By Jamie M. Fly
The events of the past week pose a challenge to President
Obama's vision of a world without nuclear weapons. Last week in Vienna,
the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) met to
discuss Iran and Syria's continued stonewalling of IAEA investigations into
illicit nuclear activities carried out by each country.
On November 16, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei
submitted reports on both countries to the members of the Board. His
report on Iran was perhaps the strongest IAEA report on Iran to date. It
found that Iran violated its safeguards obligations by not reporting the
existence of a covert enrichment facility near Qom. The report also noted
that Iran continues to not cooperate with the IAEA's investigation into Iran's
pre-2003 covert weaponization program. It was a damning final report from
ElBaradei, who retired at the end of last week having spent much of his
twelve years at the helm of the IAEA trying to cajole the Iranians into coming
clean, often undermining U.S. and Western efforts to pressure in the process.
President Obama has relied heavily on ElBaradei to try to
broker a deal to transfer a significant portion of Iran's stockpile of low
enriched uranium out of Iran for processing into fuel for Iran's research
reactor. Despite reportedly agreeing to a deal last month in Geneva, Iran
has since backed away from the deal, reverting to its traditional negotiating
tactics.
It had been almost four years since the Board of Governors
passed a resolution condemning Iran's actions, even as Iran has flouted
successive United Nations Security Council resolutions and stymied ElBaradei's
IAEA. On Friday, the Board reacted to the recent revelation of Qom and
Iran's continued stonewalling of the IAEA investigation by approving a
resolution calling on Iran to suspend construction at Qom and expressing
concern that Iran's recent actions as well as its failure to implement the
Additional Protocol limit the IAEA's ability to verify that Iran's nuclear
program is purely for peaceful purposes.
The Bush administration
tried repeatedly to push the board to pass such a resolution last year as
Iran's noncompliance became more and more egregious. Unfortunately, the
administration backed down quickly (too quickly in my view), when it became clear
that Russia and China did not support such an action. The fact that
Russia and China supported last week's resolution is a positive sign, but there
are already debates among
experts about how strong the resolution was and whether it is tantamount
to a second referral of the Iranian nuclear file to the United Nations Security
Council. It is likely that the Obama administration agreed to water down
the resolution to keep Russia and China on board. Russian and Chinese
acquiescence in Vienna does not mean that they will support meaningful
sanctions in New York early next year.
However, if Iran's
initial reaction to Friday's resolution is any indication, Iran could be the
Obama administration's greatest ally in getting China and Russia to support
sanctions. A conservative Iranian member of
parliament threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT). On Sunday, President Ahmadinejad announced that Iran
would build ten more uranium enrichment facilities. The second
threat is likely just that, a threat. Iran lacks the capacity to build
large scale enrichment facilities very quickly -- witness the fact that Qom was
still not operational despite reportedly being under construction for
years. The threat to withdraw from the NPT however, is more
troublesome. If Iran were to do this, it could be a trigger for Israeli
military action. If the IAEA is unable to verify the location of Iran's
nuclear material, Obama administration officials may have to consider U.S.
military action or risk diversion of nuclear material to covert
facilities.
On Syria, the Board last week missed an opportunity to send
a message to the Assad regime. ElBaradei's latest report makes clear
that Syria has adopted the Iranian playbook on handling IAEA
investigations. The report says that Syria has not responded to the
IAEA's questions about its former covert nuclear reactor at Al Kibar even
though some of its early answers contradict information that the IAEA has
obtained from other sources. Syria has also refused to give the IAEA
access to other facilities related to Al Kibar, claiming that these are
sensitive military sites even though the IAEA has reminded Syria that under its
safeguards agreement, this is not a reason to deny the IAEA access. In
addition to unanswered questions about Al Kibar, the report raises new concerns
about illicit activity at Syria's declared research reactor near
Damascus.
Unlike Iran, Syria at the moment is experiencing a renaissance
in its relations with the United States as well as Europe. This will have
to change if the international community is serious about upholding the nuclear
nonproliferation regime. The Board of Governors, which has largely been
silent on the Syria nuclear issue, should have sent a strong message to
Damascus that unless the Assad regime begins to share information, it will be
subject to the same treatment as Iran (including eventual referral to the
Security Council for further action).
The issue is not that Syria has an ongoing nuclear program
(although it is difficult for the IAEA to verify this given Syria's lack
of cooperation), but it is about the sanctity of the nuclear nonproliferation
regime and the message that needs to be sent to other countries thinking about
shirking their commitments. The lesson cannot be that such countries will
be slapped on the wrist but then quickly forgiven, only to receive increased
trade and diplomatic relations from the United States and Europe.
How President Obama handles these two issues in the
coming months will say much about how serious he is about his supposed
goal of ridding the world of nuclear weapons. As Obama said in
his April speech in Prague after North Korea violated several United Nations
Security Council Resolutions by conducting a missile test, "Rules must be
binding. Violations must be punished. Words must mean something."
Last week's IAEA Board resolution on Iran was a start, but
there is much work to be done before he can turn this rhetoric into
reality.
JOE KLAMAR/AFP/Getty Images
Read More
(6)
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE