Wednesday, October 28, 2009 - 4:44 PM

Sunday was another tragic day in Iraq, more than 150 people were killed and another 500 injured in attacks on the Ministries of Justice and Interior in Baghdad. The devastation was another sad reminder of how fragile are the gains bought so dearly by Iraqis and Americans -- military and civilian -- working every day in that country to consolidate progress toward a secure and representative Iraq.
Those who believe Iraq was "the wrong war," or that violence and authoritarianism are endemic in a country with such deep sectarian divisions, or those who practice the soft bigotry of low expectations (as President Bush so nicely phrased it in a different context), and believe Muslims incapable of democracy will likely see these attacks as justification for accelerating our disengagement from Iraq. Such a conclusion is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the domestic politics of Iraq in the run up to their January provincial elections.
War is the extension of politics by other means, as Clausewitz teaches, and domestic politics is what these attacks were about. Iraqi security forces are struggling to prevent such attacks. Prime Minister Maliki's confidence in their ability has always run ahead of their actual performance (as early as 2005 he advocated a security hand over) and he has been party to politicizing their ranks.
But Maliki is running on a platform of providing security and negotiating the U.S. withdrawal. Anything that calls security into question or precipitates a return by American military forces into Iraq's cities (from which we had withdrawn on June 30 in accordance with the Strategic Framework Agreement) hurts Maliki's claim. And it doesn't just hurt Maliki, it hurts other incumbent politicians, like the Mayor of Baghdad, who also argued for removing blast walls to facilitate movement and commerce and a return to normalcy in the capital.
After the last spectacular attack, against the Foreign Ministry on Aug. 19, Prime Minister Maliki responded in a stridently partisan fashion, blaming Sunni and al Qaeda as one, conducting arrests and crackdowns that have a suspicious political tilt against his political opponents. While the U.S. military spokesman tried to put a good face on the Iraqi government's reaction, comparing it to the crasser political manipulation of the Aug. 19 bombings, Maliki's statement in the aftermath speaks for itself:
The cowardly acts of terrorism which occurred today must not weaken the resolution of Iraqis to continue their journey and to fight the followers of the fallen regime, the Baathists and al-Qaeda."
This, before the government had any reasonable idea of who conducted the attacks. There are numerous political factions that could benefit from delegitimizing the Maliki government's record, not least rival Shi'ia who excluded him from being their standard bearer in the election.
But the good news is that political pluralism has taken root in Iraqi politics. Maliki couldn't win the support of a Shi'ia-only slate organizing for the January elections, so he opted to build a cross-sectarian slate. He's not trying very hard, mind you, as his statement blaming Sunni for Sunday's bombing shows. But his effort to appeal across sectarian lines was his Hail Mary (so to speak) and shows he believed voters would reward the choice. Vice President Tariq al Hashimi, a Sunni, is likewise tacking beyond sectarianism to broaden his prospective political base.
This is a hugely important development, seldom seen in fragile societies. Usually, as with the Balkan elections of the early 1990s, politicians prey on voters' mistrust and trend toward extremes which is why elections in factional societies are so often polarizing and foster an upward spiral of violence.
In the last provincial elections, nearly all incumbents were voted out of office, a strong signal that average Iraqis believed they weren't doing their jobs. And voters weren't just "simplifying the map," moving to the sectarian extreme out of fear: Shi'ia voted out Shi'ia, Sunni voted out Sunni, Kurd voted out Kurd. What Iraqi political elites took from that election is the fundamental commandment of democracy everywhere: Thou Shalt Respect the Voters.
Talking to Iraqi politicians (as I did the past couple of weeks around their country), what is most striking is the extent to which they sound like small-city politicians in our own country. They worry about power outages and sewer systems and the quality of education for youngsters. They're mad at the central government for not funding activity they consider its responsibility. They rail against corruption -- even as many of them practice it -- and fear exposure by the free media that is burgeoning. Accountability has come to Iraqi politics, and the politicians know it.
A representative government is struggling to emerge in Iraq. It may not succeed in bridging the sectarian tensions, corruption, and long shadow of decades of authoritarianism that inhibits initiative. In Iraq, strong cultural undercurrents cut against the kinds of behavior that make successful democracies successful. But Iraqis want it, and political elites are responding. This is good news for Iraq and for the advancement of our values in the world.
AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images
Please, Dr. Schake:
Can there be anyone left who really believes that Iraq was the right war? The ostensible reasons for the invasion - that Iraq was hiding WMD and was in cahoots with al Qaeda - have long since been demolished.
Subsequently promulgated rationales for the war are after-the-fact justifications for a disastrous decision, nothing more.
A war to topple a cruel dictator and install a government founded on elections cannot be the right war when it causes massive death, suffering, dislocation and destruction, and causes significant harm to US standing and interests.
It does not follow, however, that everyone who thinks this was the wrong war wants the US out ASAP, or will take this bombing as "justification for accelerating" our withdrawal. It is entirely possible to recognize that the invation was an enormous mistake, and yet still consider that continued US involvement is consistent with US interests or a US responsibility to help put the country back together after the invasion tore it apart.
Violence and authoritarianism are endemic in Iraq, Iraq was the wrong war, and the soft bigotry of low expectations was an election campaign slogan. However, the good news reported here is that the political progress in Iraq should make it possible to accelerate the American withdrawal from the country.
Politics is the name of game in Iraq
Like the ending, because in America the only thing that people really ever hear about Iraq these days is the violence, which is wildly misleading. Attacks and deaths are at their lowest levels since the invasion. Violence is still at unacceptable levels as symbolized by the Baghdad bombings, but it is nothing like the sectarian war of 2005-2006. What has changed about Iraq, is that the big game is not fighting, but politics. The Sunnis are trying to participate in large numbers after boycotting the 2005 elections. That's the reason why violence is so low, because since the Jan. 09 provincial elections, even some insurgents have tried their hand at the political game. Now Iraq's politics have all kinds of problems, namely that parliament is so divided that it can hardly ever do anything, but that in itself is a huge change from when Iraq was a failed state with 2,000 people getting killed a month, and everything seemed to be going to hell.
Schake:
"Talking to Iraqi politicians (as I did the past couple of weeks around their country), what is most striking is the extent to which they sound like small-city politicians in our own country. They worry about power outages and sewer systems and the quality of education for youngsters."
Don't all politicians care about the living conditions of their electorate? Why would Iraq's be any different?
Ah! So we won after all.
Nice of you to use a humanitarian tragedy like this for political talking points, Kori. Rather than harping on these issues, why not face up to some reality?
1) The US withdrawal is mandated under the current SOFA, negotiated by W. Staying in violation of that would be a really stupid thing to do, and I doubt that Maliki or any other Iraqi leader is going to tear the SOFA up so we can stay. We're leaving.
2) Political stability is extremely unlikely, not because Arabs can't handle democracy, but because societies with recent histories of sectarian and ethnic violence as severe as that suffered in Iraq are not normally very stable. As yet, there are no indications that Iraq is going to be different on this count, based on the behavior of the main factions.
It's time to face reality. W is gone, the invasion of Iraq was a huge mistake, and withdrawal is now both the only legal option and the best way for the US to begin to rehabilitate itself.
Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.
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