Friday, May 7, 2010 - 11:18 AM

Watching Greeks fire-bomb their banks, shut down their airports and ruin the tourist trade that is their economy's main prospect, I can't help but hear Virgil reprised. In that Roman poet's great narrative The Aeneid, survivors of the Trojan War seek a place to start anew, after much difficulty founding what will become the Roman Empire. It's rough going, and after much hard luck and stormy seas, the Trojan women burn the ships in order to prevent the men returning them all to sea.
They knew the Sybil (a rough approximation to an oracle for the Greeks) had prophesied that when they "quit at last of the sea's dangers / for whom still greater are in store on land... wars, vicious wars / I see ahead, and Tiber foaming in blood." Seeing the fleet in flames, Ascanius' reaction is "but your own hopes are what you burn!" And so it is with the Greeks -- they burn their own hopes by such unwillingness to do the unpleasant but necessary belt tightening.
Tourism provides one in five jobs in the Greek economy and a full sixteen percent of its gross domestic product. Being tied to location, it cannot be manufactured elsewhere. Being tied to history and culture, it is inherently Greek. And the best way to attenuate the effects of the austere cutbacks in government spending necessitated by Greece's financial crisis is to grow their economy as fast as possible. The debt to GDP ratio goes down both by reducing the numerator and increasing the denominator. Yet the Greek riots against the austerity program are sure to diminish tourism.
It is difficult not to sympathize with German hesitation to bail Greece out. Germany has labored for nearly 20 years to bring the former East Germany up to par with the West. Greece leapt into the euro on questionable accounting and proceeded to splash around the cheap credit that German stolidity in finances extended to the rest of the eurozone. One in three Greeks is a government employee. Hairdressers can retire at age 50 with full pensions because their jobs are categorized as hazardous.
But now much more outrageous is that than our Foreign Service Officer's Union refusing rewarding diplomats that serve in war zones? When Secretary Rice tried to give preferential promotion to diplomats that volunteered for service in Iraq or Afghanistan, the union representatives argued that every posting is dangerous -- as though volunteering to serve in Iraq took no more courage than volunteering to serve in Costa Rica. Currently two-thirds of foreign postings are designated as hazardous duty posts.
The state of our public finances is not as bad as Greece's, but we'll get there fast. Current and future obligations already incurred by our government amount to 500% of our GDP. And President Obama's budget will triple our already staggering national debt by 2020.
What may -- may -- save America from Greece's fate is that public outrage is building at our government spending money we don't have. When California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger tried to move against public sector unions in 2005, voters rejected his ballot initiatives. Californians cannot yet bring themselves to make the hard choices Greece is now having imposed on it by the IMF and its EU allies. New Jersey governor Chris Christie seems more successful, perhaps aided by greater public awareness of the parlous state of government finances. The hold of "entitlements" and public sector unions over government finances needs to be broken -- otherwise we really will be Greece.
Markets will not bankroll U.S. profligacy forever. No one can say when the chill will start, but once it does -- as Greece's example demonstrates -- the effects are dramatic. The longer we stall before facing up to the unpleasant reductions we must make, the more draconian will be the demands. As the spiraling cost of reassuring markets of the EU's commitment to support Greece demonstrates, it's much better to beat markets to the reckoning.
Here again Virgil offers sound advice. As the Sybil gives Aeneas instructions to Hades, she cautions:
The way downward is easy from Averinus.
Black Dis' door stands open night and day.
But to retrace your steps to heaven's air,
There is the trouble, there is the toil.
It's easy to become Greece. But it's very hard to get out of their predicament.
LOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/Getty Images
Thursday, April 29, 2010 - 4:46 PM

Europe's financial difficulties were predictable, but they have been unfolding at a startling clip. This has brought out different reactions in different commentators. Paul Krugman, for example, is preparing to hide under a table. I am no less impressed by the potential for disaster, but I am also struck by the undemocratic nature of major deliberations in Europe and by parallels here in the United States.
The pace of Europe's response to Greece's mounting woes has been rather stately. This is in spite of some fairly blunt calls for urgent action. From the Financial Times:
"Far too much time has been wasted on inaction," said Angel Gurría, secretary-general of the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. "We should have intervened two or three months ago. The markets have developed negatively since then, unnecessarily. That's why we have to act now, quickly and decisively."
And yet Europe's summit meeting appears set for May 10. Why the delay? There is an important German election on May 9. From the New York Times:
The North Rhine-Westphalia election has the potential to upset the existing balance of power. At stake is not only the state legislature, but also control for Mrs. Merkel's coalition over the little-watched upper house of Parliament, the Bundesrat, which has to sign off on legislation. Billions of dollars in assistance for Greece may not play well with voters in a state with its own financial problems.
"May not play well" is an understatement. A German poll found that only 16 percent of Germans support a Greek bailout while 65 percent are opposed. I am not an advocate of governing by referendum (a number of years living in California clarified the problems with that approach). Yet the avoidance of the electorate on such matters is deeply problematic.
LOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/Getty Images
Wednesday, November 4, 2009 - 9:29 PM

By Phil Levy
Wherever else the status quo ante may reign, the Obama administration has brought change to the tradition of sending foreign dignitaries home with lovely parting gifts. Back in September, the chairman of China's legislature was dispatched with a new set of tire tariffs. Now, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been sent home with an auto jobs program that won't start.
This latest gesture flows from the U.S. government's majority ownership stake in General Motors. GM is a global company and its empire includes ownership in a European subsidiary, Opel. Half of Opel's 50,000 employees are in Germany. Thus, when GM was facing bankruptcy this spring, the German government took a strong interest. It offered a $2.2 billion loan to help Opel survive and preserve German jobs.
The Obama administration guided GM through bankruptcy and on to a distinctive ownership structure. U.S. taxpayers now hold a 61 percent stake in GM, with an additional 17.5 percent stake granted to the United Auto Workers. The bankruptcy process concluded in early July, at which point GM set about trying to become lean and mean. One aspect of that was a move to sell Opel to a Russian-backed Canadian group called Magna.
What does any of this auto arcana have to do with foreign policy? Aren't these just the obscure fiddlings from the back of the business pages? Well, consider the level at which this has been handled in foreign governments. In August, when GM was still pondering whether to sell Opel to Magna:
German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed her regret at General Motors' failure to choose a buyer for its German unit Opel, and said that a decision was 'urgently' needed for the carmaker's future.
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was on the phone with his U.S. counterpart and reported, "Secretary Clinton said she would communicate the German government's position within the U.S. administration."
That sounds a lot like a foreign policy issue. There's more. After announcing its decision to sell Opel to Magna in September, GM's board reversed itself yesterday. Here was some of the commentary from abroad:
General Motors' behavior toward workers is completely unacceptable," German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle told reporters the morning after GM's shock news, adding: "General Motors' behavior toward Germany is completely unacceptable."
In Moscow, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin hinted the battle for carmaker Opel was not over..."
President Obama has made clear that he never aspired to run a car company and would like to get out of the auto business. But the administration is in the same position as an absentee landlord of a rundown property -- responsible, like it or not. The promises that GM would be run in a hands-off, all-business fashion have not been credible either to members of Congress or leaders abroad. (This is not the only uncomfortable aspect of GM's awkward ownership structure; GM's minority owners, the UAW, recently refused to cut costs for GM's private-sector competitor, Ford. Imagine.)
If the administration is truly eager not to run a car company, it could always divest. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) put forward a plan to do just that in July. It was voted down in the Senate, with leading Democrats explaining that the time was not right. That raises the question of just what the administration is waiting for. Unless the government plans further infusions of cash into GM, or plans to intervene in GM's decision-making, what benefit could there be to holding on to the company and inviting unwelcome domestic and foreign pressures?
One possibility is that the government is better able to predict GM's worth than the market. Perhaps the administration's financial seers believe they can time the recent run-up in stock market prices and ride it further with their $60 billion bet on GM. Alternatively, the divestment delay may just serve to hide the ultimate cost of the administration's auto intervention.
Whatever the reason, the entanglements deepen. The administration has been asked to provide further billions for GMAC, a key financier of car purchases (formerly known as General Motors Acceptance Corporation). Overseas, the Chinese have launched an investigation of U.S. auto subsidies (the pot calling the kettle red?).
And we still have the issue of German Opel angst. Perhaps this is why President Obama declined Chancellor Merkel's invitation to travel to Germany to celebrate the anniversary of the Cold War's End. Maybe he was worried about what she'd give him in return.
Bundesregierung/Steffen Kugler-Pool/Getty Images
Shadow Government is a blog about U.S. foreign policy under the Obama administration, written by experienced policy makers from the loyal opposition and curated by Peter D. Feaver and William Inboden.
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