The Obama administration will
encounter a changing hemisphere in 2010, with seven presidential elections
taking place between Octobers 2009 and 2010. Those elections will likely
bring a new range of agenda items in bilateral relations with the United
States.
The recent wave of
left-of-center governments easily winning elections is ebbing, as electorates are
turning to more market-friendly and less ideological candidates. Just this
weekend, conservative Chilean businessman Sebastián Piñera was elected
president, ending 20 years of center-left rule. In Brazil, before next
October's election, center-right São Paulo Governor José Serra leads President
Lula's candidate in the polls by 20 percentage points. One would think
that U.S. policymakers would be quietly cheering such a trend, as it would
seemingly lessen the potential for discord in the region fomented by the likes
of Hugo Chavez and other radical populists. But that may not necessarily
be the case, because the agenda items many of these new governments will likely
focus on -- e.g., free trade and security --are not exactly deliverables that
come easy to this administration. Indeed, there could be a new push for
increased regional economic integration based on the principles of free trade,
which will refocus attention on the moribund deals pending with Colombia and
Panama, as well as the incomplete Doha Round of global trade talks.
New leaders may also press
Washington for more help on law-and-order issues, combating transnational
crime, gangs, and more specifically, the brutal drug trade spawned by U.S.
domestic demand for illicit narcotics. President Obama wants to extend a hand a
friendship; many new leaders will want helicopters and police training
instead. Nor is a rightward trend likely to calm other regional
hotspots. There is every possibility the administration will have to deal
with more constitutional disruptions in the region à la Honduras. Not only
do conditions in Venezuela continue to deteriorate under Chavez's erratic rule,
but situations in Argentina and Nicaragua appear to be entering new stages of
political instability. Here's hoping the administration is better prepared
than last time to deal with a drastic turn of events in those cases.
Read More
(0)
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE