Wednesday, December 2, 2009 - 2:09 AM
By Peter Feaver
It was not a great speech but it was, at long last, a brave decision and President Obama deserves (and needs) the support of the loyal opposition.
As speechcraft, it was disappointing. The front section was oddly defensive, with its graceless passive voice avoidance of crediting the old policies and its needless albeit veiled shots at Bush, its tendentious rendering of the Afghan war timeline, and most unfortunate of all, its artless spin ("there has never been an option before me that called for troop deployments before 2010, so there has been no delay or denial of resources necessary for the conduct of the war.") The discussion of the stakes and the rationale for this option over alternatives and the explanation of the logic of this strategy (and why it will work when previous ones did not) was flat. It was certainly helpful that he included the middle section with its explicit pre-buttal of three counterarguments, but he straw-manned those critiques and I did not find his counterarguments very persuasive (even on the ones I agreed with). The penultimate section, a laundry list of to do items and bromides sounded like a flat State of the Union address (mercifully without the jack-in-the-box response to applause lines).
The brightest spot, rhetorically, was the surprising ode to America with which he closed the speech. It was Reaganesque, thick with praise for what America has done (and not merely what it should have done) and almost entirely devoid of the apology-tour lines that many have found so grating (save one that escaped the editor "... and perhaps not as innocent ..."). This was the section that got the spontaneous applause -- patriotic paeans will always please patriots who volunteer to serve in our armed forces -- and it was the high point of the speech.
(For those who had ears to hear, there was a (perhaps unintended) homage to Secretary Rumsfeld: Obama referred to the conflict-formerly-known-as-the-war-on-terror as a "struggle against violent extremism" very close to the GSAVE -- Global Struggle Against Violent Extremism -- that Rumsfeld peddled.)
But as policy, it was much better. It was almost exactly what you could have predicted (and many did predict) within days of the McChrystal leak: a "split the difference" hybrid option, not exactly what the commanders requested, but closer to that than the "security on the cheap" options that were leaked out of the review process. The president talked about timelines, but I do not think he tied himself to the mast. He didn't specify a date certain by which time he would "end" the war; instead, he identified a target for when he would begin to roll back his surge. That target was far enough into the future to allow him ample wiggle room yet, conveniently for the 2012 election, early enough to perhaps head of a primary challenge from a hard-left anti-war candidate.
And, bottom line: He did not evoke memories of Patton but he did evoke plenty of criticism from the left (judging from the early punditry on MSNBC) because Obama ordered a surge and committed himself to successfully ending the war, not just ending it. Perhaps that is all and more than can be expected.
What a Strange Assessment of His Speech
I am going to preface this comment by saying that I do not support a surge in troops in Afghanistan. Rather, I feel that Robert Pape's prescription outlined in the nytimes is probably the best strategy for dealing with the country.
I found a very strange tension in your critique of Obama's speech. Are you evaluating the Obama speech delivery or the speech itself?
First off you state, "The discussion of the stakes and the rationale for this option over alternatives and the explanation of the logic of this strategy (and why it will work when previous ones did not) was flat."
Later, you write that "The brightest spot, rhetorically, was the surprising ode to America with which he closed the speech. It was Reaganesque, thick with praise for what America has done (and not merely what it should have done) and almost entirely devoid of the apology-tour lines that many have found so grating (save one that escaped the editor "... and perhaps not as innocent ...").
You're basically saying that policy-heavy section was too boring, or maybe even... too policy-heavy. However, when Obama waxes over the so-called American moral position in the world, you give him heavy praise. In this sense, you loved the BS, but didn't have the attention span for the actual FP meat.
I can say that I am delighted that Obama gave us a "flat" summary of his strategic prescriptions rather than some nonsense about defending freedom and democracy (a la Bush/Cheney/Rummy/Wolfy/et al). Lack of strategic foresight and specific planning is what lead us into one of the greatest foreign policy blunders of the Unipolar Age.
I think it was an excellent speech as far as content is concerned. If criticizing his rhetorical shaping is the only criticism you can come up with, I think your Foreign Policy gravitas need to be evaluated.
Obama uses defense as an economic tool?
The time frame that the new policy has drawn up for the increased numbers and eventual withdrawal ("end") would seem to suggest that it may be in keeping with Keynesian tactic of spending to invigorate the economy and maybe he hopes he would end the Afghan war by the time the economy is well on the way to recovery. All political tactics seem to be successful if there is a successful economic angle to it. Sometimes economics has a political angle to it too as it may be in Western strategic interests to weaken the city state of Dubai.
sorry - the Obama 'strategy' is and will be undermined by a central and debilitating contradiction: according to the logic of COIN doctrine, as defined by Petraeus and McChystal, the fewer the troops you commit the more flexible any timeline you unwisely choose to impose needs to be - Obama has imposed a fixed and unreasonable timeline on an incongruously modest deployment of troops. This amounts to a SERIOUS flaw and suggests the real objective of the announced strategy has more to do with domestic politics and less to do with a sound and coherent foreign policy. At the very least, if one insists on assuming Obama's motives to be pure, at the very least it suggests a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of war in general and COIN in particular.
The Foreign Policy Schools of Thought Regarding the Strategy
President Obama's speech reflected an interesting tone, smoothly shuttling between Wilsonian and Walter Mead's self described "Jacksonian" schools of thought. The President made it clear that the US had a vital national interest in creating a "peaceful...community [in Afghanistan] that accepts the rule of law", a la the Wilsonian school. The President seeks a "partnership with Afghanistan grounded in mutual respect in which America is your partner, and never your patron." He continues laying our his ideals for mutual interest, respect and trust, stalling corruption, and above all, strengthening the Afghan National Security Forces to take the lead.
The President also calls to Mead's Jacksonian school when he clearly articulates his goals for the "physical security and economic well being of the American people. The President repeatedly discussed his requirement for denying al Qaeda safe havens in both Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as reversing the Taliban's momentum in the region. He declared both of these groups a physical threat to America's security. Finally, the President made it clear, for better or worse, the option he chose was one that he could achieve at a reasonable cost. For him, he wanted to solve the Afghanistan issue so he could spend his time and efforts "rebuilding America's economy and jobs market."
Two issues give me pause. The first is the comment about solving the Afghanistan issue at an appropriate cost. The President did not articulate what cost he finds sufficient or appropriate. Is it a cost in dollars, military lives, political capital? Setting a baseline objective for a war based on cost is dangerous. If you should happen to run out of money, do you stop even if you haven't achieved your objectives? This needs answered. Second, the President declared he would begin withdrawing forces in July of 2011 because it inherently gives us a "sense of urgency in working with the Afghanistan Government." True, but it also gives the enemy a mark on the wall for planning as well. What is to stop them from easing off operations for a while until America leaves, then starting over again? These groups in Afghanistan have done it before, what is to stop them from doing it again?
Overall, the speech was a decent step forward in which the military and civilians ultimately tasked with the mission can begin planning. I do hope there are many more details in the President's plan that simply did not get addressed due to the allotted time for the speech and the attention span of the average American.
A local professor here in the Bay Area graded Obama's speech as though it were a college composition assignment. It's a pretty funny piece. You can read it here:
http://weeklyrader.blogspot.com
I think he gives the speech too high a grade, but he's grading it on style and organization-not content
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Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.
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