Wednesday, August 5, 2009 - 4:33 PM
The news that two Russian nuclear submarines are patrolling off the eastern coast of the United States brings to mind a similar event from last year, when the Kremlin sent two of its aging Blackjack bombers on a "training mission" into the western hemisphere. The best line at the time was attributed to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. As the decrepit, Cold War-era Blackjacks clunked and sputtered their way to Venezuela, the Pentagon diligently scrambled a few fighter jets to shadow them -- a mission whose real purpose, Gates reportedly remarked, was "search and rescue." That basically sums up my reaction to this recent submarine incident: Worth keeping an eye on, but not worth much else.
What makes this attempt at muscle-flexing more comical still is the official reaction from the deputy chief of staff of Russia's armed forces: Stating that the rationale for the submarine mission is "the fleet shouldn't sit on its hands and be idle" (an interesting image, but OK) and that the reason for the earlier long-range bomber missions was because "we got tired of flying in circles" is much more revealing of Russia's shortcomings as a great power than I'm sure the gentleman had intended. Calling it a "routine" mission is probably not the best approach either. The whole point of these exercises is to goad the United States into behaving as Russia does, which is presumably to lodge loud protests that Moscow is meddling in our "sphere of influence", thereby enabling Russia to hoot and holler about American hypocrisy.
This is the geopolitical equivalent of nanny-nanny-boo-boo. And while it's good to know that our folks at NORAD are monitoring it closely, the best response is to treat it with the nonchalant dismissal it deserves. That, and making sure we're prepared to assist in the event that the submarine sinks.
what if it's more childish than that?
I've wondered if this isn't what passes as a retaliatory gesture to Biden's comments of a few weeks back. A "Yes, we ARE still relevant" moment.
This is a country, after all, that broadcasts pictures of its unofficial leader, half-naked on horseback, as a sign of power.
How about the US government posts an ad on craigslist:
Found. Two nuclear submarines off North American coastline. Presumed lost at sea due to soviet era navigation system malfunction. Original owner may contact President Barack Obama to schedule pickup.
Does the fact that we know their location mean anything...?
Perhaps most striking about this episode is the fact that U.S. was able to continuously track these submarines along the east coast.
The primary role of SSNs during the Cold War was to shadow U.S. SSBNs, and primary part of this role was ensuring that the SSNs could pick up and follow our missile boats. Yet, if we are able to pinpoint the Akula's location and ostensibly follow them around the East coast, one would think that we've already moved our SSBNs away from those areas AND that, in a hypothetical, we could pretty easily take out these Russian attack subs.
This suggests these things are not at all a threat to U.S. forces, and that all the excitement in the press over their deployment is unfounded.
What would be the point of sending them if they weren't spotted and tracked? Two subs sailing down the coast that nobody knows about doesn't have much intimidation factor. And even if the Russians hadn't wanted to be seen, which is unlikely, it doesn't automatically follow that because these two were detected then all Russian subs would be.
A response to Biden in T'bilisi
I think that this is the Russians trying to dispute any claim of a US sphere of influence, as we try to do with the Russians in Eastern Europe and the Caucuses.
http://theschlepper.wordpress.com/2009/08/04/theres-something-in-the-water/#more-58
Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.
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