As
we witnessed recently with the questioning of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair by
the Chilcot inquiry, the debate over the war in Iraq is one that raises many
issues and can be expected to continue for some time to come. But one
issue, raised by my fellow FP blogger, Tom Ricks in a recent post, deserves some critical attention
here: his contention that removing Saddam Hussein from power strengthened Iran by
removing an Iraqi "bulwark" against Persian expansionism.
Ricks'
assertion is one that is oft-repeated but fundamentally mistaken. It is
over-charitable to Saddam, who -- having invaded Kuwait, threatened Saudi Arabia,
and harshly repressed Iraqis -- was no protector of his neighbors. And it
is unfair to the current government of Iraq, which is not a client of Tehran's
or passive in the face of Iranian bellicosity.
More
importantly, however, the notion that our approach to regional security should
be based on supporting a regime like Saddam's as a foil to Tehran should be
rejected. We can pursue other more effective and more palatable means of
countering Iran's threats, and indeed are pursuing them, as recent reporting in the Washington
Post and elsewhere
bears witness. In this regard, the Obama administration should hold firm
on two important objectives. First, success in Iraq: one of the most
potent blows to the Iranian regime, currently struggling against its own loss
of legitimacy domestically, would be the emergence of a pluralistic and
prosperous democracy in Shia-majority Iraq. Second, an unwavering policy of
prevention toward Iran: that is, stressing that we remain determined to prevent
Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, rather than resigned to their doing so and
focused instead on future "containment."
In
one respect, however, Ricks is correct -- the Iranian regime's pursuit of
nuclear weapons and support for terrorism pose a threat to the entire region,
and countries of the region would be wise to work cooperatively to counter this
threat. One of the trickiest issues in the way of a sustainable
Israeli-Palestinian peace is security; to date, the perceived zero-sum tradeoff
between Israeli security and Palestinian sovereignty has proven
unmanageable. The convergence in recent decades of threat perceptions in
the region offers the opportunity for mutually beneficial approaches to the
security issue which should not be neglected. Looking forward, it is such
regional cooperation that will form the real "bulwark" against emerging
threats, whether from Iran, terrorist networks, or elsewhere.
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