What should be the Obama administration's
focus in the Middle East for Year Two? For me, it's a no-brainer: consolidating
success in Iraq and supporting democratic change in Iran.
Iraq is at an important crossroads. Things could go very well in 2010 or
they could begin to unravel. There's no doubt that President Obama's
artificially imposed August timeline for removing all U.S. combat troops has
introduced an unnecessary element of added uncertainty to the mix, and will
serve as an accelerant of instability.
That said, the process remains manageable if
balanced by steady progress in the political, economic, diplomatic, and
security spheres, mainly: 1) Another
free and fair parliamentary election that, without excessive delay, produces a
reasonably competent national government; 2)
The start of a serious campaign to deliver basic services, attract foreign
investment, and generate jobs and economic growth for the Iraqi people; 3) Iraq's further integration into its
own neighborhood; and 4) The
continued strengthening of the Iraqi security services. All these tasks
remain seriously challenging, but eminently achievable -- especially if
buttressed by deep, consistent American engagement, led by Obama himself, that
reflects an appreciation for Iraq's critical importance to the Persian Gulf
region and the enormous long-term benefits that would accrue from an effective
U.S.-Iraqi strategic partnership.
In Iran, the administration's current strategy leaves it confronting a series
of bad choices: stand by while the Islamic Republic gets ever closer to
acquiring nuclear weapons; support military action to destroy Iran's nuclear
capability; or (less likely) strike a "deal" with Iran's illegitimate
rulers that few believe they will keep. An infinitely better outcome -- and one
that, since June 12, is now well within the realm of possibility (if still not
probable) -- would be the success of Iran's democratic opposition, the
so-called Green Movement. Advancing an agenda of greater democracy, human
rights, the rule of law, and Iran's reconciliation with the outside world, the
Greens' triumph promises tremendous strategic payoffs to the United States --
not to mention the Iranian people. While not a panacea, the effective end of
the Islamic Republic as we have known it these past 30 years, and its
replacement by a democratizing regime seeking to restore Iran's status as a
"normal," non-revolutionary regional power, would almost certainly
make the problems posed by its nuclear program and support for terrorism far
more amenable to diplomatic resolution.
More broadly, the demise of Iran's theocratic dictatorship would constitute a
major victory for the West in the broader war on terror. Khomeini's 1979
revolution marked the birth of modern Islamist radicalism and anti-American
terrorism. The mullahs' success in seizing control of a major Middle
Eastern state and waging a three-decade long campaign of hostilities against
America, the "Great Satan," has inspired extremists across the
Sunni-Shiite divide, including al Qaeda. Khomeiniism's defeat at the hands of a
peaceful, democratic opposition committed to re-establishing relations with
America would strike a devastating blow in the ideological struggle that lies
at the heart of the West's confrontation with violent jihadism. Indeed,
it's no stretch to say that it would mark the most positive and transformative
geo-strategic development since the collapse of Soviet communism. Given that
fact ... given the very real -- albeit still small -- chance that the Green revolution
could actually succeed in the next 12-24 months ... and given the paucity of
favorable policy alternatives ... U.S.
interests would be well served by a concerted strategy to do everything
possible to support the Greens' success.
It's worth noting the intense synergies between these efforts in Iraq and Iran.
After all, what better form of pressure could we hope to exert on Iran's
illegitimate rulers than the example of a credible election in next-door Iraq,
where the world's most highly esteemed, but quietist Shiite clergy serves not
to steal the peoples' votes, but as the foremost guardian of the integrity of
the democratic process? And how much greater would Iraq's chances of success
become absent the Islamic Republic's harmful meddling and support for violent
extremists? Of course, it goes without saying that were President Obama
actually to succeed in forging a new axis of democratic cooperation between the
United States, Iraq, and Iran -- arguably, the Gulf's three most influential
powers -- it would not only revolutionize the geopolitics of the Middle East;
it would also guarantee his place as a truly consequential foreign policy
president.
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