Anyone interested in civil-military relations should read this fascinating excerpt from Jonathan Alter's authorized account of President Obama's first year in office. Because Alter had such extensive access to senior White House sources and relates their views so uncritically, this may be as close as we can get to the "Inside the West Wing" perspective on President Obama's Afghan Strategy Review 2.0 and, of special import, the ITWW perspective on civil-military relations. That perspective makes me a little uneasy.

Alter reports that Team Obama (not surprisingly) was very proud of its review and believed it to be quite literally the model for sound strategic planning. They were (again, not surprisingly) upset by the leaks, but (and here is where I start to get surprised) they felt that the leaks were entirely due to the clever machinations of a media savvy military that threatened to dance rings around the too-sincere and too-trusting White House. Read this delicious quote and realize that the "neophytes" Alter is describing include Rahm Emanuel, David Axelrod, Jim Jones, and Bob Gates:

In fact, the military, practiced in the ways of Washington, now ran PR circles around the neophytes in the Obama White House, leaking something to the Pentagon reporters nearly every day. The motive for all the leaks seemed clear to the White House: to box the president into the policy that McChrystal had recommended, at least another 80,000 troops and an open-ended commitment lasting 10 years or more." 

Looking past the leaks charge and ignoring (as Alter does) the daily anti-military leaking from the White House, the ITWW perspective has a very odd way of describing the military's goal. I am sure that if you asked General McChrystal, he would say that he thought he was identifying the plan with the best chance of achieving the stated objectives of Obama's plan to win what Obama repeatedly (and very recently) called a necessary war -- said stated objectives having been reaffirmed just a few months prior when Obama announced the results of what was then described as a thorough, systematic, top-to-bottom review of Afghanistan policy. According to Alter, Team Obama thought the military was merely trying to "box the president into the policy."

Indeed, Alter reports that the signal achievement of the review, again from the ITWW perspective, is that Obama successfully resisted the military effort to commit the president to his own war and that, on the contrary, Obama had boxed the military into an irrevocable and unconditional exit from Afghanistan. Again it is worth quoting Alter:

Obama was trying to turn the tables on the military, to box them in after they had spent most of the year boxing him in. If, after 18 months, the situation in Afghanistan had stabilized as he expected, then troops could begin to come home. If conditions didn't stabilize enough to begin an orderly withdrawal of U.S. forces (or if they deteriorated further), that would undermine the Pentagon's belief in the effectiveness of more troops. The commanders couldn't say they didn't have enough time to make the escalation work because they had specifically said, under explicit questioning, that they did."

Alter uncritically endorses this view and describes the new strategy as crystal clear on the terms and timing of the exit. However, as Alter surely must have known, the exact opposite is true: there has been considerable confusion and contradictory statements out of the administration on what the exit strategy entails.

In other words, if Alter is right about what the White House considers to be its most important achievement in the Afghan Strategy Review, then the Review was a failure. Moreover, if Alter has faithfully captured Team Obama's approach to Afghanistan, then there is good reason to be concerned about the future. Those of us who supported the president's ultimate decision on Afghanistan did so because we hoped it indicated a commitment from Obama to win the war of necessity he was in. Alter reports the team seemed to be more concerned with checkmating the U.S. military than with checkmating the Taliban.

Let me be clear. Obama was right to be angry about any leaks from the military, particularly any leaks designed to tie his hands. And he was certainly right to dress down (in private) any military caught engaging in those activities. But I wish there were indications that he was also angry about the anti-military leaks from his civilian staff that he dressed down the civilians who did it, including those who leaked to Alter about the dressing down of the military. For that matter, I wish there were indications that Team Obama understands that the real civil-military problems with their Afghan policy are not that the military is over-committed to success but that their civil-military team seems not to have yet achieved unity of effort, let alone unity of command. 

Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images

 

IAN

5:18 PM ET

May 19, 2010

As I've stated several times before

Obama is looking for a way out. Here he has it already started, working himself and the military into untenable goals so that he can justify his pullout before the next election. The fact that Afghanistan will devolve into something no one can accurately predict but will most likely eventually work out to another Taliban-style government (maybe even the Taliban itself again, and definitely under close scrutiny from Pakistan) does not bear whatesoever on Obama's mind (He might lose a couple minutes sleep, though). The off-year elections are coming up, he's going to lose seats, he wants to get ready for 2012 (even if we all die that year anyway...). Leaving in late 2011/early 2012 or so would be the perfect platform to launch/envigorate his re-election campaign. He would also use this to help hide all the promises he made in the last election that fell flat as soon as he took office.

 

IAN

5:20 PM ET

May 19, 2010

Expect the Propaganda Machine

in the White House to kick into high gear this year touting all the stuff Obama tried to pull off but was hamstrung by the military "boxing him in" until it wasn't feasable to complete his "neccessary war".

 

CHIP COLBERT

10:37 PM ET

May 19, 2010

Vital national interest?

Ian,
From your post, I assume you believe we need to remain committed in Afghanistan beyond the timeframe detailed in our latest strategy. In your opinion, what is our national interest -vital or otherwise - at stake in Afghanistan that requires our continued commitment?

 

SURESH SHETH

8:06 PM ET

May 19, 2010

Bush blunders haunt US Afghan mission

US administrations have been silent partners of Pakistani governments in the death of US soldiers in Afghanistan because US administrations have willingly ignored the most fundamental fact about the emergence of Taliban insurgency after US overthrew Taliban government in 2001.

There were three Bush blunders that are largely responsible for the continued failure of US mission and Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan.

First, during the siege of Kunduz in November 2001, the Bush administration allowed Pakistan to spirit away by airlift hundreds, if not thousands, of Taliban operatives cornered by the advancing Northern Alliance in Kunduz. Pakistan relocated those Taliban cadres including Mullah Mohammed Omar in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan from where Mullah Omar’s QST has been planning raids in Afghanistan ever since.

Second, Bush administration did NOT provide sufficient troops to secure Afghanistan against Taliban because so many US troops were tied down in Iraq to destroy Saddam‘s imaginary weapons of mass destruction.

Third, Bush put blind faith in Musharraf’s Pakistan to fight the very terrorist threat that Pakistan itself created. So Musharraf played duplicitous game of running with the hare while hunting with the hounds. While capturing and killing some Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders based on US intelligence, Musharraf continued to shelter, protect and support Mullah Mohammed Omar’s Quetta Shura Taliban in Quetta, provincial capital of Baluchistan and Haqqani network in North Waziristan. Bush naively tolerated such a duplicitous Musharraf game.

Obama administration has continued Bush’s mollycoddling of Pakistan at the expense of Afghanistan and hence will continue to pay the price.

 

JJH722

11:07 PM ET

May 19, 2010

I hope you're enjoying your alternate reality

I was interested to know what insights you might be referring to in Alter's book. After reading this post, I'm not sure that there are any insights at all. What, Obama decided not to allow a single general to dictate a troop increase to unfeasible levels? Sounds pretty reasonable to me. If you want to criticize the Obama administration (and there is plenty to criticize), focus on why they decided to downgrade Karzai from the beginning when there was no viable alternative to take his place. Abdullah Abdullah was a Tajik--how's he going to govern Afghanistan, where the issues of legitimacy for the government concern the Pashtuns? What did they get out of embarrassing Karzai? Embarrassing Karzai only made sense in the context of justifying a withdrawal from Afghanistan. It doesn't make sense in any other scenario: pressuring Karzai by linking a withdrawal to his performance is foolish because he has nowhere else to go (and therefore no reason to respond to such pressure--if he's really just a leech then he'll leave when we do) and it makes our resolve appear weak. Before they made that decision to withdraw (which they never did), they should have held on tight to Karzai no matter how pungent his stench. This was one of the most foolish diplomatic maneuvers we've seen lately (at least Bush succeeded in getting rid of the Iraqi PM, Jaafari, when he wanted to--he didn't throw a hissy fit). The evidence is obvious for all to see: the administration has totally flip-flopped. Inexplicably, Karzai the ballot-box stuffer is now an adequate "strategic partner" even though the currently sitting ambassador to Kabul has branded him a non-patriotic, moneygrubbing leech. If that's not the case, why isn't there a new ambassador? I don't even really see a viable criticism of Obama in this post--considering you're the designated opposition, I expected a little more substance. Believing another 40k troops is the answer to all our problems is absolutely absurd. Have fun in fantasyland.

 

Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.

Read More