
By Phil Levy
In Tokyo, President Obama spoke out in favor of trade. It was not exactly the much-heralded Trade Speech, in which he would lay out a detailed agenda and soothe U.S. public fears that he himself had helped to arouse. Instead, this talk was addressed to an Asian audience, but it offered some tantalizing new details and a near embrace of some free trade agreements. The President said:
Continued integration of the economies of this region will benefit workers, consumers, and businesses in all of our nations. Together, with our South Korean friends, we will work through the issues necessary to move forward on a trade agreement with them. The United States will also be engaging with the Trans Pacific partnership countries with the goal of shaping a regional agreement that will have broad-based membership and the high standards worthy of a 21st century trade agreement.
Rather than drawing inspiration from the president's oratory, as U.S. and European audiences often had, Asian leaders greeted the president's trade stance with skepticism. As the Financial Times reported:
Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's first prime minister and a regional elder statesman, said the US risked economic exclusion from Asia unless it reversed its protectionist stance. ...
Najib Razak, Malaysia's prime minister, ... told the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Singapore that progress on trade liberalisation was "imperative" for global recovery. "The thing I liked about President Bush's foreign policy is that he was very pro-free trade. I hope the same message will be repeated."
- some evidence that the Bush administration did not entirely neglect Asia for eight years.
One might have expected Obama's vague statements in favor of the Doha trade talks, moving forward with South Korea, and engaging with the mysterious Trans Pacific Partnership to have at least created a warm glow about U.S. sentiments. After all, similarly vague statements about avoiding protectionism and supporting the WTO garnered kudos at G-20 summits in London and Pittsburgh earlier this year.
Whether the APEC leaders were more discriminating than other audiences, cared more about trade, were more astute in their reading of American trade politics, or had just learned from past experience, they seemed unsatisfied. Perhaps with recent disputes fresh in their minds, they seemed to ask, "where's the beef?" And they were right to worry.
The global trading system has not been lacking in kindly thoughts and well wishes. It's been lacking in strong leadership and specific proposals. Fingers have been pointing at the Obama administration. The Doha global trade talks that were declared essential in the G-20 sessions have been foundering. Last month, the European Union and Brazil criticized the United States for failing to put forward specific demands. This month, WTO Director General Pascal Lamy commented that "the U.S. is proving to be slow in reaching a clear and articulated negotiating position." If it were translated from the excessively cordial language of international diplomacy, that remark would likely be unprintable in a family publication.
Ostensibly, the Korean FTA is unacceptable to President Obama and Congressional Democrats because the Koreans have had the audacity to intervene in their auto market. Korea, as a major trading nation, has not been as pliable as other U.S. FTA partners and has made clear in the past that they are not interested in renegotiating the agreement with the United States. Instead, Korea has just concluded a similar agreement with the European Union that will put American exporters at a disadvantage in the Korean market.
The novelty in the president's announcement concerned the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and was sufficiently obscure to leave many people scratching their heads. In fact, the United States had already joined TPP talks with Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore late in 2008 under President Bush's direction. Obama's announcement in Tokyo seemed to indicate a lifting of his administration's suspension decision from earlier this year: small wonder that it received a tepid response. Even had the President wholeheartedly embraced a TPP deal, that would not have meant much on its own, since the United States already has FTAs with Chile and Singapore. Brunei's entire annual GDP is roughly $20 billion, which is less than the U.S. government has poured into Citigroup.
The reason to care about the TPP was its potential to serve as a platform for serious integration throughout Asia. For a region that places a high value on trade, the Asia-Pacific has had a great deal of difficulty finding the right path toward liberalization. APEC has made trade pledges in the past, but the group has a very diverse membership and likely cannot serve as the vehicle for a high-standards regional FTA. More promising was the idea that if Australia and Japan were coaxed into joining a sophisticated TPP, the resulting FTA might then have opened its doors to any other Pacific nation willing to accept its terms. Unfortunately, the Obama administration has given no indication that it's willing to lead such an ambitious undertaking
A prerequisite for a serious U.S. trade policy would be new trade negotiating authority for the president, which the Obama administration has not even requested from the Congress. For any of these trade initiatives to advance would require persistent and detailed effort of a sort we have yet to see. Obama may be a Pacific president, but he has not been a very specific president. Asian leaders last week were asking for more than platitudes.
MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images
EXPLORE:PACIFIC, BUSH ADMINISTRATION, CHINA, JAPAN, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, TRADE, U.S. CONGRESS, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY
Well you can't blame them with all this talk of change and things being different from now on.Lofty campaign promises to both America and to the rest of the world about American intentions will horrible backfire if there is not even an attempt to follow through and I mean come on if the most powerful person on the planet says one thing and then does nothing it's not really change then is it???
President Obama went to Asia with a trade policy aimed at getting him through this trip to Asia.
I appreciate the difficulty Obama faces in developing policy in so many different areas, several of which the last administration left in crisis. If he felt he had to go to Asia, though, he needed to have something to say: a step forward on the Korean FTA, commentary on the energy given protectionists by China's artificially weak currency, something. And if he had nothing to say, maybe he shouldn't have gone.
It seems trade is not one of the administration's first priorities.
Is it surprising that Asian countries, which depend on exports to the US, place more emphasis on trade?
Is this really a time when we should subject firms and workers in the US to increased pressure from trade?
When trade protection was pushed into the stimulus bill by Congress, is it fair to insinuate that this should be a mark against Obama? When the administration has to invest time and effort in fighting against opposition obstruction on every front from policy on Honduras to minor appointments, shouldn't the pro-trade opposition also share some of the responsibility?
Levy seems to be of the "more trade is always better" school, which looks only at the main effects of trade but not how the costs and benefits are distributed, which can lead to increased inequality. (Sure, I can buy T-shirts at 5 for $10, but I don't need that many T-shirts - their marginal utility is 0 - and someone in North Carolina is permanently unemployed or mopping the floors at WalMart.)
Pushing the trade agenda hardly seems to be the first priority. Perhaps we also need to give more consideration to the linkage between trade and environment and labor. Perhaps we need a re-assessment of our agenda before we begin a new round of negotiations?
I am more concerned about the negoitiations and discussions that occurred of camera, especially those between our trade and State Dept. representatives at the staff levels. What is the news from there?
Mr. Levy:
Your analysis from the American perspective seems to hold water, but there is little mention of Asian perspectives that are impeding the implementation of these free trade agreements. For better or worse (probably worse) it is not only the American public that reviles free trade. The South Korean public does not seem abundantly interested in Free Trade, and their go-in-alone, "everybody follow me", president Lee Myeong Bak has perhaps learned his lesson from the American Beef crisis of two summers ago, and decided not to ram a FTA down the public's throat. Remember: Korea is more interested in selling their products to the world and buying the world's products in Korea. Nationalism plays a large part in this, and consumers are willing to pay ~12 dollars for a lb of korean grown red beans that would cost 1-2 dollars if they had been imported. There is the wide belief that korean grown food is healthier, and superior in taste than foods originating from abroad. In 2008 the prospect of Korea importing beef from America spawned large street protests, resulting in students being blasted by water cannons to keep them in line. In these columns there has been the widespread accusation that Obama is dithering on free trade (especially with Korea), when in reality there may not be much he can do when Koreans do not want a FTA.
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