Tuesday, December 22, 2009 - 11:00 PM

Editors' note: As the year winds down, Shadow Government will
indulge in the conceit that is the birthright of opinionated people everywhere:
providing our own "best of" list relating to foreign policy.
Today's list: "Gifts we would put under the White House Christmas tree."
In the coming days: Person of the Year, Story of the Year, more...
I wish I could give President Obama a cure for the Winner's Curse, the phenomenon of the winning bidder in an auction paying more than the item is worth just so they can win. Variants of this curse have characterized the President's first year in office, whether it is the challenge of dealing with fractious hyper-partisan super-majorities in the House and Senate, the unrealistic expectations hyped up by campaign rhetoric, the bloated stimulus package, or, more recently, agreeing to anything, anything, provided that it gets Obamacare 60 votes in the Senate. President Obama has many things to tout in the annual laundry list we call the State of the Union address, but every one of them is probably worth less than what was paid to purchase them.
A bust of Harry Truman for the Oval Office. Since the White House earlier this year returned the bust of Churchill to the U.K. government, there is likely some empty shelf space in the Oval Office. A small statue of Truman would pay fitting tribute to one of the most distinguished Democratic presidents, who crafted the grand strategy and institutions to eventually defeat the foremost ideological foe of the day, sacrificed his personal popularity to fight a necessary but unpopular hot war, and worked closely with Republicans to forge a bipartisan consensus on Cold War policy.
A foreign policy gift I would give the Obamas for the holidays would be an Israeli pledge to give sanctions a chance for another twelve months and not to bomb Iran during that period. Should Israel strike Iranian targets, the United States will be blamed (even if we oppose the strikes) and not only will our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan be vulnerable to Iranian retaliation, but Iran might use Venezuela as a base for launching attacks on US interests in the Western Hemisphere.
Scholars should handle dissertation references referring to this good post in a right way, just because they need it a dissertation in future.
So foreign-policy expert Peter Feaver sees fit to render judgement on the stimulus (which was too small to close the output gap according to textbook theory) and health insurance reform (which he refers to, tellingly, as 'Obamacare').
If there was ever any doubt that Dr. Feaver is, first and foremost, a Republican hack, this post should resolve it.
re: Gifts we would put under the White House Christmas tree
For me, I think I would like to put under the Christmas tree is more job opportunity and a bright future. The credit and lending industry is waiting for recovery and for a return to more profits. Granted, it's hard to feel sympathetic for them, especially credit card companies. TransUnion, one of the 3 credit rating bureaus has been studying market and credit trends over the past few months, and they expect defaults and delinquencies to slow over the next year, and that people want to pay off debts, but unemployment is currently the biggest obstacle. Current trends indicate it will be some time before credit cards and mortgage, auto, and other installment loans can be lent with the same leniency as before, if ever.
Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.
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