western powers sanctions against SA were rolled out to try and keep SA at an arms length while SA fought the Communist forces. A way of keeping SA useful during the Cold War but at the same time not getting entangled and building a strong reliance on SA. However, with the fall of the Berlin Wall “smart sanctions” kicked in and they were the sole reason for driving the economy to its knees. Taking this lesson, sanctions on Venezuela need only become smart. Perhaps allowing Venezuela to sell to China is a smart idea – the Chinese always want a good deal and before you know it – Chavez may find himself making less than market price for his oil. As for Russia – they don’t have enough resources to exploit their own oil why on earth would they commit resources to Venezuela?
Just as a side note South Africa was not a remnant of colonialism.

Yeah, its important when thinking about US power and influence to remember whats been dubbed the China effect. Nowadays, when a country is snubbed by the US (as the author is suggesting the US do to Venezuela), those snubbed countries have the option of turning towards China. China is now the biggest user of energy in the world. This has a strategic impact which helps to strengthen other countries resistance to the the US and also empowers China. It is very important that policy makers take this into consideration when they throw around issues such as sanctions. The world is changing and its important for people in the US to wake up before China has its own entire group of allies that is not interested in improving relations with the US or improving human rights.

While oil in general is a fungible product and can thus be sold around embargoes, Venezuelan oil is NOT fungible. Venezuelan oil is extremely heavy crude that requires specially equipped refineries to utilize - and the United States is the only country in the world with a significant amount of heavy crude refining capacity. This is why Venezuela is receiving 15%-20% less per barrel for their oil than the going rate for light sweet crude. It is also why Venezuela imports gasoline. As 95% of the Venezuelas dollars are now generated by oil sales, Venezuela would be crippled by an embargo from either Venezuela or the US and Chavez knows it - but then he is so out of touch with reality that he probably doesn't care.

The China Effect often leads to the China Impact, as it did last year in Sri Lanka.

Both the US and India withdrew military support of the SL government due to its worsening human rights record in its response against the separatist Tamil Tigers guerilla group. This left the field open to the PRChina whose assistance was quickly offered and immediately accepted by the SL government. PRC military aircraft had a low level but sufficient technology to spot Tamil hideouts and routes, thus enabling government troops to swarm in to kill and eradicate the Tigers along with substantial numbers of the civilian Tamil population as well.

The PRC was more than pleased to use any means necessary to annihilate a separatist group and its supporting population, any separatist group, as a message to those back on the PRC mainland, such as Tibet and the Muslim Turkic speaking far western province of Xinjiang which shares the PRC border with several central Asia "stan" countries.

Now the PRC is constructing a large naval facility for itself in Sri Lanka and building a new port in the president's hometown. The PRC already is constructing large naval facilities in Burma/Myanmar both to hem India and get closer to the strategic Strait of Malacca between western/southern Indochina and Indonesia.

Chavez never was even neutral towards the United States when George W and some Venezuelan generals failed to depose him shortly after he assumed office, thus putting Chavez into a fury against the US. Chavez already is buddy buddy with the PRC which I'm sure would move to sustain him in office in the event of any embargo, seizing any such opportunity to develop a Cuba-USSR style relationship between the two. As there won't foreseeably be another legitimate election in Venezuela, we should expect Chavez and the CPC/PRC to become evermore kindred.

Given the PRC's increasing efforts to get ever closer to the Panama Canal, Colombia's presence between Panama and Venezuela continues to advantage the US and the free world, as does the fact most Central American governments continue to recognize the Republic of China in Taipei as the legitimate government of the Chinese.

Leaving Venezuela alone, while making sure it doesnt start upturning democracies in the region may very well be our best plan of action. However, if you think Chavez's reign can possibly end with a peaceful, democratic transition of power, youre kidding yourself. It will end with some degree of chaos and/or oppression, thats just inevitable with a man like Chavez. The best we can do is make it as small and controlled a burn as possible. Columbia knows this and thats why it is understandably worried.

Here I agree and what scares me the most is that the "socialist/marxist" policies being implemented by Chaves actually weakens his economy. He is going to reach a point where he realises that he is economically so small that Colombia and others will view him as a clown. At that stage, he may go into an all out war only to prove his own machismo. Oh heck he is already viewed as a clown.....

On a dfferent note - I am not Colombian and I don’t take insult to this topic – but there is something I believe I should clarify on behalf of our more forgiving Colombian readers.

The country’s name is spelt “ColOmbia” not “ColUmbia”. There is no “U” in Colombia.

Now I do appreciate that there are many famous “Anglo-type” names that are spelt “ColUmbia” such as the “Space Shuttle ColUmbia” or the capital called “Washington, District of ColUmbia” or “ColUmbia University” and of course the great Canadian province of “British ColUmbia”

We all know that the word “ColUmbia” has its roots in the name of the great “Christopher Columbus” whose real Italian name is actually “Cristoforo Colombo”… notice no “U” in his name.

Now as Shakespeare once said, “A rose under a different name would smell just as sweet” but given that right now Colombia is the absolute greatest country in South America if not the whole of the Americas (for being a shining example of true democracy) I kindly ask that you respectfully spell the name of their great country correctly, that is: “C.O.L.O.M.B.I.A”…. not “Columbia”… but rather colOmbia…. Or even better COLOMBIA !!!

Try it – it is actually quite an amazing feeling to say “Colombia” … it is kind of liberating and the girls will think you have a Latin accent (we all know how girls love Latin accents)

In fact don’t feel afraid of purposely mis-spelling the Anglo version of the word, for example, the Space Shuttle Colombia… or Washington, District of Colombia…. And yes the ultimate Anglo-Iberic contradiction, the province of “British Colombia”…

Not only is it right to spell COLOMBIA correctly but it just sounds so much more cool…. Go on, I know you have been saying it…. Now try it…. COLOMBIA !!!!!

So in order to wake up and smell the coffee, he'll have to bring his own.

The US could even slosh money into the pockets of Venezuelans generals who underperform, or FARC captains who surrender quickly.

Thats good, realistic thinking.

US Latin America policy is indeed open to criticism, however, it is not the debacle you try to present it as being. The countries you name and their leaders, Chavez especially, initiating closer ties to states such as Iran and the People's Republic of China, and a bunch of other dictatorships, is hardly democratic progress in South America.

Tell me when the next free and fair election will be in Venezuela.

You see, he came up with a great formula: Use democratic institutions to undermine democracy itself and maintain the illusion that you do lead a democracy. Please don't trot out the elections canard either. There are tons of documented cases of government employees being coerced into voting for Chavez, tons of cases of Chavez using government funds for electoral advertising (against the law, but hey, he's THE MAN), and many other improprieties that would get him out of office if Venezuela did have a true democracy that respects the separation of powers.

Not only has he harbored the FARC and ELN since he came to power, but there is enough evidence that Hezbollah has an easy time in Venezuela too.

Tareq-Al-Assaimi, our Minister of the Interior used to head the office that controls the issuance of ID cards and Passports in the border region with Colombia. His uncle was the Syrian Baath Party director for relations with Latin America. You do the math. Or, you can go to Margarita Island and see for yourself where they train.

As for your "laugh test" comment, I guess Chavez didn't laugh it off! There is plenty to go on in that evidence to prove without a doubt that what Colombia has maintained for years now is true, Venezuela provides refuge and respite to the FARC and the ELN. If you still doubt this evidence, you are cordially invited to go to Apure State in Venezuela, or Tachira state if you don't like the lowlands, and speak to the population. THey will tell you that not only do the FARC and ELN have camps there, they have also taken over commerce and even regulate the sale of gasoline, regulate traffic and even have a nice protection racket going. The best part is, they do this openly right in the noses of the National Guard whose job is to go after them! They do not, because they have instructions right from the top to be left alone.

Here, read this for starters http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/03/venezuela.colombia