The final frenetic 24
hours of campaigning are kicking in before tomorrow's elections here in the
United Kingdom. And there is a tenuous
yet palpable sense that momentum has shifted in favor of David Cameron and the
Conservatives. Whether this late surge
will be enough to overcome a hung parliament and produce a Tory governing
majority remains anyone's guess.
Five factors all broke in the
Conservatives' favor over the past week.
First, the feckless Gordon Brown made his open microphone "bigoted"
voter gaffe -- and in one fell swoop further demoralized his Labour base
while reinforcing the concerns of undecided voters that he is just another
calculating politician whose public pandering belies a private condescension
towards the populace. Second, Cameron
acquitted himself well and by most accounts won the third (and most important)
television debate. Third, because
Brown's "oops, is this mic on?" moment highlighted voter concerns over unchecked
immigration, it also shined an unfavorable spotlight on the Liberal Democrat
platform's support for an immigration
amnesty -- just when Nick Clegg's burst of fame was starting to lose its
luster. (And you know you have an immigration problem when even immigrants
themselves are complaining about excessive immigration). Fourth, already
leading with their chin on immigration, the LibDems took another punch courtesy
of the week's headlines about Greece's economic travails. The LibDem platform's support for Britain
joining the Eurozone, already unpopular, looks even less appealing to voters
reading about a 110 billion
euro bailout of the profligate Greeks. Fifth, the Tories enjoyed almost
a clean sweep in media endorsements, which still carry a lot of weight
here. Besides the expected support of
the Telegraph,
the Sun,
and the Daily
Mail, the Conservatives picked up some pleasant surprises in backing from
the Times,
Financial
Times, Daily
Express, and the Economist.
The Economist is especially
bracing on the dire state of the British economy:
But in this British election the
overwhelming necessity of reforming the public sector stands out. It is not
just that the budget deficit is a terrifying 11.6% of GDP, a figure that makes
tax rises and spending cuts inevitable. Government now accounts for over half
the economy, rising to 70% in Northern Ireland. For Britain to thrive, this
liberty-destroying Leviathan has to be tackled. The Conservatives, for all
their shortcomings, are keenest to do that; and that is the main reason why we
would cast our vote for them.
As my colleague Alan McCormick points out
in today's Wall Street Journal Europe,
the UK's only prospect for a sustainable economic recovery will come from empowering
private sector entrepreneurs, not further expansion of government. And it is here that prospects of a hung
parliament -- and its accompanying gridlock, credit
rating downgrades, weakened pound, and stagnation on economic reform -- may
have chastened voters into staying with the Tories rather than flirting with a protest
vote for the LibDems. Sometimes wishing
"a pox on all their houses" can bring, well, a pox on all houses including
one's own.
Yet even with these five favorable breaks, polls
are still tight and the Conservatives may not run the tables they need in
enough marginal seats to snag a majority.
Thursday night will be a very late night indeed as the UK, and the world,
watches the returns come in.
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