Posted By Peter Feaver Share

By Peter Feaver

What is the scariest thing I have read recently on Afghanistan?

It is not the leaks from General McChrystal's strategy assessment, though they are certainly sobering enough. McChrystal's statement that the situation in Afghanistan is "serious" but salvageable should banish irrational exuberance about the war (if any is left after 8 years). But by itself, it does not indicate a worse-than-we-realize situation. On the contrary, the attentive public and the expert community has consumed a steady diet of bleak reports from the field and so I, at least, do not have to revise downward my evaluation of the battlefield prospects for McChrystal's efforts in Afghanistan.

Nor is it the steady drumbeat of complaint of electoral fraud in the recent election. It is depressing to realize that this last vote was probably the least "free and fair" of any of the several elections or referenda in the combined theaters of Afghanistan and Iraq, but the purity of the election is not the most urgent concern in Afghanistan. A better election would have been nice, but would not have substantially altered the near-to-mid-term prognosis there.

Nor even is it George Will's remarkable column calling for the United States to retreat from Afghanistan. It reads like a 3-M column: part come-home-America George McGovern, part loopy Michael Moore, and part Jack Murtha. Perhaps it is the Murtha correspondence that I find most telling, for what distinguished Murtha was the absence of any serious plan for meeting U.S. national security objectives once the troops were pulled out. George Will, at least thus far, doesn't offer one either. Will's column is a depressing read, but it is not scary.

No, the scariest thing I read was in a McClatchy report on Pentagon concerns about President Obama. The key segment is here:

WASHINGTON - The prospect that U.S. Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal may ask for as many as 45,000 additional American troops in Afghanistan is fueling growing tension within President Barack Obama's administration over the U.S. commitment to the war there.

On Monday, McChrystal sent his assessment of the situation in Afghanistan to the Pentagon, the U.S. Central Command, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and NATO. Although the assessment didn't include any request for more troops, senior military officials said they expect McChrystal later in September to seek between 21,000 and 45,000 more troops. There currently are 62,000 American troops in Afghanistan.

However, administration officials said that amid rising violence and casualties, polls that show a majority of Americans now think the war in Afghanistan isn't worth fighting. With tough battles ahead on health care, the budget and other issues, Vice President Joe Biden and other officials are increasingly anxious about how the American public would respond to sending additional troops.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to talk to the media, said Biden has argued that without sustained support from the American people, the U.S. can't make the long-term commitment that would be needed to stabilize Afghanistan and dismantle al Qaida. Biden's office declined to comment.

"I think they (the Obama administration) thought this would be more popular and easier," a senior Pentagon official said. "We are not getting a Bush-like commitment to this war."

This last quote really brought me up short. There are few things more toxic for effective civil-military relations in wartime than the military believing that their political commanders are not serious about seeing the conflict through to a successful conclusion. No army can remain more resolved than the Commander-in-Chief is -- not for very long, anyway. And once doubts about that resolve seep into the interagency and theater decision-making process, they are very hard to eradicate. Indeed, once entrenched, efforts to rebut them with bold statements of resolve suffer from the "thou doth protest too much" problem and may even reinforce those doubts.

Only one thing could scare me more: If these doubts are based on first-person encounters with President Obama and his top-most national security team. In my experience, even "senior Pentagon officials" can have only vague and dodgy understandings of what the president actually believes. During the Bush years, I sometimes encountered people matching that anonymous source's description who based their assessments primarily on what they had read in the newspapers, not on any real knowledge of White House discussions. For the time being, then, I am hoping this story is based on a misapprehension of President Obama's resolve. But I will be watching closely to see if it is based in fact. If so, the Afghanistan mission is in real trouble.

 
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JJH722

3:20 AM ET

September 2, 2009

pfft.

Please. This is a laughable blog post. It reads like a point by point argument against a renewed commitment to this thirdworld backwater, only to turn around and say the most negative thing about the current campaign is our president's doubts. be grateful he does have doubts. we have been there 8 years, pal. what have we been doing? what was bush doing? was he asking the military commanders how things are going? if they said "everything's good", did he stop asking questions? Wars aren't baseball games, where managers (President Obama) ask players (Generals) if they're "alright," hand them an ass-slap and tell them to get going. People on both sides are dying. Policymakers have to dig deeper. Obviously, it would be optimal to "win," but considering the massive commitment we and the international community have already made, people naturally start having doubts about what's possible. Bush never did this, and it got us into two quagmires.
I wish the National Review would take you as a blogger, because I find your posts laughably partisan and ridiculous. And I don't read that crap magazine. Given your intense partisanship, and because George Will probably worked at the NR at one point, you feel the need to bash him and his recently revealed anti-war opinions specifically. So you tag him with labels nauseating to conservatives--Jack Murtha (I agree, that FBI tape is nauseating), George McGovern, and Michael Moore. I guess you want to insinuate that Will puts emotion ahead of clear-thinking on this issue. Not to be too catty, but this post is much more driven by partisan emotion than substantial argument--Will's is driven by quotes from people involved in the campaign (like soldiers and commanders) and fact-based reasoning. Even on that issue of our "national security threats" in the hypothetical "post-pullout" environment. I wish as much thought had gone into the "post-invasion" planning in both of these disastrous boondoggles, which you, respected professor that you are, likely championed with fists pumping.
On top of that, to steal an idea from FP's Steve Walt, where else in the world other than Afghanistan would you put these terrorists? Somalia? Well, that's where they'll head if we win. What a win it would be. If aerial bombing is good enough for Pakistan (a nuclear state), then it is surely enough for the most rugged, underdeveloped, wartorn "narcostate" in the world. Afghanistan is not a state. It is like the FATA in Pakistan--both on ethnic lines and in terms of govt. effectiveness.
Considering your blind faith in our ability to do what the Soviets couldn't (we're trying to put the genie back in the bottle they broke), you might make an argument as to why President Obama SHOULDN'T have doubts about the prospects of the war--since that's obviously your view. You know, tell us why things are going to turn out well there. Nothing? That's probably because you've got nothing.
Your one argument--the idea (hey, you're probably right) that the military gets pessimistic about the prospects for success when Presidents start asking tough questions--isn't good enough. If it were, then I wish they were pessimistic more often for just that reason. Doubts don't lose wars. They reflect what goes on in people's minds when wars are being lost. Ironically, the "captcha" I'm required to enter at the bottom of the post reads "antiwar naivete". That is likely the reaction Mr Feaver--or is it "Dr."? Somehow I doubt your ability to diagnose and mend wounds, especially the self-inflicted sort--would have to this comment.

 

SIMONPETERHONG

4:36 AM ET

September 2, 2009

heh

Of course, President is a human being, and hence is not free from having doubts. However, he certainly does not have to express them, implicitly or explicitly, to his generals. "Doubts don't lose wars"? I don't know; did we have doubts on American forces when we were basically losing almost every single battle in early stages of WWII? (until mid-1942, Coral Sea and Midway) Did FDR show those doubts and thus sack his generals or made them pessimistic? Doug MacArthur did not get sacked even after he basically gave the Philippines to the Japanese (yes, he fought quite well with limited resource, but multiple evidences show that he ignored warnings of invasion and allowed the Japanese to land). British? The situation was more hopeless to people. Blitz is too famous, and basically British troops were losing at every front. Pecival's surrender at Singapore, successful but shameful Dunkirk Evacuation, sinking transports, Auchinleck's troops getting crumpled... But, Churchill boosted morale with his speeches and trust in his generals. He fought with CIGS Alan Brooke a lot, but always valued his opinion. What about Stalin? Heinz Guderian literally advanced to the point where he could see the Kremlin, but Stalin stayed in Moscow, boosting the morale. He might have had doubts against political rivals, but he never showed that he doubted that Ivans will win against the Germansky. Wait, what about Hitler? Did he doubt his generals? Duh. As early as 1941, he sacked Blaskowitz and Blomberg (he doubted their devotion to Nazi party), and he commanded the entire war by himself. Germany wasn't even losing the war then. People were enthusiastic, unlike how they were in the beginning of the war, and Germany conquered France, BENELUX, Poland, etc. It was Hitler who doubted the generals, and that basically marked Germany's strategical high-point; it was bound to lose since then. (Rommel's an exception since Hitler and Goebbels favored him)

Confederates lost because, militarily, Jefferson Davis, himself a soldier, tried to be the overlord. That made Lee go back to the front (yes, they were rather bound to lose, but they still had some chances after all). Lincoln put absolute support behind Grant, no matter how high casualties were. He did sack many generals before Grant because they never really tried to win or were hopelessly incompetent. Are our generals taking care of Afghanistan situation incompetent so that the White House should support them half-heatedly? What is this? Populism? So you're not gonna commit to an ongoing war because people think it's not worth it? Heck, why do we need a president then? Let's just do the 100% democracy like ancient Greeks!

What is leader? Leader is to be followed. People, more or less, follow the leader. If the leader has doubts, and people are aware of them, the doubts would actually be amplified and spread rapidly. Oh yes, people are free to have doubt. But the president does NOT need to help them have doubts. If it's needed, leader should persuade people and change their opinions: like bully pulpit of TR, fireside chats of FDR, V for Victory of Churchill, DeGaulle's speeches, frontal assault (he remarked that he would get his reforms done even if it means the collapse of Liberal Democratic Party) and reforms of Koizumi... I mean, if you're elected in some part because of your charisma, why don't you use it on people and troops? For the sake of the nation?

Pulling out of Afghanistan, eh? Alright, so let's say our own security problems are taken care of or whatever. What's gonna happen to Afghans? You're just gonna leave them to eternal battle royale? We started this work; we're gonna finish it. No, we have to.

 

JJH722

7:12 AM ET

September 2, 2009

unconvinced

Interesting that every instance you cited was a case of imminent catastrophe for every nation involved. They were not "wars of choice" by any stretch of the imagination. When there's no choice, there's no choice but to be optimistic. You say "So you're not gonna commit to an ongoing war because people think it's not worth it?" The answer is undoubtedly yes. If it's not worth it, you leave. That's what happens in war. That's why people surrender occasionally. That's how colonialism ended in many cases. What do you advocate? Sending more people for death, disfigurement and mental anguish so that the deaths already piled up won't be in vain? That is ridiculous--and ironically only a "populist" (as you gleefully branded me) would make that argument by playing on the heartstrings of patriotic Americans. We populists have given it 8 years, but somehow we're subject to the whims of public opinion. Interesting line of argument.
What's going to happen to the Afghans? I don't know. For them, this war isn't the Manichean struggle you portay. They lived under the Taliban for 7 or some odd years before we strode in, ostensibly to set up a democratic paradise. Most of the Afghans probably clapped when they demolished that ancient Buddhist monument. If you think Britain could have imposed the Civil Rights Movement on us in 1880, go ahead, but most people are more reasonable about the possibilities of military intervention. Sounds like utopianism rivaling the devotees of Marx to me--I bet that stings the conservatives.
It's unclear to me where al Qaeda is in that country today--yet the revised Obama strategy is to root them out. This is a more limited and reasonable goal, but we're still engaged in impossible nation-building. We can't figure out what we're doing in this country, so I'm immediately skeptical that we can show them how to do it right at the point of a gun. The most prominent international terrorist we've killed recently was in Pakistan (Baitullah Mehsud, likely killer of Benazir Bhutto) and it was done with a hellfire missile rather than soldiers.
But still, what about the Afghans? We go in, tell them we are going to provide democracy and social liberalism, then Karzai turns into a vote-rigging autocrat who gives back-rubs to the warlords that basked in our support back in the carefree days when the premium was on driving the other invader out--rather than establishing democracy--regardless of the now obvious negative consequences for your dear Afghans (can we get over the charade that the US gives a damn?). Hey, "what about" those girls who Karzai would allow to be raped without consequence to their attackers? Mullah Omar got his start defending the honor of a girl who had been raped in his hometown. Eek. That complicates the morality picture you present. Not that the Taliban aren't crazy, but we should probably assess these wars without illusions about our allies or their own people. Karzai certainly has none about us, given that once he stopped getting a weekly briefing from GW he decided that notorious mass murderers proved more useful compatriots. If we do leave, I'm sure he'll be correct. But that is the sign of a survivor, not a fighter. And since he just "won" the latest election, we'll have to stick with him. I don't have much hope for change. Sorry, Barry.
And with this stuff you say about "leaders will be followed"--haven't you noticed that in every single doubt floated in the media by the Obama administration, it comes with the qualifier that the PEOPLE are already doubting the effort. Let's not even get into the fact that Obama sent some 20k troops there already--you must think that's a non-issue when it comes to expressing confidence in the mission. Nobody led the people to their doubt--they are cognizant enough of the steadily escalating number of bodybags arriving at the airport to realize that there is a problem. I don't know if I want to live in the society you advocate: the people are stupid and do whatever the "leader" says, and the "leader" ought to take the advice of the military at all costs--unless he inherits incompetents like Abe did. Whew. Sounds tough to navigate. If this war were an existential struggle for us rather than half-baked nation-building dressed up as terror-fighting, then I'm sure we would win. We would restart the draft and send a million people over there and see success in short order. But it isn't an existential struggle. And the people don't think it is.
Tell me, can the "leader" you place so much stock in succeed if the people have already given up? Or will they follow him? George Bush would be a good counterpoint, no? I'm sure you think Iraq is blossoming into a marvelous democracy. Still, irrespective of progress there today or whether it was destined to be a quagmire, it's hard to deny that the scope of the disaster was so large because Bush went from listening to civilians (Rummy and Wolfowitz, and their handpicked lapdogs in the military), to listening to the military establishment (who just wanted to get the hell out of there rather than teaching their troops how to be Iraqi policemen), to handpicking his own general from outside the establishment who knew how to train troops to be Iraqi policemen. You mock what I advocate as "populism," but if Bush wanted to win in Iraq he should've sacked the military leaders he had before the invasion started. If you are losing a war and you think it should be won, I don't think keeping the generals in place is a good strategy. If FDR had kept the old washed up guys he had at the start of WWII we would've likely lost. MacArthur was kept because of widespread popularity and the very real threat that he would challenge FDR as a Republican candidate. FDR likely hated him and wanted to fire him. Remember what he did to Truman--FDR was being realistic. If you know about Korea, you know MacArthur was likely insane when it came to geopolitics. Go read about where George Marshall came from--he ended up running the whole show after Roosevelt decided he was best fit. He was commanding the "Vancouver Barracks" in 1938. Does that sound like a big job? So, it may be true that McChrystal will clone the Petraeus strategy and turn a few more of our troops into Afghan police, but its going to take a whole hell of a lot more than troops than we have to spare now. And more than anybody over here is willing to send.

 

ZATHRAS

4:09 AM ET

September 2, 2009

Interesting. I would have

Interesting. I would have thought that one of President Obama's most serious errors was in not recognizing the extent of the damage done by his predecessor's incompetent war management and lack of resolve with regard to Afghanistan in particular.

I share some of the doubts about the rather thin policy alternatives being offered now by most of the Obama administration's critics on this subject. Yet I have the persistent feeling that there are an awful lot of people in the American military who believe that we're not succeeding in Afghanistan because we did things wrong before, which means that we will succeed if we do things right now.

History doesn't work that way. In the winter of 2001-02, with the Taliban shattered, al Qaeda routed and all Afghanistan in awe of the speed with which this was done, America had an opportunity to begin constructing an Afghan government able to deliver services to its people. Afghans were glad to be rid of the Taliban, were not unfriendly to the Americans, and yearned for a government able to do more than demand bribes and conspire in the international drug trade. That window of opportunity was not going to stay open forever -- windows of opportunity never do. Years of George Bush's incompetent leadership may have closed this one for good.

Now, in the summer of 2009, Afghanistan has a government, identified by all too many with the United States. It is corrupt; it is dishonest; it conspires in the international drug trade; its officials are interested in protecting the Afghan population only as long as they think Americans are within earshot. I fear that the American military leadership in Afghanistan, understanding this, is thinking that since the Afghan government cannot protect the people, the American military will do the job and wait for the Afghan government to catch up. Given the most charitable assumptions about our Afghan allies, it could be a very long wait, longer than we have.

 

SIMONPETERHONG

4:57 AM ET

September 2, 2009

is that so

I guess some people in Truman Admin. thought quite similarly and pulled out most of American troops from Korea by 1949... I don't think I need to mention the outcome of such decision. S. Korean government was corrupt, and the nation was dirt poor, with a stronger, wealthier enemy above it. People were uneducated and exhausted from 36 years of Japanese occupation. S. Korean officials back then were no less corrupt and dishonest than Afghan officials. But it seems like things aren't so bad over there now. Oh yes, different environment, different people, different era... but is there anything that says it's not gonna happen in Afghanistan? Rugged terrain, divided nation, relatively strong neighbors... there are some similarities between them...

long wait, indeed. Let's wait. Let's look ahead. Soviets? they were not welcomed by Afghans even in the beginning. We've had a better start, and chances only come to you when you keep trying. Nobody gives nothing to no quitters. Afghanistan is too big of a deal to leave alone just because its government is corrupt. What about normal Afghans? Maybe we should be thinking more than bailing out to actually help them and help ourselves. It's too late to quit anyways.

 

JJH722

7:18 AM ET

September 2, 2009

agreed

agreed, Zathras. And simon, afghanistan is not a big deal. Never has been. you won't be saying it was too late if this turns into vietnam. and korea was a conventional war. if kim il sung had been surrounding seoul with guerrilla forces we couldn't have established a single line beyond which neither side would cross.

 

SAINTSIMON

12:34 PM ET

September 2, 2009

This turn of worm was easy to

This turn of worm was easy to predict during primary and presidential campaigns of Obama - he clearly became a 'hawk' on Afghanistan because he believed he needed to show some foreign policy gravitas, a certain comfort level re the use of military force, in order to sway dubious moderates and independents. Iraq obviously wouldn't do seeing as he had opposed both the war and the surge that ostensibly saved it. No, it had to be Afghanistan - but he had no idea what he was committing to, probably didn't in a sense even care - just wanted to win an election and no doubt thought he could talk his way out of anything if he had to. This guy was always an uber liberal who believed he could use his putative powers of persuasion to convince [fool] the not so liberal segments of the polity to just 'trust him' when push came to shove.

But now reality intrudes and fantasy, as always, is forced to fall away. His poll numbers are down, the press, once obsequious towards him, now seems somewhat less timid to question. Having backed himself into a corner, what will he do? Can't blame Bush - he made a campaign promise to correct Bush's abandoning of Afghanistan - how can he now abandon it himself? But if he makes a commitment to step up the effort he abuses the sympathies of the left to which he owes his political fortunes, sympathies which the record shows fit best his own inclinations. Is it in this man to forge a policy that is not beholden to a particular ideology - in other words, if the right thing to do is to stay the course in Afghanistan, will he do that even if it makes him unpopular among the crowd he wants most to be popular with?

Obama's election was the culmination of a well crafted illusion - the important question has always been what happens when that illusion is no longer viable? Obama deliberately embraced Afghanistan, for cynical and deceitful reasons as far as I'm concerned - it will be poetic justice if he ends up paying a dear price for it. Unfortunately, though, we'll all end up paying that price.

Personally, I've always believed Afghanistan was a lost cause - mainly because I think there are only two options, go big or go small - we keep trying for some magical middle ground but COIN is a delusional attempt at compromise: you can't win a war like this by leaving the underlying culture intact - that is idiotic. But regardless of what's the right thing to do now I think it's important to realize that Obama's position has always been a phony one. Whether or not that continues to be the case, suppose we're gonna find out.

 

JJH722

1:49 PM ET

September 2, 2009

you think it's lost and are worried about campaign pledges?

at the moment it is just as risky a political move to pull out of afghanistan as it is to stay and await a disaster. The right wing, which is clearly good at stirring up public debate (look at Dick Cheney defending torture that went beyond the legally prescribed methods; death panels) would have a field day with that. I agree that we are trying to take the middle route between big and small. It just won't work. We need to leave. If Obama breaks campaign pledges to do it, I don't care. GW claimed to be against nation-building. He broke his promise and nobody blamed him because new facts sometimes warrant adjusted policies. Personally, I wish he had retained his aversion to nation-building. If you do the right thing in the long run, campaign pledges are a footnote. You say you can't win a war like this while leaving the underlying culture intact. I'm not sure exactly what that means, but if it means a "warlord" culture with rampant narcotics production and a history of no centralized government, I agree. But I don't know how plausible it is to go back on those things, unless you are the Taliban and are able to annihilate all rivals (they did it once). And to say that Obama's position is "phony" is ridiculous. He added 20k troops right when he took office. Then he sacked the commander who was clearly the wrong man for a "COIN" job as you label it. He put the seemingly best qualified general in there, and now the guy is giving an honest assessment. Here are more newly released honest assessments http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2009/09/20099215511387322.html. If Obama thinks we should leave based on the massive new commitments he would have to make, and you do too, then to think he should keep his campaign promises in light of new facts just for the sake of keeping them is an absurdity. Unless you think national catastrophe is "poetic justice." Even I didn't want the Iraq invasion to fail.

 

WOLFBOY

4:33 PM ET

September 8, 2009

Bush-like commitment

"We are not getting a Bush-like commitment to this war."

The irony here is striking. The president who mostly ignored Afghanistan for seven years after toppling the Taliban, and deprived the war effort there of necessary resources in order to pursue - at length - adventures in Iraq, is being held up as the paragon of steadfast support. I smell politics in that quote.

 

DARKENERGY

7:17 PM ET

September 8, 2009

Seriously

It's tragic that we can find War entertaining. I've been in contact with the enemy multiple times in Iraq and Afghanistan and there is nothing entertaining about it. Listen, I'm glad that we can talking about this in an open forum, but can we move past the partisan finger pointing and get to the nitty gritty which is stablizing Afghanstan and getting our brother and sisters (military, civilian and contractors) out. Any and all reasonable solutions are more than welcome. In the mean time, don't forget about our Service Members, Foreign Service Officers and their families while we work through this.

 

Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.

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