The "Obama effect" and other faith-based claims

Posted By Christian Brose Tuesday, June 23, 2009 - 3:29 PM Share

I'm really getting tired of things like this:

But privately Obama advisers are crediting his Cairo speech for inspiring the protesters, especially the young ones, who are now posing the most direct challenge to the republic's Islamic authority in its 30-year history.
One senior administration official with experience in the Middle East said, "There clearly is in the region a sense of new possibilities," adding that "I was struck in the aftermath of the president's speech that there was a connection. It was very sweeping in terms of its reach."

This, too, from later in the same article:

Obama's advisers say the outreach may have contributed to the defeat in Lebanese elections a few days later of a coalition led by Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed party, that had been predicted to win. In recent days, administration officials have pointed to the Iranian demonstrations as further evidence of Obama's possible influence in the region.

As a rule, I try not to make claims for which there is no discernable evidence (extolling my own virtue aside). In part, this is because I remember how we in the last administration tried to make the argument that our rhetoric of freedom helped to explain the remarkable events of 2005: Mahmoud Abbas's election as Palestinian president, all those purple fingers in Iraq, the Cedar Revolution that ended Syria's occupation of Lebanon, and so on. In retrospect, it turns out it was about them, not us.

I'm not saying that Obama's speech in Cairo or his general approach to the Middle East did not "inspire" the outcome of Lebanon's election or "influence" the recent uprising in Iran. But I have not seen, read, or heard one fact that leads me to believe how this is the case, nor does the unnamed source above offer anything beyond faith-based assertions. So until some evidence is presented, I'll continue to hold my default position, which is that the behavior of Lebanese and Iranians -- and plenty of other peoples as well -- has virtually everything to do with their own personal, social, economic, and political circumstances and little at all to do with Barack Obama, George W. Bush, or the United States of America, no matter how much we wish it were so.

EXPLORE:IRAN

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ZATHRAS

3:51 AM ET

June 24, 2009

Faith-based

I had assumed posters on this blog do not coordinate their contributions, but still find it amusing that a post objecting to faith-based claims for President Obama's inspirational powers followed right after a post of faith-based claims for the office for faith-based affairs at the State Department.

OHIO CITIZEN

2:59 PM ET

June 24, 2009

"So until some evidence is

"So until some evidence is presented, I'll continue to hold my default position, which is that the behavior of Lebanese and Iranians -- and plenty of other peoples as well -- has virtually everything to do with their own personal, social, economic, and political circumstances and little at all to do with Barack Obama, George W. Bush, or the United States of America, no matter how much we wish it were so"

The evidence has been presented repeatedly for good or for ill. As evidenced by the words of terrorists to the words of political dissidents throughout the world. The personal, social, economic, and political circumstances of the world's citizens have become more interdependent than ever before in the history of the world. The words and actions of the person considered by many to be the leader fo the free world matter enormously because they can move and shake events that directly impact masses. I need only talk to my co-workers from foreign countries to understand this. They say President Obama's words matter very much to them and their families back home. I don't doubt this is probably true for Iranians as well. If a billion people pause to listen to the words of one man, then the words of one man can change the world.

WOLFBOY

3:53 AM ET

June 25, 2009

There is evidence available, Mr. Brose, if you pay attention.

I have read multiple accounts in the last week and a half of positive responses of actual Iranians to Obama's Nowruz address and Cairo speech; try reading more widely.

Anecdotal? sure.

Of great probative value? of course not.

Expected to have a large impact? of course not.

But it is evidence, and it is perfectly reasonable to ascribe some positive impact of these efforts to reach out.

There are polls that get at this question and that could provide a basis for making claims, so there is no reason to simply suppose no impact.

I note also the irony of your suggestion that Obama's remarks should be regarded as presumptively ineffective in light of your insistence last week that Obama should say more so as to have impacts on developments there.

Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.