Posted By Christian Brose Share

By Christian Brose

Those who have read the recent posts from George Packer, Steve Walt, and Matt Duss on the latest doings of the "neo-con cabal" -- ahem, the Foreign Policy Initiative -- must be eagerly awaiting a report of what happened at today's conference on Afghanistan. Well, I won't leave you hanging.

All that you suspect is true. Bill Kristol, wearing a Viking helmet and a bone through his nose, exhorted the participants to invade Chad, just because. He may have listed other countries, but he was speaking in tongues and war whoops half the time, and my Neo-con-to-English translation kept dropping out. Bob Kagan followed, bare-chested (as usual), in full war paint, banging the Mayflower china with a combat boot, shouting that America needed to put 10 million men under arms to extend its hegemony (benevolent, of course) into the Arctic, shouting something about the road to Moscow leading through the North Pole.

I saw this with my own eyes, people.

If only. It would have been a lot more exciting, that's for sure. As it was, the conference was a pretty staid affair. Some might even call it a love-fest. There were countless expressions of support and admiration for President Obama and his new Af-Pak strategy from Kristol and the brothers Kagan, plus most of the other panelists, who aren't neo-cons. People like CNAS president John Nagl, who probably summed up the conference best when he remarked what an amazing show of bipartisan support it was for Obama's policy.

I say all this, believe it or not, to make a more serious point. The thing that always puzzles me about so much of the frothy commentary about the neo-cons is how it misses that their main antagonist always was, and still is today, as much (or probably more) fellow Republicans as it is Democrats.

When the infamous PNAC was founded, Congressional Republicans were on an anti-government crusade, which often included foreign policy -- especially when opposition to humanitarian intervention, nation-building, democracy promotion, increased spending overseas, and internationalism in general served the added purpose of scoring political points against President Clinton. One could even argue that PNAC was set up not to tar and feather Democrats for being weak-kneed appeasers of evil, but to encourage Clinton's more internationalist tendencies, and to give him political cover from the right to do so against his more nationalist, conservative critics. Judging by the conference today, my sense is that FPI has been founded with much the same purpose vis-a-vis Obama.

It's easy for critics of the neo-cons to cast them as marginal thinkers with out-sized influence, along with all the dark conspiracies that implies. Harder, though more honest, is to recognize that the neo-cons are really championing tendencies in U.S. foreign policy that run much deeper in American life than the pockets of their advocacy shops. Yes, the regular cast of characters signed those PNAC letters that get quoted all the time, but at one point or another, so did folks like Jim Webb, Bob Zoellick, Ivo Daalder, John Bolton, Jim Steinberg, Rich Armitage, Dennis Ross, Michael O'Hanlon, Philip Gordon, Richard Holbrooke, and many others who would sooner take your scalp than be called a neo-con.

Indeed, as was apparent today, the latest "conspiracy" is rather mainstream stuff, like supporting Obama's Af-Pak policy, and it enjoys healthy bipartisan support -- just as Clinton's Balkans wars did, and yes, just as Iraq did initially. Criticizing these policies is fair. But those criticisms should be aimed at a broad swath of the foreign policy establishment, on both sides of the aisle, not just at the neo-cons.

But go back to Iraq. Shouldn't the neo-cons be held accountable for their views? Yes. Them and a whole lot of other people -- Senators, Congressmen, and columnists, liberals and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans, who seemly want to believe that the votes they cast and the articles they wrote in support of the war had nothing to do with how we found ourselves in it. Iraq was all the neo-cons' fault, and blaming it on them absolves the rest of us. This is a convenient untruth for a lot of people in this town today.

The fact is, Iraq was a long-standing problem over which reasonable people disagreed, and many of those reasonable people came to believe in the aftermath of 9/11 that war was the answer. That they did says less about the neo-cons, I think, than it does about the prevailing mood at the time in America, and especially in Washington -- the willingness of many people, shocked by a national trauma, and seized by the transformational potential of American power, to support a high-risk course of action over the uncertainty of no action at all. Yes, there are serious criticisms to be made of the Bush administration's case for war, but it's worth going back and reading what Bill Clinton and Al Gore said about Iraq back in the 1990s. Most of their statements are indistinguishable from Bush's.

And here we are again. Obama is escalating America's involvement in a distant war, and like Iraq in 2003 or the Balkans before that, he is doing so with considerable bipartisan support, only a small fraction of which comes from the neo-cons. I support this policy. Maybe it will end tragically. Maybe the critics will be proved right. If so, I won't blame the positions I took on the Foreign Policy Initiative.

 

REXW

7:58 AM ET

April 2, 2009

The blame sheeted home, but include them all

To quote Christian Brose

"But go back to Iraq. Shouldn't the neo-cons be held accountable for their views? Yes. Them and a whole lot of other people -- Senators, Congressmen, and columnists, liberals and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans, who seemly want to believe that the votes they cast and the articles they wrote in support of the war had nothing to do with how we found ourselves in it. Iraq was all the neo-cons' fault, and blaming it on them absolves the rest of us. This is a convenient untruth for a lot of people in this town today."
At the risk of being asked never to write again even though I agree with this paragraph completely, we must also be honest and mention The Washington Post, The New York Times and almost every publication that the once left wing Aussie, Murdoch has in his stable. They were so subservient to the Bush doctrines which came from the hated neocons and without these compliant mouthpieces, the situation would have been less effective and people may have demanded that certain policies, such as torture, had a better coverage and argument before it became part of the rightwing policy. It would never have had such an easy acceptance had the media questioned it as counter to the Geneva Convention. I mean really questioned. Then the activities of vice President Cheney, possibly the most dangerous man of the Iraq period, always appeared in favourable terms in the media. Why? Do we have to wait until the passing of this man before we really start to publish the things he controlled, which included the naive and artless President, like a puppet on a string, bumbling his way through life.
So there are others to add to your list, Christian, of those responsible for this disgraceful period in US history. 4,000 men...what a waste. 200,000 Iraqis and on.
It is almost safe to say that the loss of such numbers even overshadows the US dalliances in South America in the past 50 years, propping up dictators, overthrowing democraticaly elected governments and using the well-honed US arrogance to achieve their aims.....regardless. What the hell did all that achieve as well? They all hate you.
A chance to redeem these acts is just arround the corner.....the Iran - US relationship. It is worth any effort you can make but keep those neocons with their evil single-minded objective (Israel) well away from manipulating the people who need to make this happen.
They all are elected and live in Washinton and have proven in the past, ad nauseum, that they have feet of clay.

 

JJACKSON

10:23 AM ET

April 2, 2009

Coming at this form a slightly different angle.

Coming at this form a slightly different angle.

Good post but does it not beg the question what is wrong with American society, and the West more generally? In that it can launch a war against another nation on such dubious intelligence. Furthermore it did so without any serious questioning from the press or opposition at the time. Possibly the most worrying aspect of the invasion of Iraq in particular, and the repeal of other established international norms of behaviour in general, is the lack of any redress. In civil law if I kill someone the ‘I thought he might be going to buy a gun’ defence is generally deemed weak but we did not even get an ‘oops sorry about that’ to his friends and family. The US did not, and still does not, think it did anything wrong. It seems not to have even considered that deliberately shifting the blame for 9/11 to Iraq followed by claims of solid proof of WMDs, when in reality it had flimsy intelligence should carry some kind of penalty. The government committed two crimes first it perpetrated a fraud upon its own population, conning them Iraq was an existential threat, and then involved other nations in a war of aggression on another Sovereign Nation State. The punishment for the first crime was removal from office but the second crime was not committed by the Bush regime but by the United States of America, and co-conspirators, and has been largely without consequence. I use a modified ‘vale of ignorance test’ to see if such things are just; change the names of the States involved. If Iran invaded a neighbour without justification would we allow that to pass without comment too. What if Iraq did so, perhaps Kuwait, oh sorry I forget that actually happened – remind me was their some kind of sanction in that case?

 

COURTNEYME109

1:47 PM ET

April 2, 2009

When In Doubt - Knock 'Em Out

JJackson - might help to peel off the constraints of Realpolitik and reconsider.

Comparing legit democracies as the same as illegit autocracies is totally suspect in Internat'l Relations and Foreign Policy.

In daemoneoconic ideals - the burden is not on GrEaT sAtAn to prove illegit, intolerant regmes that may or may not fiddle about with WMD, torment their own people and their neighbors, or seem to have to act out against any 'democrazy' in weapons range are safe as milk.

The burden falls on those regimes.

When in doubt - knock 'em out.

 

JJACKSON

8:21 PM ET

April 2, 2009

Courtneyme109 I know I am, to

Courtneyme109

I know I am, to a certain extent, playing devils advocate but which are the legit democracies and who is to choose which countries are grownup enough to play with nuclear weapons? Iran is a democracy (provided you get the Supreme Leaders OK), Egypt is a democracy (if you get Mubarak’s OK), the US is a democracy (if you get big corporate’s OK – you can not realistically play with just grass roots support: money rules). Why limit the criteria to WMDs, should we be selling advanced weapon systems to undemocratic and unstable states? Who was on the 9/11 planes and who financed them? KSA and Yemen are the main providers of man power and Saudis supplied the money. We sold hi-tech weapons to the Shah up until his own people could not be crushed into submission any longer and we are now selling them to the House of Saud. Opinion poll data show the Wahhabists to be more anti-Israeli and more anti-American then the Iranians or Palestinians and KSA is very near North Korea on the democracy scale.
How do you decide which States should be allowed dangerous toys? I would say past behaviour and threats of future violence would be a good starting point. Who has attacked other countries recently? Iraq (Kuwait), the US and friends (Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan), USSR & Georgia (depending how you look at it), Israel (Lebanon and Gaza). The bog is to short to list all the countries (democratic or otherwise) in which the US has at sometime either advocated are participated in ‘regime change’ and Israel – having developed WMDs outside the NPT – are the good guys, despite threatening Iran, and Iran having been adjudged by the NIE & IAEA not to be going for WMDs are the bad guys. We need a system with a rational set of rules based not on how the government was elected or on being on the White House Christmas card list. Obama called for talks with Iran if it ‘unclenched its fist’ but when was it clenched? Is Iran calling for the overthrow of the US government and threatening it with force or is the US government calling for regime change in Iran and threatening the use of force? I can not see any real improvement in Global Security unless it is accompanied by a willingness to view the myriad problems from both sides. We are not always right, or wrong, but must be willing to entertain more than one very blinkered view of reality and accept that they may not have any reason to think we will behave rationally or peacefully and that an impartial view of events may not show us as the paragon we seem to see in the mirror.

 

COURTNEYME109

4:58 AM ET

April 3, 2009

Easy!

Actually quite easy - consider the Straussian method (which Realpolitik fanboys will totally freak out about btw)

"Which one of these things is NOT like the other?"

You say "I can not see any real improvement in Global Security unless it is accompanied by a willingness to view the myriad problems from both sides."

Really? And exactly why praytell should GrEaT sAtAn be concerned with regional designs or concerns for cats that fear facebook? Or girls? Or gays? Or fun and free choice?

In fact - what you suggest (as born out by the sorry history of Realpolitik) actually decreases stability.

When illegit, unlected regimes (spare us the Persian version - please) cross the aforementioned thresholds in the previous response to yours, there is little reason to even tolerate their existence let alone sit down and cut deals and hope for the best with intolerant oathbreakers.

 

JJACKSON

8:41 AM ET

April 3, 2009

I am sorry that I did not

I am sorry that I did not understand most of your last post.
I am not sure where the cats, girls and gays fit into the relationship between nation states that I thought we were discussing. As to Strauss and Realpolitik this has more bearing but I am not sure it helps nor am I willing to be shoehorned into anyone else’s political philosophy - beyond accepting that realism (with a small R) is probably a good stating point. Two realities need to be included in our thinking both of which I thought I had previously highlighted. Firstly the real, but regrettable, reality that big powerful nations can behave badly without fear of the consequences that would befall lesser states. Secondly that our relationship with other states should bear a closer relationship to their natural behaviour rather than their provoked behaviour. This may need a little elucidation. Who would be our natural friends? Democracies possibly but more importantly states which respect the rule of law, freedom of expression/press, states that respect their citizens and want to peacefully coexist with other states. This seems like a good starting point for me but there are a number of states which score similarly on these criteria and yet are miles apart in the friend/foe pecking order. I would argue that KSA and Iran should be close neighbours on this list and yet are not; furthermore successive governments seem disinterested in rectifying that. Other obvious anomalies are states like Cuba and Israel. The application of double standards like this strain relations with countries who do not share our peculiar classification system. The problem is exacerbated when there are international treaty obligations that have clear rules about how we should deal with states based on their actions not our pecking order. The NPT and our dealings with India, Israel, Iran and Pakistan being the most prominent example.

“When illegit, unlected regimes (spare us the Persian version - please) cross the aforementioned thresholds in the previous response to yours, there is little reason to even tolerate their existence let alone sit down and cut deals and hope for the best with intolerant oathbreakers.” This is where we are genuinely miles apart and your argument departs from any logic. Why should we not look at Iran’s case? Why is it illegitimate? It is at least as democratic as any other state in the Gulf region and far more democratic that most of our closest allies. It replaced the Shah, who was a tyrant, and was definitely not democratic – but we had no problem with. Before that came Mossadegh who was democratically elected but was unwilling to accept BP’s terms for Persia’s oil so we engineered a coup and imposed the Shah who ended up as little better than Saddam. What Iran did do was hold hostage – or more accurately failed to secure the release of - some American diplomats in the early days of the revolution but given our imposition of (by way of a CIA engineered coup) and support for the Shah while he was brutalising his people this seems fairly trivial by comparison. Intolerant works for both sides and I do not know what specifically you were referring to with 'oathbreakers' but I suspect that that also could also be applied to both sides.
In the interest of full disclosure I am British but have no qualms about using ‘we’, as I have throughout, as my government has been in lockstep with yours (assuming you are a US citizen) on Iran sanctions, Troops in Iraq & Afghanistan and we are now selling Eurofighters to the Saudis.
P.S. the whole Great Satan/Axis of Evil name calling is an example of why these distortions and mistrust are perpetuated. They inflame hatred and misunderstanding in the domestic audience for domestic political reasons and serve no useful purpose in IR/FP.

 

COURTNEYME109

7:31 AM ET

April 4, 2009

That was weak

JJackson,

Interesting that you mentioned nom de'guerres as Great Satan or Axis of Evil.

Is that not the point of your commentary?

That depending on the view, both are equally legit, neither is better or preferred over the other - specifically despotism versus democracy?

Perhaps this may help.

Every threat to internat'l order for which Great Satan had to handle after the Cold War involved a government that fell short of Western and economic standards.

Every security problem that the American government felt called upon to address would be alleviated, if not solved altogether, if the regimes responsible for them could be remade to American specs:

Tolerant, egalitarian societies with a penchant for periodic, transparent elections, a free, uncensored press, a nat'l treasury under public scrutiny, a military under civie control, an independent judiciary under elected Gov oversight.

 

JMS180

4:16 PM ET

April 2, 2009

bravo sir

Enough said.

 

WOLFBOY

4:51 PM ET

April 2, 2009

Lots of silliness in this post

Lots of silliness in this post.

Very funny, the bit about the viking helmet and the bone, and an effective rhetorical ploy to distract from the actual criticism of many of these individuals, like Kristol, which was not that they are prone to rape and pillage, but rather the far more straightforward fact of their enthusiastic advocacy of war in Iraq, and their predictions of all the good that would follow.

The very unflattering role of congress in the war is not lost on any commentaries of the war that I am familiar with. In most cases, however, members of congress were simply persuaded that invasion was necessary to halt WMD programs. They did not see the war as a good in its own right, that would lead to recognition of Israel, establishment of a bulwark and military base in opposition to Iran, the demise of OPEC and dominoes of democracy. This is the special province of the war enthusiasts.

To suggest that these war enthusiasts (I won't get into who is or isn't a neocon) were not more closely aligned in the last decade with Republicans than Democrats is ridiculous.

The war enthusiasts were badly wrong, and the consequences were very large. Still, they themselves mostly refuse to take responsibility for their role, conceding as mistakes only such things as 'misjudging the degree to which Saddam had crushed the spirit of the Iraqi people.'

For this they merit our disdain, or even contempt, and their analysis and prognostications should be received only very skeptically.

You are right that much of the US was prepared, after 9/11, to wreak violence on someone else. You are wrong to discount the role of the war enthusiasts, however. I believe most Americans were prepared to go to war to get the WMDs, but not to pursue the other grandiose goals of the enthusiasts.

Thus a case had to be made. Let's not pretend, either, that this was done without intentional deceit. Bush's Niger claim in the 2003 SOTU was clearly crafted to sidestep the fact of the disagreement of US intelligence. And this originated in forged documents.

Rest assured the enthusiasts would be the first ones taking credit had their rosy scenarios come about. Likewise, they deserve the lion's share of the blame.

 

REXW

10:27 PM ET

April 2, 2009

Response to jjackson

You have to a degree ruined my day. I have been trying to avoid the sale and distribution of weapons as it is a subject that warrants a UN Assembly all by itself. Then when you venture into the world of "replacing" governments, supporting dictators, "regime change" and just direct your attention to South America alone, you will have a years reading on this subject alone. If you ever find the US NOT involved in these matters please advise. In 50 years, the US has gained nothing in that geography. Nobody likes the US south of the border, so to speak. Some of the perpetrators, Kissinger for example, still enjoy respected status in the US and yet the number of people murdered in his time as Secretary is astronomical. Go and visit Chile. Nothing to be proud of there. Nothing to be proud of anywhere! Probably some of those CIA trigger men are still getting US government checks each week and still plot and plan as best they can the next dalliance into the countries of those who may have dared to elect a socialist government or even a President or Prime Minister that someone in State doesn't like particularly. Doesn't fit the mould, that kind of thing.
So while we are currently enjoying the hopeful outcomes of a G20, a similar stucture shouild be formed to ensure that such stupidity as displayed by the likes of Bush and Cheney, led along by the nose by the neocons, cannot happen again. Words, I am afraid. It will never happen. The US military- industrial complex is too powerful. How many in that group are on the verge of bankruptcy in these hard times. NOT ONE.
Must mean something.

 

Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.

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